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  • Christiaensen, Luc  (5)
  • Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes  (3)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (8)
  • Boston, MA : Safari
  • Agriculture  (8)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Does Agricultural Intensification Pay? (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (59 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Aihounton, Ghislain Does Agricultural Intensification Pay?
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Farm Performance ; Food Security ; Intensification ; Rice Farmers ; Rural Transformaiton ; Rural Transformation ; Smallholder Labor Productivity ; Specialization
    Abstract: Modern inputs and mechanization are promoted across Africa to raise smallholder labor productivity and broker the structural transformation. Yet, adoption has remained low and the implications for returns to labor and labor allocation remain poorly understood. This paper explores the effects of different intensification packages on farm performance, market orientation, and food security using data from lowland rice farmers in Cote d'Ivoire. Employing a multinomial treatment effect model, the findings reveal that intensification increases land and labor productivity, especially when agro-chemicals and mechanized land preparation are combined. Returns to labor double to triple, inducing specialization and greater market orientation as well as greater food security, while productively releasing agricultural labor for other activities. Labor in agriculture becomes more waged. The gender balance remains the same. Child labor input does not decrease. The findings call for greater attention to labor productivity and confirm that agricultural intensification can pay and enhance rural transformation
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10405
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Agriculture and Food Security ; Economic Shocks ; Economic Theory and Research ; Food Prices ; Inflation ; Machine Learning Advances ; Macroeconomic Monitoring ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments re-main limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly-and logistically often infeasible-direct measurement. The methods have wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10559
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent with Macroeconomic Forecasts (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent with Macroeconomic Forecasts
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Economic Shocks ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Crises ; Food Insecurity ; Food Security ; Food Security Policy ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Humanitarian Needs ; Machine Learning ; Macro-Economic Projection ; Pre-Pandemic Food Security ; Social Development ; Vulnerability
    Abstract: Motivated by the deterioration in global food security conditions, this paper develops a parsimonious machine learning model to derive a multi-year outlook of global severe food insecurity from macro-economic projections. The objective is to provide forecasts that are internally consistent with wider economic assessments, allowing both food security policies and economic development policies to be informed by a cohesive set of expectations. The model is validated on holdout data that explicitly test the ability to forecast new data from history and extrapolate beyond observed intervals. It is then applied to the World Economic Outlook database of April 2022 to project the severely food insecure population across all 144 World Bank lending countries. The analysis estimates that the global severely food insecure population may remain above 1 billion through 2027 unless large-scale interventions are made. The paper also explores counterfactual scenarios, first to investigate additional risks in a downside economic scenario, and second, to investigate whether restoring macroeconomic targets is sufficient to revert food insecurity back to pre-pandemic levels. The paper concludes that the proposed model provides a robust and low-cost approach to maintain reliable long-term projections and produce scenario analyses that can be revised systematically and interpreted within the context of available economic outlooks
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10202
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Rural Employment in Africa : Trends and Challenges (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    Series Statement: Other papers
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Employment and Unemployment ; Food Security ; Labor Markets ; Rural Development ; Rural Labor Markets ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: Africa's rural population continues to expand rapidly and labor productivity in agriculture and many rural off farm activities remains low. This paper uses the lens of a dual economy and the associated patterns of agricultural, rural, and structural transformation to review the evolution of Africa's rural employment and its inclusiveness. Many African countries still find themselves in an early stage of the agricultural and rural transformation. Given smaller sectoral productivity gaps than commonly assumed, greater size effects and larger spillovers, investment in agriculture and the rural off-farm economy remains warranted to broker the transition to more and more productive rural employment. The key policy questions thus become how best to invest in the agri-food system (on and increasingly also off the farm) and how best to generate demand for nonagricultural goods and services which rural households can competitively produce. Informing these choices continues to present a major research agenda, with digitization, the imperative of greening and intra-African liberalization raising many unarticulated and undocumented opportunities and challenges
    DOI: 10.1596/37023
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (42 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Financial Stability ; Food Prices ; Food Security ; Inflation ; Machine Learning ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
    Abstract: The traditional consumer price index is often produced at an aggregate level, using data from few, highly urbanized, areas. As such, it poorly describes price trends in rural or poverty-stricken areas, where large populations may reside in fragile situations. Traditional price data collection also follows a deliberate sampling and measurement process that is not well suited for monitoring during crisis situations, when price stability may deteriorate rapidly. To gain real-time insights beyond what can be formally measured by traditional methods, this paper develops a machine-learning approach for imputation of ongoing subnational price surveys. The aim is to monitor inflation at the market level, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. The capabilities are highlighted using World Food Programme surveys in 25 fragile and conflict-affected countries where real-time monthly food price data are not publicly available from official sources. The results are made available as a data set that covers more than 1200 markets and 43 food types. The local statistics provide a new granular view on important inflation events, including the World Food Price Crisis of 2007-08 and the surge in global inflation following the 2020 pandemic. The paper finds that imputations often achieve accuracy similar to direct measurement of prices. The estimates may provide new opportunities to investigate local price dynamics in markets where prices are sensitive to localized shocks and traditional data are not available
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9886
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 6
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    Online Resource
    Assessing the Affordability of Nutrient-Adequate Diets (2021)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Schneider, Kate Assessing the Affordability of Nutrient-Adequate Diets
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Diet Cost ; Food Affordability ; Food and Nutrition Policy ; Food Price ; Food Security ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Meal Sharing ; Nutrient Adequacy ; Nutrition ; Poverty and Health ; Poverty Reduction
    Abstract: The affordability of nutritious diets is increasingly used as a metric of how well a food system provides access to nutritious diets for all. Recent work on least-cost diets has focused on individuals, while most food and anti-poverty programs and policies target the household level. Members within households have differing nutritional needs, presenting the methodological question: how should the cost of nutritious diets be estimated at the household level This study develops bounds on the cost, affordability, and seasonal variation of least-cost diets for whole households, illustrated with the example of Malawi. When intrahousehold sharing is not possible to observe, the bounded approach provides insights into the range of the cost and affordability, and the extent to which the cost may vary seasonally. The results reveal that when meals are shared, ignoring demographic diversity within households greatly underestimates the affordability of adequate diets
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9834
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Consumption Risk, Technology Adoption, And Poverty Traps : Evidence From Ethiopia (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (41 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Consumption Risk, Technology Adoption, And Poverty Traps
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth ; Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth ; Agriculture ; Assets ; Consumption ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Decision making ; Economic Theory and Research ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Intermediation ; Income ; Inefficiency ; Labor Policies ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Product markets ; Profitability ; Social Protections and Labor ; Sunk costs ; Transactions costs ; Wealth
    Abstract: Much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented-the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data for Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex-ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Gauging The Welfare Effects of Shocks In Rural Tanzania (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (46 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Christiaensen, Luc Gauging The Welfare Effects of Shocks In Rural Tanzania
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Crime ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Families ; Health Care ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health Services ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Holistic Approach ; Hospitalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mortality ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality Of Life ; Risk Factors ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Unemployment ; Agriculture ; Crime ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Families ; Health Care ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health Services ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Holistic Approach ; Hospitalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mortality ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality Of Life ; Risk Factors ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Unemployment ; Agriculture ; Crime ; Crops and Crop Management Systems ; Economic Theory and Research ; Families ; Health Care ; Health Monitoring and Evaluation ; Health Services ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Holistic Approach ; Hospitalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Mortality ; Poverty Reduction ; Quality Of Life ; Risk Factors ; Rural Development ; Rural Poverty Reduction ; Unemployment
    Abstract: Studies of risk and its consequences tend to focus on one risk factor, such as a drought or an economic crisis. Yet 2003 household surveys in rural Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma, two cash-crop-growing regions in Tanzania that experienced a precipitous coffee price decline around the turn of the millennium, identified health and drought shocks as well as commodity price declines as major risk factors, suggesting the need for a comprehensive approach to analyzing household vulnerability. In fact, most coffee growers, except the smaller ones in Kilimanjaro, weathered the coffee price declines rather well, at least to the point of not being worse off than non-coffee growers. Conversely, improving health conditions and reducing the effect of droughts emerge as critical to reduce vulnerability. One-third of the rural households in Kilimanjaro experienced a drought or health shocks, resulting in an estimated 8 percent welfare loss on average, after using savings and aid. Rainfall is more reliable in Ruvuma, and drought there did not affect welfare. Surprisingly, neither did health shocks, plausibly because of lower medical expenditures given limited health care provisions
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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