Language:
English
Pages:
Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
Edition:
Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
Parallel Title:
Beckerman, Paul How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be?
Keywords:
Bank Assets
;
Banks and Banking Reform
;
Central Bank
;
Currencies and Exchange Rates
;
Debt Markets
;
Economic Stabilization
;
Economic Theory and Research
;
Emerging Markets
;
Exchange
;
Exchange Rate
;
External Debt
;
Finance
;
Finance and Financial Sector Development
;
Financial System
;
Fiscal Defic Future
;
Government Borrowing
;
Government Defic Inflation
;
Instruments
;
Interest
;
Interest Rates
;
Levy
;
Liabilities
;
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
;
Private Sector Development
;
Prof Reserve
;
Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures
;
Stocks
;
Bank Assets
;
Banks and Banking Reform
;
Central Bank
;
Currencies and Exchange Rates
;
Debt Markets
;
Economic Stabilization
;
Economic Theory and Research
;
Emerging Markets
;
Exchange
;
Exchange Rate
;
External Debt
;
Finance
;
Finance and Financial Sector Development
;
Financial System
;
Fiscal Defic Future
;
Government Borrowing
;
Government Defic Inflation
;
Instruments
;
Interest
;
Interest Rates
;
Levy
;
Liabilities
;
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
;
Private Sector Development
;
Prof Reserve
;
Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures
;
Stocks
Abstract:
March 2000 - A spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a specified vector of country macroeconomic objectives. Beckerman describes a spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a policymaker's vector of principal macroeconomic objectives (including real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, and international reserve accumulation). The model focuses on the monetary accounts, applying balance-of-payments forecasts formulated separately but based on the same macroeconomic objectives. The model is a consistency exercise, intended as part of a broader consistency exercise for a given macroeconomy. It offers one more perspective on the question of how large a government deficit should be - a perspective that can be used in conjunction with others. For each forecast period, the model determines consistent period-end and period-average stocks for the economy's outstanding central bank assets and liabilities and government obligations. It applies forecasting assumptions about interest rates to forecast central bank profit-and-loss flows, and takes account of these in determining the overall flow of resources that would be available to finance the government deficit. An annex describes a (purely illustrative) simulation carried out during 1999 for Ecuador. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to strengthen the tools for macroeconomic policy analysis and planning in the region's economies. The author may be contacted at pbeckermanworldbank.org
URL:
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