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  • English  (8)
  • 2015-2019  (8)
  • Rand Corporation  (8)
  • Turner, Bryan S.
  • History  (8)
  • 1
    ISBN: 9780833092625 , 0833093835 , 0833092626 , 9780833093837
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xi, 38 pages)
    Series Statement: Research report RR-1273-OSD
    Keywords: Counterinsurgency ; Asymmetric warfare ; Low-intensity conflicts (Military science) ; Peacekeeping forces ; Insurgency History 21st century ; Counterinsurgency Case studies ; Counterinsurgency ; Asymmetric warfare ; Low-intensity conflicts (Military science) ; Peacekeeping forces ; Insurgency ; Counterinsurgency ; POLITICAL SCIENCE ; Security (National & International) ; Asymmetric warfare ; Counterinsurgency ; Insurgency ; Low-intensity conflicts (Military science) ; Peacekeeping forces ; Afghanistan ; Case studies ; History ; Electronic books
    Abstract: "Previous RAND research examined 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide between World War II and 2010 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A key finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 11 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices corresponded perfectly with the outcomes of the cases analyzed. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices was always positive when the outcome was a COIN win (insurgent loss) and always negative when the outcome was a COIN loss (insurgent win). Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND study sought to apply the findings to the case of Afghanistan in 2015. The effort involved an expert elicitation in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. It was the third Afghanistan-focused exercise conducted with the scorecard, allowing rough comparisons with scores assigned by expert panels in 2011 and 2013. The 2015 consensus results indicated that Afghanistan continues to have a positive score, though its score is tied with the lowest-scoring historical wins. Two factors remained absent in Afghanistan in 2015 but essential to success in historical COIN campaigns: disrupting flows of tangible support to the insurgents and a demonstration (and improvement) of commitment and motivation on the part of the Afghan National Security Forces, the primary COIN force since the coalition drawdown. Despite some potentially positive developments resulting from the 2014 election of a new government in Afghanistan, it appears that the most promising end to the conflict will be a negotiated settlement in which the Afghan government makes some concessions to the insurgents and in which external powers, including the United States and Pakistan, help broker a satisfactory power-sharing agreement that brings greater stability to the country"--Publisher's description
    Description / Table of Contents: Preface -- Figure and Tables -- Summary -- Counterinsurgency Scorecard Update: Afghanistan in Early 2015 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II -- Findings from Previous Research on Insurgency: Findings from Previous Research on Insurgency -- The Counterinsurgency Scorecard -- Endgames for Insurgencies: Getting to Negotiated Settlements -- Scoring the Ongoing Conflict in Afghanistan: Using the Delphi Method -- Building on Previous Scorecards -- 2015 Scorecard Results: Specific Factors in the Current Case -- Notes on Factors Present or Absent in 2015 but Tenuous in the Future -- 2015 Results Compared with Previous Results and Analyses: What Improved? -- What Declined? -- What Stayed the Same? -- Scorecard and Duration of Conflict -- Summary of Scorecard Analyses -- Prospects for a Negotiated Settlement -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- APPENDIX -- References.
    Note: Includes bibliographical references (pages 37-38)
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  • 2
    ISBN: 9780833093134 , 0833093134 , 0833093134 , 9780833093134
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xxii, 70 pages)
    Series Statement: Research report RR-1067-AF
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als McLeod, Gary, 1948- Enhancing space resilience through non-materiel means
    DDC: 358/.84
    Keywords: United States Operational readiness ; United States ; Astronautics, Military History 21st century ; Space security History 21st century ; Organizational resilience History 21st century ; Astronautics, Military ; Space security ; Organizational resilience ; Organizational resilience ; Air Forces ; Astronautics, Military ; Space security ; United States ; United States ; Military & Naval Science ; Law, Politics & Government ; History ; Armed Forces ; Operational readiness ; Electronic book
    Abstract: "Space is now a congested, contested, and competitive environment. Space systems must become more resilient to potential adversary actions and system failures, but changes to space systems are costly. To provide a complete look at resilience and possibly realize some benefit at lower cost, the Air Force asked RAND to identify non-materiel means--doctrine, organization, training, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy--to enhance space resilience over the near and far terms.The authors developed implementation options to improve resilience based on a notional space protection operational concept: enhancing the capability of space operators to respond, in a timely and effective manner, to adversary counterspace actions. Operators need actionable information, appropriate organization and tactics, and dynamic command and control, supported by appropriate tools and decision aids, relevant training and exercises, and qualified personnel brought into the career field. The authors also recommend that Air Force Space Command develop a formal, end-to-end, space protection concept of operations (CONOPS) that captures all elements needed to improve resilience. In addition, the CONOPS could potentially follow the tenet of centralized control and decentralized execution in certain situations, such as when responding to adversary counterspace actions. For the near-term options, the rough order of magnitude (ROM) nonrecurring engineering (NRE) cost of implementation is estimated to be between $2.5 million and $3.6 million. For the far-term options, the ROM NRE cost is estimated to be between $109 million and $166 million, with the ROM recurring cost between $4 million and $5.4 million per year"--Publisher's description
    Description / Table of Contents: Preface -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- 1. Introduction: Background -- Objectives -- Scope -- Space resilience -- Approach -- Report structure -- 2. Resilience and civil institutions: General approaches for building resilient operations: Impact avoidance -- Adaptation and flexibility -- Recovery and restoration -- Potential applications to the space operations community -- Summary -- 3. Resilience and U.S. government civil space agencies: Civil policy considerations: Full and open access -- Rapid delivery -- Continuity of operations -- Security classification -- Civil practices: Information -- Organization and tactics -- Command and control -- Training -- Personnel -- Summary -- 4. Resilience and Air Force space operations: Operational concept -- Findings: information: Space order of battle -- Limited intelligence at SOPS/SWS -- Space knowledge of intelligence personnel -- Space Weather effects -- Summary -- Findings: organization and tactics: Space protection lead -- Space protection tactics -- Tactics-sharing -- Summary -- Findings: command and control: Satellite C2 contacts -- Responsibilities and authorities -- Anomaly resolution -- Summary -- Findings: training: Space protection training -- Exercises -- Multiple satellite C2 systems -- Summary -- Findings: personnel: Initial qualifications -- Career progression -- Trained operators -- Summary -- Cost of implementation options -- Detailed recommendations -- 5. Resilience and a world with international and commercial partners: Information -- Organization and tactics -- Command and control -- 6. Recommendations: Overarching recommendations: Resilience as a priority -- Space protection CONOPS -- Detailed recommendations: Near-term recommendations -- Far-term recommendations -- ROM costs -- Appendix A: Space resilience cost analysis.
    Note: "RAND Project Air Force" --Title page , "RR-1067-AF"--Cover page 4 , Includes bibliographical references (pages 63-70)
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Santa Monica, Calif : RAND Corporation
    ISBN: 9780833091789 , 0833091816 , 0833091786 , 9780833091819
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xxx, 317 pages)
    Series Statement: Rand Corporation research report series RR-1192-DARPA
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Johnston, Patrick B Foundations of the Islamic State
    Keywords: IS (Organization) History ; IS (Organization) Management ; IS (Organization) Organization ; IS (Organization) Finance ; IS (Organization) ; IS (Organization) ; IS (Organization) ; IS (Organization) ; Armies ; Organization ; Finance ; Management ; IS (Organization) ; History ; BUSINESS & ECONOMICS ; Infrastructure ; SOCIAL SCIENCE ; General ; Electronic book
    Abstract: "Foundations of the Islamic State: Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, 2005-2010 draws from more than 140 recently declassified documents to present a comprehensive examination of the organization, territorial designs, management, personnel policies, and finances of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI), both predecessors of the Islamic State. These records paint a clear picture of ISI practices and standard operating procedures. Leadership consciously designed the organization not just to fight but also to build an Islamic state governed by the laws dictated by its strict Islamist ideology. ISI was a vertically integrated organization with a central management structure and functional bureaus. It sought to replicate these structures at multiple lower geographic levels across territory. Each geographic unit had substantial autonomy to pursue the group's strategic objectives but was required to send frequent reports to the group's leadership; the central organization used these reports to inform decisions and provide strategic guidance. ISI paid its personnel a wage that would draw true believers rather than opportunists; trained and allocated its membership with an eye toward group effectiveness; raised revenues locally through diversified sources; and was able to maintain itself, albeit at much reduced strength, in the face of a withering counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategy put in place by its opponents, starting in late 2006. An analysis of the Islamic State predecessor groups is more than a historical recounting. The lessons from examining the group's history are useful for setting expectations about the strengths and vulnerabilities of the Islamic State and its ability to combat its opponents, designing a coordinated and effective campaign against it, and understanding why it might be able to survive such an effort and sustain itself in the future, albeit perhaps at a lower level of threat. Defeating the Islamic State will require persistence. The record of counter-ISI operations from 2006 through 2010 shows that military action and political accommodation can work together to degrade the group substantially, if not defeat it"--Publisher's web site
    Abstract: "Foundations of the Islamic State: Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, 2005-2010 draws from more than 140 recently declassified documents to present a comprehensive examination of the organization, territorial designs, management, personnel policies, and finances of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI), both predecessors of the Islamic State. These records paint a clear picture of ISI practices and standard operating procedures. Leadership consciously designed the organization not just to fight but also to build an Islamic state governed by the laws dictated by its strict Islamist ideology. ISI was a vertically integrated organization with a central management structure and functional bureaus. It sought to replicate these structures at multiple lower geographic levels across territory. Each geographic unit had substantial autonomy to pursue the group's strategic objectives but was required to send frequent reports to the group's leadership; the central organization used these reports to inform decisions and provide strategic guidance. ISI paid its personnel a wage that would draw true believers rather than opportunists; trained and allocated its membership with an eye toward group effectiveness; raised revenues locally through diversified sources; and was able to maintain itself, albeit at much reduced strength, in the face of a withering counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategy put in place by its opponents, starting in late 2006. An analysis of the Islamic State predecessor groups is more than a historical recounting. The lessons from examining the group's history are useful for setting expectations about the strengths and vulnerabilities of the Islamic State and its ability to combat its opponents, designing a coordinated and effective campaign against it, and understanding why it might be able to survive such an effort and sustain itself in the future, albeit perhaps at a lower level of threat. Defeating the Islamic State will require persistence. The record of counter-ISI operations from 2006 through 2010 shows that military action and political accommodation can work together to degrade the group substantially, if not defeat it"--Publisher's web site
    Note: "May 18, 2016"--Table of contents page , "National Defense Research Institute , Includes bibliographical references (pages 297-317) , Series from web site
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  • 4
    ISBN: 9780833088437 , 0833088432 , 9780833088444 , 0833088440 , 9780833088451 , 0833088459
    Language: English
    Pages: Online Ressource
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Pézard, Stéphanie Achieving peace in northern Mali
    DDC: 303.69096623
    Keywords: Coup d'état (Mali : 2012) ; SOCIAL SCIENCE ; General ; History ; Politics and government ; Mali History ; Tuareg Rebellion, 2012- ; Mali History ; Coup d'état, 2012 ; Mali Politics and government ; 1991- ; Mali ; Mali Politics and government 1991- ; Mali History Tuareg Rebellion, 2012- ; Mali History Coup d'état, 2012 ; Mali ; Electronic books History
    Abstract: This report examines the prospects for stabilization in Mali following the political and military crisis that began in 2012. To this end, it examines Mali's peace settlements since the early 1990s to identify flaws and successes. The authors find that five recurrent issues have impeded the implementation of successive accords: the lack of representativeness of the peace-accord signatories; a flawed understanding of decentralization and democracy; the limited perceived legitimacy, in the north, of Bamako; persistent insecurity; and an absence of transitional justice and reconciliation. The report recommends building representativeness through a variety of measures to simultaneously address these issues and help craft a peaceful way forward for Mali. The report also explores whether Mali's neighbor Niger owes its current stability to a more favorable context, shrewd policies, or sheer luck and whether it might offer a model of resilience for Mali. The authors recommend emulating some of the policies that could account for Niger's sustained stability, such as better integration of Tuareg populations and a focus on development programs in addition to security, while recognizing that these do not make Niger impervious to a resurgence of the political turmoil it experienced in the past
    Note: Includes bibliographical references. - Print version record and CIP data provided by publisher; resource not viewed
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Santa Monica, CA : RAND
    ISBN: 9780833088079 , 0833088076 , 9780833088086 , 0833088092 , 0833088084 , 0833087932 , 9780833087935 , 9780833088093
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xviii, 447 pages)
    Series Statement: Research report RR-676-AF
    Parallel Title: Print version Mueller, Karl P Precision and purpose
    Keywords: Air power History 21st century ; Air power ; HISTORY ; Africa ; North ; Air power ; Military campaigns ; Military operations, Aerial ; Civil War (Libya : 2011- ) ; Libya ; HISTORY ; Military ; Aviation ; History ; Libya History Civil War, 2011- ; Aerial operations ; Libya History Civil War, 2011- ; Campaigns ; Libya ; Libya ; Electronic book
    Abstract: Preface -- Figures and Tables -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1: Examining the Air Campaign in Libya / Karl P. Mueller -- Chapter 2: Strategic and Political Overview of the Intervention Christopher / S. Chivvis -- Chapter 3: The Libyan Experience / Frederic Wehrey -- Chapter 4: The U.S. Experience: National Strategy and Campaign Support / Robert C. Owen -- Chapter 5: The U.S. Experience: Operational / Deborah C. Kidwell -- Chapter 6: The British Experience: Operation Ellamy / Christina Goulter -- Chapter 7: The French Experience: Sarkozy's War? / Camille Grand -- Chapter 8: The Italian Experience: Pivotal and Underestimated / Gregory Alegi -- Chapter 9: The Canadian Experience: Operation Mobile / Richard O. Mayne -- Chapter 10: The Belgian, Danish, Dutch, and Norwegian Experiences / Christian F. Anrig -- Chapter 11: The Swedish Experience: Overcoming the Non-NATO-Member Conundrum / Robert Egnell -- Chapter 12: The Arab States' Experiences / Bruce R. Nardulli -- Chapter 13: Victory Through (Not By) Airpower / Karl P. Mueller -- Appendixes -- About the Authors -- Bibliography
    Abstract: Preface -- Figures and Tables -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1: Examining the Air Campaign in Libya / Karl P. Mueller -- Chapter 2: Strategic and Political Overview of the Intervention Christopher / S. Chivvis -- Chapter 3: The Libyan Experience / Frederic Wehrey -- Chapter 4: The U.S. Experience: National Strategy and Campaign Support / Robert C. Owen -- Chapter 5: The U.S. Experience: Operational / Deborah C. Kidwell -- Chapter 6: The British Experience: Operation Ellamy / Christina Goulter -- Chapter 7: The French Experience: Sarkozy's War? / Camille Grand -- Chapter 8: The Italian Experience: Pivotal and Underestimated / Gregory Alegi -- Chapter 9: The Canadian Experience: Operation Mobile / Richard O. Mayne -- Chapter 10: The Belgian, Danish, Dutch, and Norwegian Experiences / Christian F. Anrig -- Chapter 11: The Swedish Experience: Overcoming the Non-NATO-Member Conundrum / Robert Egnell -- Chapter 12: The Arab States' Experiences / Bruce R. Nardulli -- Chapter 13: Victory Through (Not By) Airpower / Karl P. Mueller -- Appendixes -- About the Authors -- Bibliography
    Note: "July 8, 2015"--Table of contents page , Includes bibliographical references (pages 411-447)
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  • 6
    ISBN: 9780833090874 , 0833093479 , 0833090879 , 9780833093479
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xi, 60 pages)
    Series Statement: Research Report RR-1069-MCIA
    Parallel Title: Print version Connable, Ben From negative to positive stability
    Keywords: Forced migration ; Humanitarian assistance ; National security 21st century ; International relief ; Emigration and immigration law ; Refugees ; Forced migration ; Humanitarian assistance ; National security ; International relief ; Emigration and immigration law ; Refugees ; Economic history ; Emigration and immigration law ; Forced migration ; Humanitarian assistance ; International relief ; National security ; Refugees ; Social conditions ; Civil War (Syria : 2011- ) ; Jordan ; Syria ; POLITICAL SCIENCE ; Human Rights ; History ; Jordan Economic conditions 21st century ; Jordan Social conditions 21st century ; Syria History Civil War, 2011- ; Jordan ; Jordan ; Syria ; Electronic book
    Abstract: "As of late 2014, many American and Jordanian experts believe Jordan to be stable. Yet while Jordan is stable, it faces a range of existing and emerging challenges. These include chronic unemployment, sporadic political unrest, budget deficits, a water shortage, and geographically isolated yet troubling internal security concerns. The Syrian refugee crisis both exacerbates these challenges and offers opportunities to the government of Jordan. If the Syrian refugees remain relatively content and continue to assimilate into northern and central Jordan, they might directly benefit the Jordanian economy by stimulating growth. Donors and lenders have increased their support to Jordan, in turn offering the government an opportunity to improve the lives of both Syrian refugees and Jordanian citizens. Most important, Jordan benefits from what one expert terms negative stability: Jordanian citizens might be dissatisfied with many aspects of their government, but the chaos in neighboring states has thus far dissuaded Jordanians from pursuing civil or violent actions that might destabilize Jordan. Jordanians do not want their country to look like Syria, Iraq, or Egypt. Jordan is likely to undergo further and perhaps unforeseen challenges in 2015 and 2016, but it has the opportunity to alleviate many of its enduring challenges. If Jordan wisely invests forthcoming international refugee support, it has the opportunity to shift popular outlook from negative to positive--and more optimistic--stability. This report's analytic forecasts should help the United States determine how to support Jordan as it faces the Syrian refugee crisis"--Publisher's description
    Description / Table of Contents: Preface -- Figures and Table -- Summary -- Chapter One: Introduction to the Status of Syrian Refugees as of Late 2014: Geographic Orientation and Syrian Refugees as of Late 2014 -- Syrian Refugees in Jordan: Late 2014 -- Methodology -- Organization of This Report -- Chapter Two: Assessment of Stability and Strategic Challenges: Late 2014: Jordan's Stability as of Late 2014 -- Security from External and Internal Threats -- Political Turmoil and the Impact of the Arab Spring -- Water Shortages Contribute to Economic and Social Unease -- Economic and Financial Dependencies -- Existing Refugee and Nonnational Worker Populations -- Summary of Stability Issues as of Late 2014 -- Chapter Three: Economic Factors and Forecasted Impact: Current Economic Status and Economic Integration of Syrian Refugees -- Forecast: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Economic Stability -- Chapter Four: Social Factors and Forecasted Impact: Assessing Late-2014 Social Integration and Social Impacts of Syrian Refugees -- Forecast: Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Social Stability -- Chapter Five: Security Assessment and Forecasted Impact: Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordanian Security as of Late 2014 -- Forecast: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Security -- Chapter Six: Conclusion, Summary Forecast, and Black Swan Warnings: Black Swans -- Abbreviations -- Bibliography.
    Note: "November 30, 2015"--Table of contents page , Includes bibliographical references (pages 39-60)
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Santa Monica, Calif : RAND Corporation
    ISBN: 9780833091635 , 0833093592 , 0833091638 , 9780833093592
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (viii, 39 pages)
    Series Statement: Rand Corporation research report series RR-1141-AF
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Cohen, Raphael S Demystifying the citizen soldier
    Keywords: Civil-military relations ; Civil-military relations ; Military & Naval Science ; Law, Politics & Government ; United States ; TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING ; Military Science ; Armed Forces ; Armed Forces ; Reserves ; Civil-military relations ; History ; Armies ; United States National Guard ; United States National Guard ; History ; United States Armed Forces ; Reserves ; United States ; United States ; United States ; Electronic book
    Abstract: "The National Guard is often portrayed as the modern heir to the colonial militia and retaining at least three of the latter's defining attributes -- a key instrument of American national security, a check on federal power, and home of today's 'citizen soldiers.' This report explores how the term citizen soldier has been defined in academic literature -- as compulsory, universal, legitimate service by civilians -- and then looks at how the National Guard has evinced these attributes at various periods in its history. Since the United States' founding, the militia -- and later, the National Guard -- slowly evolved into an increasingly formidable warfighting force and increasingly important tool for national security. This evolution, however, has come at the expense of two other attributes of the colonial militia -- serving as a check on federal power and filling its ranks with citizen soldiers. The report concludes that there are inherent and increasing tensions among being a warfighting force, serving as a check on federal power, and embodying the ideals of a citizen soldier, and it is not clear that the Guard -- or any other force for that matter -- can fully reconcile them. Ultimately, the Guard's transformation from citizen soldiers to a professional force may very well be inevitable and is likely a positive development for American national security. It is, however, important to realize that this trend is occurring, to demystify the citizen soldier, and to see the force for what it is"--Publisher's web site
    Abstract: "The National Guard is often portrayed as the modern heir to the colonial militia and retaining at least three of the latter's defining attributes -- a key instrument of American national security, a check on federal power, and home of today's 'citizen soldiers.' This report explores how the term citizen soldier has been defined in academic literature -- as compulsory, universal, legitimate service by civilians -- and then looks at how the National Guard has evinced these attributes at various periods in its history. Since the United States' founding, the militia -- and later, the National Guard -- slowly evolved into an increasingly formidable warfighting force and increasingly important tool for national security. This evolution, however, has come at the expense of two other attributes of the colonial militia -- serving as a check on federal power and filling its ranks with citizen soldiers. The report concludes that there are inherent and increasing tensions among being a warfighting force, serving as a check on federal power, and embodying the ideals of a citizen soldier, and it is not clear that the Guard -- or any other force for that matter -- can fully reconcile them. Ultimately, the Guard's transformation from citizen soldiers to a professional force may very well be inevitable and is likely a positive development for American national security. It is, however, important to realize that this trend is occurring, to demystify the citizen soldier, and to see the force for what it is"--Publisher's web site
    Note: "Project Air Force , Includes bibliographical references (pages 32-39) , Series from web site
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  • 8
    ISBN: 9780833088444 , 0833088440 , 9780833088451 , 0833088459 , 9780833088239 , 0833088432
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource
    DDC: 303.6/9096623
    Keywords: Mali ; Mali ; Mali ; History ; Electronic book
    Abstract: Introduction -- A brief history of Mali's rebellions and the implementation of peace accords -- Explaining the failure of past peace accords -- Moving forward -- Is there a Nigerien model of resilience? -- Conclusion
    Abstract: This report examines the prospects for stabilization in Mali following the political and military crisis that began in 2012. To this end, it examines Mali's peace settlements since the early 1990s to identify flaws and successes. The authors find that five recurrent issues have impeded the implementation of successive accords: the lack of representativeness of the peace-accord signatories; a flawed understanding of decentralization and democracy; the limited perceived legitimacy, in the north, of Bamako; persistent insecurity; and an absence of transitional justice and reconciliation. The report recommends building representativeness through a variety of measures to simultaneously address these issues and help craft a peaceful way forward for Mali. The report also explores whether Mali's neighbor Niger owes its current stability to a more favorable context, shrewd policies, or sheer luck and whether it might offer a model of resilience for Mali. The authors recommend emulating some of the policies that could account for Niger's sustained stability, such as better integration of Tuareg populations and a focus on development programs in addition to security, while recognizing that these do not make Niger impervious to a resurgence of the political turmoil it experienced in the past
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