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  • 2015-2019  (14)
  • 2018  (14)
  • Avvisati, Francesco  (8)
  • Fournier, Jean-Marc  (6)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (14)
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1494
    Keywords: Governance-Ansatz ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Staatsbankrott ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper provides robust empirical evidence that government effectiveness is a key determinant of sovereign defaults. Government effectiveness is measured by a broad-based perception index of the Worldwide Governance Indicators database (WGI) disseminated by the World Bank. Public debt and sovereign default data cover both external and internal government debt. In a systematic and demanding robustness check with any possible sub-sample of a large set of control variables, the effect of government effectiveness is almost always robust. In addition, the effects of the five other main indicators of the WGI database on default risk are also investigated, showing that the rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption and voice and accountability are also robustly linked with default risk. Regressions with the mortality of settlers as an instrument indicate a causal effect from government effectiveness to sovereign default.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1500
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Anleihe ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Eurozone ; CAPM ; Education ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper compares supply and demand to assess to what extent there can be a market for GDP-linked bonds (GLBs). For the government side, simulations illustrate the debt-stabilisation property of GLBs. These simulations consider shock persistence with a VAR structure and large events with shocks drawn from the residuals. Countries where shock persistence and the standard deviation of the interest rate – growth rate differential scaled with the debt level are higher reap more benefits from GLBs and hence can accept a larger risk premium on GLBs. For the investors’ side, risk premia compensating for GDP volatility are calculated with a CAPM, considering not only the size of growth shocks and their correlation with market prices, but also their persistence. Calculations are made with simplifying assumptions going against the case of GLBs: in particular, the possible reduction in the default risk premium is ignored. Even so, both high-risk and low-risk countries can benefit from GLBs: the ones that have to pay a larger risk premium are those that need this insurance against debt crises the most.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1465
    Keywords: Öffentliche Ausgaben ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Soziale Integration ; Staatsquote ; Finanzpolitik ; Education ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: New indicators measuring the effects of public spending on inclusive growth have been constructed using recent empirical work by Fournier and Johansson (2016) and a recent public finance dataset (Bloch et al., 2016). A first set of indicators combines information on the mix of public spending. Each spending item share is multiplied with an estimated coefficient from growth and inequality equations to build both a growth and an income distribution component, which is then summed up to an aggregate inclusive growth indicator. The spending mix analysis cannot, however, measure the effectiveness of public spending within individual spending items, which is difficult to observe in a comparable manner across countries. A second set of indicators attempts to at least partly overcome this limitation by including information on the size and perceived effectiveness of governments. The average of the spending mix indicator and the size and effectiveness indicator provides an indicative overall indicator on the effects of public spending on inclusive growth. The analysis suggests that countries with a counter-cyclical fiscal stance typically have a public spending structure that is more supportive of inclusive growth. There is also a striking link between the growth component of the public spending mix indicator and the output gap: the capacity of the public finances to support inclusive growth deteriorated markedly in the countries hardest hit during the recent crisis.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1493
    Keywords: Governance-Ansatz ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Staatsbankrott ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of structural characteristics on debt limits of middle income countries. Two equations relate the probability of default to the interest rate. First, the probability of default is estimated with a logit model. Second, the assumption of non-arbitrage opportunity on the sovereign bond market relates the interest rate, the probability of default and the recovery rate. This model leads to three situations: a single and stable solution at low debt, multiple equilibria with stable and unstable solutions at intermediate debt, and a single solution with dissuasively high risk-premium beyond a debt threshold: this defines the debt limit. It reflects the empirical evidence on default determinants: it increases with perceived government effectiveness, the export to GDP ratio and the expected recovery rate and decreases with the commodity export to GDP ratio, the size of growth shocks, the share of defaults in neighbouring countries, the risk-free rate and investors’ risk aversion. Debt limits are highly sensitive to the expected recovery rate, reflecting the importance of credibility. The multiple equilibria case illustrates the risk of self-fulfilling crises: interest rate shocks can trigger the default below the debt limit.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper no. 25 (December 2018)
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.25
    Keywords: Öffentliche Finanzen ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Soziale Integration ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Tax and spending reforms offer numerous opportunities to promote inclusive growth. There is potential for so-called win-win reforms that simultaneously boost economic output and enhance income equality. Other changes in the structure of public finances will produce benefits only along a single dimension, while some involve trade-offs between average income gains and adverse distributional effects. Empirical analyses of the experience of OECD countries provide evidence about which tax and spending reforms influence prosperity and income distribution -- and by how much.
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 p.)
    Series Statement: OECD Education Working Papers no.167
    Keywords: Education
    Abstract: Resilience refers to the capacity of individuals to prosper despite encountering adverse circumstances. This paper defines academic resilience as the ability of 15-year-old students from disadvantaged backgrounds to perform at a certain level in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) in reading, mathematics and science that enables them to play an active role in their communities and prepares them to make the most of lifelong-learning opportunities. Using data from the most recent PISA cycles, this paper explores changes in the share of resilient students over time (2006-2015); highlights the importance of school environments and resources in mitigating the risk of low achievement for disadvantaged students; and identifies school-level factors that are associated with the likelihood of academic resilience among socio-economically disadvantaged students. Analyses reveal that several countries were able to increase the share of resilient students over time, reflecting improvements in the average performance of students, or a weaker relationship between socio-economic status and performance. In the vast majority of education systems examined, the likelihood of academic resilience among disadvantaged students is lower in schools where students report a negative classroom climate. The paper concludes by exploring school policies and practices that are associated with a positive classroom climate.
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  • 7
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (6 p.)
    Series Statement: PISA à la loupe no.80
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe In which countries and schools do disadvantaged students succeed?
    Keywords: Education
    Abstract: D’après les données de l’enquête PISA, en moyenne, dans les pays de l’OCDE, trois élèves sur quatre se situant dans le quartile inférieur du statut socio-économique n’atteignent au mieux que le niveau de compétence de base (niveau 2) en compréhension de l’écrit, en mathématiques ou en sciences. Cependant, en Allemagne, au Canada, en Corée, au Danemark, en Estonie, en Finlande, à Hong-Kong (Chine), en Irlande, au Japon, en Norvège, aux Pays-Bas, à Singapour, en Slovénie et au Viet Nam, plus de 30 % des élèves défavorisés atteignent au moins le niveau 3 de compétence dans l’ensemble des domaines d’évaluation de l’enquête PISA 2015 – et peuvent donc être considérés comme « résilients sur le plan scolaire ». Au niveau 3 de compétence, les élèves commencent à faire preuve de capacités à : dégager la signification d’un texte et parvenir à une compréhension détaillée à partir de multiples fragments indépendants d’information en compréhension de l’écrit ; établir des relations proportionnelles et se livrer à une interprétation et un raisonnement simples dans le cadre de la résolution d’un problème mathématique ; et appréhender des sujets qui ne leur sont pas familiers en sciences – autant de compétences au fondement de la réussite et de la poursuite de l’apprentissage tout au long de la vie. D’après les données collectées sur une période de dix ans dans le cadre de l’enquête PISA (en 2006, 2009, 2012 et 2015), plusieurs pays sont parvenus à accroître le pourcentage d’élèves résilients sur le plan scolaire parmi ceux se situant dans le quartile inférieur du statut socio-économique.
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (5 p.)
    Series Statement: PISA in Focus no.80
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Dans quel pays et établissements les élèves défavorisés réussissent-ils ?
    Keywords: Education
    Abstract: PISA 2015 data show that, on average across OECD countries, as many as three out of four students from the lowest quarter of socio-economic status reach, at best, only the baseline level of proficiency (Level 2) in reading, mathematics or science. While in Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong (China), Ireland, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovenia and Viet Nam, more than 30% of disadvantaged students scored at Level 3 or above in all PISA subjects in 2015, and can thus be considered “academically resilient”. Students who perform at Level 3 begin to demonstrate the ability to construct the meaning of a text and form a detailed understanding from multiple independent pieces of information when reading. They can work with proportional relationships and engage in basic interpretation and reasoning when solving mathematics problems; and they can handle unfamiliar topics in science. Such skills are the foundations for success and further learning later in life. PISA data collected over a decade (in 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2015) show that several countries have been able to increase the share of academically resilient students among those in the bottom quarter of socio-economic status.
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  • 9
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (52 p.)
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Public finance structure and inclusive growth
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Il existe de nombreuses possibilités pour réformer la fiscalité et les dépenses publiques de manière à promouvoir davantage de croissance et d’inclusion sociale. En particulier, il est possible de mener des réformes qui améliorent l’activité économique tout en réduisant les écarts de revenu. D’autres ajustements de la structure des finances publiques vont produire des avantages pour une seule de ces deux dimensions. Enfin, certaines réformes appellent un compromis entre une amélioration du revenu moyen et des effets distributifs défavorables. Des analyses économétriques de l’expérience acquise par les pays de l’OCDE fournissent des résultats empiriques sur quelles sont les réformes de la fiscalité et des dépenses qui ont une influence significative sur la prospérité et la distribution des revenus – et de combien.
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  • 10
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (5 p.)
    Series Statement: PISA in Focus no.88
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Performance et climat des établissements : Quel lien avec l’expérience des enseignants ?
    Keywords: Education
    Abstract: Research studies indicate that experienced teachers are more effective, but also suggest multiple explanations why this might be the case – whether because teachers gain valuable skills on the job and through formal professional development opportunities, or because the least effective teachers tend to quit teaching earlier, while more effective teachers remain in the profession. Each of these possible reasons has distinct implications for policy: from increasing hiring standards, improving teacher training and raising the attractiveness of the teaching profession, to ensuring that novice teachers receive the necessary support to quickly learn the tools of the trade and taking measures to prevent good teachers from dropping out of the profession.
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  • 11
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (5 p.)
    Series Statement: PISA à la loupe no.88
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe How are school performance and school climate related to teachers’ experience?
    Keywords: Education
    Abstract: Les élèves des établissements les plus performants obtiennent, en moyenne, des scores nettement supérieurs aux évaluations PISA à ceux de leurs pairs des établissements les moins performants. Certains aspects du climat de l’établissement, tels que le climat de discipline dans les cours de sciences, varient aussi sensiblement entre les établissements. Ces variations inter-établissements de la performance et du climat de discipline sont fortement liées aux différences de statut socio-économique de l’effectif d’élèves des établissements. En outre, les établissements où les enseignants sont plus expérimentés tendent à obtenir de meilleurs résultats aux évaluations PISA et présentent, en classe, un climat plus propice à l’apprentissage.
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (6 p.)
    Series Statement: PISA in Focus no.85
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Dans quels pays les enseignants les plus qualifiés et expérimentés exercent-ils dans les établiseements les plus difficiles ?
    Keywords: Education
    Abstract: Teachers are the most important school resource. In every country, teachers’ salaries and training represent the greatest share of expenditure on education; and this investment in teachers can have significant returns. Research shows that being taught by the best teachers can make a real difference in the learning and life outcomes of otherwise similar students. But not all students are equal when it comes to access to high-quality teaching. In fact, PISA data show that there are inequities in access to experienced and qualified teachers in many countries, and that they are related to the gap in learning outcomes between advantaged and disadvantaged students.
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  • 13
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (5 p.)
    Series Statement: PISA à la loupe no.75
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Does the quality of learning outcomes fall when education expands to include more disadvantaged students?
    Keywords: Education
    Abstract: Les taux de scolarisation dans l’enseignement secondaire ont dans l’ensemble enregistré une hausse considérable au cours des dernières décennies. Cette expansion se reflète aussi dans les données de l’enquête PISA, en particulier pour les pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire. Entre 2003 et 2015, la population totale de jeunes de 15 ans éligibles à la participation à l’enquête PISA a ainsi augmenté de plus de 1.1 million d’élèves en Indonésie, de plus de 400 000 élèves au Brésil et en Turquie, et de plus de 300 000 élèves au Mexique. Cette expansion bienvenue de l’accès à l’éducation rend plus difficile l’interprétation de l’évolution dans le temps des scores moyens obtenus dans le cadre de l’enquête PISA. L’élargissement de la couverture de l’enquête peut en effet entraîner une sous-estimation des progrès réellement accomplis par les systèmes d’éducation. Les enquêtes auprès des ménages montrent souvent que les enfants issus de foyers défavorisés, de minorités ethniques ou de zones rurales sont plus exposés au risque de ne pas suivre ou terminer le premier cycle du secondaire. En général, l’accès de groupes de population auparavant exclus à des niveaux supérieurs d’enseignement entraîne l’augmentation du pourcentage d’élèves peu performants inclus dans les échantillons PISA.
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  • 14
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (6 p.)
    Series Statement: PISA à la loupe no.85
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe In which countries do the most highly qualified and experienced teachers teach in the most difficult schools?
    Keywords: Education
    Abstract: Les enseignants constituent la ressource scolaire principale. Dans tous les pays, leur salaire et leur formation représentent la part la plus importante des dépenses d’éducation – un investissement par ailleurs susceptible d’avoir des rendements considérables. Les travaux de recherche montrent ainsi que le fait de recevoir leur instruction des meilleurs enseignants peut avoir une réelle incidence sur la réussite scolaire et personnelle d’élèves par ailleurs similaires. Toutefois, tous les élèves ne sont pas égaux en termes d’accès à un enseignement de qualité. Les données de l’enquête PISA révèlent ainsi l’existence, dans de nombreux pays, d’inégalités d’accès à des enseignants expérimentés et qualifiés, ainsi que la relation de ces inégalités avec les écarts de résultats d’apprentissage entre élèves favorisés et défavorisés.
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