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  • Online Resource  (9)
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  • Turner, David  (9)
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  • Paris, France : OECD  (9)
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  • Online Resource  (9)
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1633
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; lockdown ; non-pharmaceutical interventions ; mobility ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Empirical work described in this paper explains the daily evolution of the reproduction rate, R, and mobility for a large sample of countries, in terms of containment and public health policies. This is with a view to providing insight into the appropriate policy stance as countries prepare for a potentially protracted period characterised by new infection waves. While a comprehensive package of containment measures may be necessary when the virus is widespread and can have a large effect on reducing R, they also have effect on mobility and, by extension, economic activity. A wide-ranging package of public health policies – with an emphasis on comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation, but also including mask-wearing and policies directed at vulnerable groups, especially those in care homes – offer the best approach to avoiding a full lockdown while containing the spread of the virus. Such policies may, however, need to be complemented by selective containment measures (such as restricting large public events and international travel or localised lockdowns) both to contain local outbreaks and because implementing some of the recommended public health policies may be difficult to achieve or have unacceptable social costs.
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1616
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Many OECD governments have enacted, or are contemplating, future increases in statutory pension ages, sometimes provoking vociferous political opposition. Empirical cross-country estimation work consistently finds that coefficients on statutory pension ages are positive and highly statistically significant in explaining labour-force participation at older ages. There is also some consistency in the magnitude of the estimated effects across studies, although this magnitude seems surprisingly modest when translated into the implied effect on average retirement ages: an increase in statutory pension ages by one year is typically estimated to increase the average effective retirement age by only about two months.
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1554
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A decomposition of changes to participation rates of 55-to-74 year-olds between 2002 and 2017 based on an estimated equation attributes more than two thirds of the median increase (of 10.9 percentage points) to rising life expectancy and educational attainment. About 1 percentage point is attributable to changes in statutory retirement ages, although part of the reason these effects are not larger is that in most countries, statutory retirement ages have not kept pace with life expectancy. Although difficult to incorporate in the empirical framework, evidence of falling disability pension rolls and reduced sensitivity of old-age participation to the level of unemployment suggests that the tightening of alternative early retirement pathways through unemployment or disability schemes has been a major factor in the turnaround in the participation rate of older workers. Projections indicate that participation rates for 55-to-74 year-olds should keep rising through 2030, by 3.4 percentage points for the median country. Rising life expectancy and educational attainment are projected to make the largest contributions, more than compensating for the negative contribution of population ageing in most countries.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1576
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper uses a new measure of human capital that works much better in explaining productivity in OECD countries compared to earlier measures of human capital to investigate the educational policy drivers of human capital. A novel methodology is utilised by interacting educational policies, for which time series coverage is very poor, with time-varying core drivers of human capital such as public spending on education. In such a framework, policy effects can only be assessed indirectly as they amplify or attenuate the effect of education spending on human capital. The results suggest that higher attendance at pre-primary education, greater autonomy of schools and universities, a lower student-to-teacher ratio, higher age of first tracking in secondary education and lower barriers to funding to students in tertiary education all tend to boost human capital through amplifying the positive effects of greater public spending on education. Benefits from pre-primary education are particularly high for countries with an above-average share of disadvantaged students. School autonomy yields high benefits especially in countries where schools are subject to external accountability.
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1575
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper calculates new measures of human capital. Contrary to the existing literature, they are based on realistic rates of return to education, which are allowed to vary substantially across countries and to some extent over time. The new measures perform well in regression analysis explaining productivity across OECD countries and over time. In OECD samples, coefficient estimates are broadly consistent with the private returns underlying the construction of the new measures of human capital. In a wider sample of countries, most estimates imply additional positive social returns.
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1579
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority of OECD countries, but the magnitude of the effect is typically weak. A corollary is that the effect of labour market slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation suggests that alternative proxies for expectations sometimes work better and there is some evidence that persistent under-shooting of inflation has led to some de-anchoring of expectations from the target, especially in the euro area. For most OECD countries, a measure of the global output gap is both statistically significant and strongly preferred to a domestic gap measure in explaining the wedge between headline and core inflation, although domestic gaps are strongly preferred in explaining core inflation. Various forms of non-linearity in the Phillips curve provide possible explanations for recent weak inflation outcomes, but statistical testing provides only limited support for such explanations.
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1542
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; Konjunktur ; Zentralbank ; Probit-Modell ; Vergleich ; Schweden ; England ; Economics ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Fan charts were pioneered by the Bank of England and Riksbank and provide a visually appealing means to convey the uncertainty surrounding a forecast. This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts by which the degree of uncertainty is based on past forecast errors, but the skew is derived from a probit modelbased assessment of the probability of a future downturn. The probit-based fan charts clearly out-perform the Bank of England and Riksbank approaches when applied to forecasts made immediately preceding the Global Financial Crisis. These examples also highlight weaknesses with the Bank of England and Riksbank approaches. The Riksbank approach implicitly assumes that forecast errors are normally distributed, but over a long track record this is unlikely to be the case because forecasters are generally poor at predicting downturns, which leads to bias and skew in the pattern of forecast errors. Thus, the Riksbank fan chart is neither an accurate representation of past forecast errors, nor is it a reflection of the risk assessment underlying the forecast. The Bank of England approach relies heavily on the judgment of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee to assess risks. However, even when they have correctly foreseen the nature of future risks, the quantitative translation of these risks into the fan chart skew has been too timid. Perhaps one reason for this is that the fan chart prediction intervals based on historical forecast errors already appear quite wide so that inflating them by adding skew may appear embarrassing (at least ex ante). The approach advocated in this paper addresses these weaknesses by recognising that forecast errors are not symmetrical: firstly, this leads to more compressed prediction intervals in the upper part of the fan chart (representing the possibility of under-prediction); and secondly, using the large forecast errors from past downturns to calibrate downward skew clearly supports a more bold approach when there is a risk of a downturn. A weakness of the probit model-based approach is that it will not predict atypical downturns. For example, in the current conjuncture it would not pick up risks associated with a ‘no deal’ Brexit or a global trade war. However, a downturn triggered by atypical events may be more severe if risk factors describing a typical business-financial cycle are also high.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 8
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1543
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Probit-Modell ; Neuseeland ; Economics ; New Zealand ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Macroeconomic forecasters typically forecast fewer recessions than the number experienced, which means economic growth tends to be over-predicted on average. Consequently, forecast errors are not normally distributed, making it difficult to convey the uncertainty and risks based on the historical forecast track record. To characterise this risk, recent OECD work constructed fan charts parameterised on historical forecast errors and the probability of a future downturn estimated from a probit model comprising a range of potential macroeconomic and financial early warning indicators. As the probability of a downturn increases the associated fan chart is wider, reflecting increased uncertainty, and more skewed to the downside, reflecting greater downside risks. This paper applies this methodology to New Zealand; although one important difference compared to other OECD economies is that the time span of macroeconomic data without major structural change is significantly shorter. Forecast errors for GDP by the OECD, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and New Zealand Treasury all appear to be non-normally distributed. Fan charts for GDP forecasts from the mid-year 2018 OECD Economic Outlook are symmetric due to the low probability of a downturn. Fan charts estimated for the period preceding the global financial crisis using currently-available data have a downwards skew. However, those estimated using data only available in the lead up to the crisis have many insignificant coefficients, likely due to the structural changes that have occurred in the New Zealand economy since the 1980s.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 9
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1521
    Keywords: Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Konjunktur ; Probit-Modell ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD. The degree of uncertainty – reflecting the overall spread of the fan chart – is based on past forecast errors, but the skew – reflecting whether risks are tilted to the downside – is derived from a probit model-based assessment of the probability of a future downturn. This approach is applied to each of the G7 countries separately, with combinations of variables found to be useful in predicting future downturns at different horizons up to 8 quarters: at short horizons of 2-4 quarters, a flattening or inverted yield curve slope, recent sharp falls in house prices, share prices or credit; at longer horizons of 6-8 quarters, sustained strong growth in house prices, share prices and credit; and at all horizons, a tight labour market and rapid growth in OECD-wide (or in some cases euro-wide) house prices, share prices or credit. The in-sample fit of the probit models appears reasonably good for all G7 countries. The predicted probabilities from the probit models provide a graduated assessment of downturn risk, which is reflected in the degree of skew in the fan chart. Fan charts computed on an out-of-sample basis around pre-crisis OECD forecasts published in June 2008 encompass the extreme outturns associated with the Global Financial Crisis for five of the G7 countries. A weakness of the approach is that, although it predicts a clear majority of past downturns, it will not predict atypical downturns. For example, in the current conjuncture, it is unlikely that current concerns about risks associated with Brexit, an escalation of trade tensions or spillovers from emerging markets would be picked up by the models. At the same time, a severe downturn triggered by such atypical events might be more severe if more typical risk factors are also high.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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