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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Urban house price gradients in the post-COVID-19 era (2023)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (32 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1756
    Keywords: Urban, Rural and Regional Development ; Economics
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant shift in the way people work, with an increasing number of individuals opting to work from home. Fewer commutes allow people to live further away from the city centre, where jobs typically concentrate. Against this background, this paper tests the hypothesis of a shift in housing demand away from the city centre towards the suburbs using a novel granular house price data set covering 16 OECD countries. The results indicate a flattening of the house price gradients in most large urban areas with profound consequences for housing policies and the city of the future.
    DOI: 10.1787/3c94ca85-en
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  • 2
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    Home, green home: Policies to decarbonise housing (2023)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (46 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1751
    Keywords: Environment ; Economics
    Abstract: The housing sector is one of the main sources of CO2 emissions in OECD countries, accounting for over a quarter of the total. Robust and rapid action is required to reach the net zero emission target by 2050. Decarbonising housing involves halting the use of fossil fuels in homes, ensuring that electricity is generated from carbon-free sources, using high-energy-efficiency appliances and heating systems, ensuring effective insulation and encouraging behavioural changes. This paper discusses which policy instruments can prompt this transformation of the housing sector, ranging from carbon pricing through energy labelling requirements to green housing finance.
    DOI: 10.1787/cbda8bad-en
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  • 3
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    Do governments re-prioritise spending? : First insights from COFOG data on public spending reallocation in OECD countries (2023)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (40 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1785
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This study investigates the capacity of governments to reallocate spending across different functions of the government. It mobilises the COFOG dataset for the period 1996 - 2017, which allows comparing public spending mixes at detailed levels in ways that are consistent across countries and over time. Three main empirical findings are established. Firstly, countries differ in their propensity to reallocate public spending across functions and countries that reallocate more are also countries with sounder governance and tighter fiscal rules in place. Secondly, obstacles to reallocation are identified, with governments avoiding nominal cuts, especially in health and social expenditures. Thirdly, while the analysis underlines some degree of convergence among OECD countries in terms of public spending allocation, this convergence is not universal. A cluster of Nordic countries persists, and Greece is identified as diverging from the rest of countries included in the sample.
    DOI: 10.1787/56dda017-en
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  • 4
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    Changes in the geography housing demand after the onset of COVID-19: First results from large metropolitan areas in 13 OECD countries (2022)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (45 Seiten) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1713
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The paper introduces a novel, granular house-price dataset sourced from a network of public and private data providers. It offers the first results of investigations into changes in the urban geography of housing markets following the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid rise of working from home practices is likely to incentivise many people to seek more space and accept living further away from city centres as commuting requirements are reduced. The paper's results indicate that housing demand might have indeed shifted away from the centres to the peripheries of many large urban areas. These early results also show that such a shift has been neither universal nor uniform. It is typically stronger in cities where pre-COVID-19 house price disparities were larger and where moving to the periphery provides significantly better access to green space while still allowing easy access to high-speed internet and/or where COVID-19 restrictions were more stringent. The paper concludes by discussing implications for policy, including the benefits of flexible settings that allow supply to adjust smoothly to new demand patterns and outlining avenues for future work planned to improve and capitalise on the new dataset.
    DOI: 10.1787/9a99131f-en
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  • 5
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    Mortgage finance across OECD countries (2021)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (36 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1693
    Keywords: Hypothek ; Immobilienfinanzierung ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics
    Abstract: The landscapes of housing loan markets vary considerably across OECD countries, reflecting differences in preferences and policy settings. This paper first draws a topography of disparities in mortgage structure, documenting considerable variation across OECD countries in key features such as in use of fixed vs variable interest rates and typical maturities. The paper then discusses policies that can influence these outcomes. It highlights the scope for encouraging inclusive access to housing through tax-and-spending programmes that are neutral between renting and owning rather than through often very costly tax advantages for mortgage borrowing. The paper finally proposes a novel indicator to measure the balance between the rights of borrowers and lenders. Mortgage markets are deepest in countries where the index shows that creditor and borrower rights are balanced rather than severely tilted to one side.
    DOI: 10.1787/f97d7fe0-en
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  • 6
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    The future of housing : policy scenarios (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1624
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: By combining fresh estimates of housing supply and prices with recent long-term projections for their fundamental drivers such as population, income and interest rates, this paper produces scenarios for residential investment and real house prices up to 2050. For half of the covered countries, projected increases in house prices are large enough to outpace real incomes, thereby further eroding housing affordability. The paper illustrates and quantifies how housing policies can make a difference. Removing mortgage interest relief eases price pressures and can contribute to more affordable housing. Likewise, streamlining land-use governance and easing rental control can help unlock housing supply, make housing markets more efficient and, ultimately, housing more affordable.
    DOI: 10.1787/0adf02cb-en
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  • 7
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    Empirical links between housing markets and economic resilience (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1562
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Housing markets, which are large and subject to sharp swings, shape to a great extent countries’ exposure to economic crises and their capacity to recover from them. This paper analyses the transmission of housing-related shocks to the real economy: it investigates the role that policy plays in (a) mitigating or amplifying shocks and (b) facilitating or hampering a recovery. It considers macroprudential measures, rental regulation, taxation and land use restrictions. The aim is to investigate, which housing policy-related reforms can foster greater economic resilience. Among other results, it finds that a tighter macroprudential stance is generally linked to a lower likelihood of economic crisis and that higher effective rates of housing taxation are associated with smoother housing cycles.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/aa029083-en
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  • 8
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    Housing markets and macroeconomic risks (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1555
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Housing markets are large and highly volatile: they can thus create large macroeconomic risks. The current paper provides a bird’s eye view of where the housing markets of major OECD economies currently stand. It then uses the results of recently developed models to provide indications of where macroeconomic risks exist. Finally, the paper draws on recent empirical analyses to suggest how economic policies can enhance economic resilience by reducing housing-related risks through macroprudential measures and housing market reforms (such as changes in rent regulation, taxation and land use policies).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/737133d8-en
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  • 9
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    How responsive are housing markets in the OECD? : national level estimates (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1589
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The trend rise of house prices in many OECD countries suggests weakness in the adjustment of supply to demand. This paper estimates long-term elasticities of housing supply to prices in OECD countries before exploring their drivers with a focus on policies. It finds a significant association between weaker supply responsiveness and a proxy measure for more restrictive land-use regulation. Besides, tighter rent controls are linked with lower supply elasticities. In turn, weak supply responsiveness implies that house prices rise more following stronger demand. The sensitivity of house prices to household income is also higher in countries that provide larger amounts of tax relief for homeowners.
    DOI: 10.1787/4777e29a-en
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  • 10
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    Public finance structure and inclusive growth (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper no. 25 (December 2018)
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.25
    Keywords: Öffentliche Finanzen ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Soziale Integration ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Tax and spending reforms offer numerous opportunities to promote inclusive growth. There is potential for so-called win-win reforms that simultaneously boost economic output and enhance income equality. Other changes in the structure of public finances will produce benefits only along a single dimension, while some involve trade-offs between average income gains and adverse distributional effects. Empirical analyses of the experience of OECD countries provide evidence about which tax and spending reforms influence prosperity and income distribution -- and by how much.
    DOI: 10.1787/e99683b5-en
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  • 11
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    The capacity of governments to raise taxes (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1407
    Keywords: 1978 - 2014 ; Laffer-Kurve ; Einkommensteuer ; Sozialversicherungsbeitrag ; Umsatzsteuer ; Grenzsteuersatz ; Steuereinnahmen ; Vergleich ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper investigates the factors that shape governments’ capacity to collect revenue. To do so, it analyses how tax revenue responds to tax rates using evidence from a panel of 34 OECD countries over 1978-2014. The estimations show that the response of revenue to rates weakens as rates become higher, confirming the existence of a hump-shaped relationship between tax revenue and rates for corporate income taxation and providing a new contribution by analysing value-added taxation. Importantly, the estimated responses of revenue to tax rates vary, in some cases very strongly from an economic perspective, depending on country-specific policies and framework conditions. In particular, the corporate income tax revenue-generating potential of hiking the effective rate shrinks much more quickly in more open economies than in more closed ones. Tax revenue is found to be more responsive to tax increases in countries where the tax authorities have more resources. The investigations also cover personal income taxation. They point to diminishing revenue returns of increasing the effective marginal tax rates that apply at substantially above-average income levels.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/6bee2df9-en
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
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  • 12
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    The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1447
    Keywords: 1980 - 2014 ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Haushaltseinkommen ; Besteuerungsverfahren ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Can reforms that shift the balance among different taxes in the revenue mix lastingly influence the overall prosperity of an economy and the distribution of income across households? The present study takes this question to the data, using the experience of 34 OECD countries over 1980-2014 to assess the effects of changes in the tax structure on the long-term level of average output per capita and the distribution of disposable income across households. Changing the revenue mix while keeping government size constant typically lift long-term output per capita when they involve cuts in the labour tax wedge below or above average incomes, cuts in corporate income taxes or increases in property taxes. The relative-income effects of revenue-neutral reductions in labour tax wedges are broadly in line with intuition: the relative position of those benefitting from them typically improves. In absolute terms, however, nearly all the income distribution benefits from revenue-neutral reductions in labour tax wedges, be they focused on below or average income earners.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/c57eaa14-en
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  • 13
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    Effects of flexibility-enhancing reforms on employment transitions (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
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    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1348
    Keywords: Regulierung ; Arbeitsmarktflexibilität ; Beschäftigungseffekt ; Arbeitnehmerschutz ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Do flexibility-enhancing reforms imply more employment instability? Using individual-level data from harmonised household surveys for 26 advanced countries, this paper analyses the effects of product and labour market reforms on transitions in and out of employment. Results indicate that reforms making product markets more competitive increase transitions out of employment for less qualified and low-income workers. Less qualified and low-income workers have very high job exit rates to start with, and reforms raise these rates further. On the other hand, more pro-competitive product market regulation generally increases entry rates into employment. The concentration on less qualified and low-income workers of the increase in labour market turnover associated with product market reforms suggests a case for accompanying such reforms with labour market programmes that help the most vulnerable workers transition to new jobs. Easing employment protection for regular or temporary workers has no systematic long-term effect on workers’ probabilities to move in or out of employment. Such reforms can, however, affect employment transitions through their interaction with other policies and institutions. For example, easing employment protection for workers with regular contracts raises the job-finding chances of people out of work in countries that invest a lot in active labour market programmes. Furthermore, employment protection legislation and product market regulation are complementary in that, when either employment protection or product markets are lightly regulated, reforming the other is associated with fewer job exits.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/bd8e4c1f-en
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  • 14
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    Online Resource
    Enhancing economic flexibility : what is in it for workers? (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper no. 19 (November 2016)
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.19
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarktreform ; Mikrodaten ; Arbeitsrecht ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Reforms that boost growth by enhancing economic flexibility often meet strong opposition related to concerns that they may imply adverse consequences for categories of workers. This study investigates how making product or labour market regulation more flexible changes workers’ risks of moving out of employment and jobless people’s chances of becoming employed. To do so, it employs specially harmonised micro-level data covering individual workers in 26 OECD countries. The micro-econometric regressions reveal that labour market reforms do not uniformly influence transitions in and out of employment but that their effects vary depending on institutions and other policy settings. For instance, making employment protection of regular contracts more flexible is associated with more transitions into employment in countries that have above-average activation programmes. As for product market reforms, they are found to boost transitions into employment, especially for women, and to have no systematic effect on exits, so that overall they tend to boost aggregate employment, in line with earlier evidence. The micro-data show that workers with low earnings potential, who, already before reforms, experience much higher transition rates in and out of employment than other groups, face particularly strong increases in employment churn when product market regulations become more flexible. Additional micro-econometric analysis focusing on sectors subject to specific product market regulation (energy, transport, communication) reveals that workers employed in tightly regulated sectors typically earn more than their peers with similar characteristics working elsewhere. Taken together, the findings can help enhance reform design, in particular by highlighting the benefits of (a) policy packages drawing on complementarities between product and labour market reforms, (b) active labour market programmes that effectively support more vulnerable workers and (c) broad reforms over narrow compensation schemes.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/b8558a5b-en
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  • 15
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    Online Resource
    Effects of economic policies on microeconomic stability (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (61 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1201
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Wirtschaftsreform ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Stabilisierungspolitik ; Haushaltsökonomik ; Mikrodaten ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Economic policies shape how much people earn as well as how stable their income and jobs are. The level and stability of earnings both matter for well-being. Standard economic aggregates do not measure accurately the economic uncertainty which households are facing. This paper shows that household-level economic instability is only very loosely related to macroeconomic volatility. It uses several household-level databases to document how pro-growth reforms influence household-level economic stability. Movement from less to more productive processes and firms is at the heart of economic growth, which suggests a trade-off between growth and micro-level stability. Certain policy changes boost growth but increase micro-level instability: they include reductions in tax progressivity or social transfers (including unemployment benefits) as well as moves from very to moderately tight restrictions on the flow of goods and services and on the dismissal of regular workers. However, the analysis also uncovers that moving to highly competitive policies generally reduces micro-level instability.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js3f5cwj3jb-en
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  • 16
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    Finance and inclusive growth (2015)
    Paris : OECD
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    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (47 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper 14
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.14
    Keywords: Lohnstruktur ; Einkommensverteilung ; Kapitalbeteiligung ; Gini-Koeffizient ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Bankinsolvenz ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Aktienmarkt ; G20-Staaten ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Finance is a vital ingredient for economic growth, but there can also be too much of it. This study investigates what fifty years of data for OECD countries have to say about the role of the financial sector for economic growth and income inequality and draws policy implications. Over the past fifty years, credit by banks and other intermediaries to households and businesses has grown three times as fast as economic activity. In most OECD countries, further expansion is likely to slow rather than boost growth. The composition of finance matters for growth. More credit to the private sector slows growth in most OECD countries, but more stock market financing boosts growth. Credit is a stronger drag on growth when it goes to households rather than businesses. Financial expansion fuels greater income inequality because higher income people can benefit more from the greater availability of credit and because the sector pays high wages. Higher income people can and do borrow more, so that they can gain more than others from the investment opportunities that they identify. The financial sector pays wages which are above what employees with similar profiles earn in the rest of the economy. This premium is particularly large for top income earners. There is no trade-off between financial reform, growth and income equality in the long term. In the short term, measures to avoid accumulating too much credit can, however, restrain growth temporarily. A healthy contribution of the financial sector to inclusive growth requires strong capital buffers, measures to reduce explicit and implicit subsidies to toobig- to-fail financial institutions and tax reforms to promote neutrality between debt and equity financing
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js06pbhf28s-en
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  • 17
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    Finance and income inequality in OECD countries (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (41 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1224
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Einkommensverteilung ; Aktienmarkt ; Gini-Koeffizient ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Using data from OECD countries over the past three decades, this paper shows that financial expansion has fuelled greater income inequality. Higher levels of credit intermediation and stock markets are both related with a more unequal distribution of income. Greater income inequality may not reduce the welfare of even the lowest earners so long as their income growth is not negatively affected. Numerical simulations based on a novel empirical methodology indicate, however, that the financial expansion has put a brake on the income growth of many low- and middle-income households. No evidence is found that financial crises explain the observed relationships. While causality is difficult to establish beyond doubt, the paper finds credit patterns which are inconsistent with reverse causality running from greater income inequality to more household borrowing.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js04v5jm2hl-en
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  • 18
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    Finance and economic growth in OECD and G20 countries (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (60 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1223
    Keywords: Unternehmensfinanzierung ; Immobilienfinanzierung ; Kredit ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Bank ; Kreditgeschäft ; Systemrisiko ; Aktienmarkt ; G20-Staaten ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper shows that finance has been a key ingredient of long-term economic growth in OECD and G20 countries over the past half-century, but that there can be too much finance. The evidence indicates that at current levels of household and business credit further expansion slows rather than boosts growth. Causality from more credit to slower growth is supported by a novel empirical methodology which exploits changes in financial regulation across countries and time as a source of exogenous variation in financial size. The empirical analyses point to five factors that link more credit to slower growth: i) excessive financial deregulation, ii) a more pronounced increase in credit issuance by banks than other intermediaries, iii) too-big-to-fail guarantees by the public authorities for large financial institutions, iv) a lower quality of credit and v) a disproportionate rise of household compared with business credit. By contrast, expansions in stock market funding in general boost growth.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js04v8z0m38-en
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  • 19
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    Online Resource
    Effects of pro-growth policies on the economic stability of firms, workers and households (2015)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (32 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy paper 12
    Series Statement: OECD Economic Policy Papers no.12
    Keywords: Stabilisierungspolitik ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Mikrodaten ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Economic policies shape how much people earn but also how stable their income and jobs are. The level of earnings and the degree of economic stability both matter for well-being. Micro-level data indicate that, across OECD countries, economic instability is much greater at the level of individuals than at the aggregate level. The present study investigates the effects on micro-level stability of policies that boost growth. Movement from less to more productive processes and firms is at the heart of economic growth, which suggests possible trade-offs between growth and micro-level stability. The analysis indeed finds policy changes that boost growth but increase micro-level instability: reducing the progressivity or size of social transfers (including unemployment benefits) as well as moving from very to moderately tight restrictions on the competition for goods and services and on the dismissal of regular workers. However, the analysis also uncovers that moving to highly competitive policies generally reduces micro-level instability.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js3777tdqjf-en
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  • 20
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    Why implicit bank debt guarantees matter : Some empirical evidence (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 63-88 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:2 | pages:63-88
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (26 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 2, p. 63-88
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:2
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:63-88
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Economics
    Abstract: What are the economic effects of implicit bank debt guarantees and who ultimately benefits from them? This paper finds that “financial excesses” – situations where bank credit reaches levels that reduce economic growth – have been stronger in OECD countries characterised by larger values of implicit guarantees and where bank creditors have not incurred losses in bank failure resolution cases. Also, implicit bank debt guarantees benefit financial sector employees and other high-income earners in two ways, increasing income inequality. First, implicit guarantees are likely to raise financial sector pay. This is consistent with the observation of “financial sector wage premia”, or financial sector employees earning in excess of their profile in terms of age, education and other characteristics. Second, implicit guarantees are likely to result in more and cheaper bank lending. If so, well-off people tend to benefit relatively more since household credit is more unequally distributed than income. JEL classification: D63, E43, G21, G28, O47 Keywords: Bank funding costs, implicit guarantees for bank debt, bank failure resolution, finance and growth, finance and income inequality
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2014-5js3bfznx6vj
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    Effects of economic policies on microeconomic volatility (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Economic Studies Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 179-225 | volume:2015 | year:2015 | number:1 | pages:179-225
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (47 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Economic Studies
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 179-225
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:179-225
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Economic policies shape how much people earn, as well as how stable their income and jobs are. The level and stability of earnings both matter for well-being. Standard economic aggregates do not measure accurately the economic uncertainty which households are facing. This paper shows that household-level economic instability is only very loosely related to macroeconomic volatility. It uses several household-level databases to document how structural reforms aimed at boosting growth influence household-level economic stability. Movement from less to more productive processes and firms is at the heart of economic growth, which suggests a trade-off between growth and micro-level stability. Certain policy changes boost growth but increase micro-level instability: they include reductions in tax progressivity or social transfers (including unemployment benefits), as well as moves from very to moderately tight restrictions on the flow of goods and services and on the firing of regular workers. However, the analysis also uncovers that moving to highly competitive policies in general reduces micro-level instability. This finding points to a case for comprehensive rather than marginal reform in tightly regulated countries, since a comprehensive agenda can deliver higher growth without the instability costs that a more marginal reform can entail. JEL classification: D12, D22, J08, O40 Keywords: Stability, households, economic growth, reforms, microdata
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2015-5jrp38st90nv
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    Reconciling fiscal consolidation with growth and equity (2014)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Economic Studies Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-89 | volume:2013 | year:2013 | number:1 | pages:7-89
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (83 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Economic Studies
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2013, no. 1, p. 7-89
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2013
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:7-89
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Despite sustained efforts made in recent years to rein in budget deficits, a majority of OECD countries still face substantial public finance consolidation needs. While essential to avoid the disruption and large costs ultimately associated with unsustainable public finances, fiscal consolidation complicates the task of achieving other policy goals. In most cases, it weighs on demand in the short term. And, if too little attention is paid to the mix of instruments used to achieve consolidation, it can undermine long-term growth, exacerbate income inequality and slow the process of global rebalancing. It is therefore important for governments to adopt consolidation strategies that minimise these adverse side-effects. The analysis proposes consolidation strategies that take into account other policy goals as well as country-specific circumstances and preferences. To do so, increases in particular taxes and cuts in specific spending areas are assessed for their effects on short- and long-term growth, income distribution and external accounts. The results of detailed illustrative simulations indicate that a significant number of OECD countries may have to raise harmful taxes or cut valuable spending areas to deliver sufficient consolidation, underscoring the need for structural reforms to counteract these side-effects. The results are robust to an extensive range of sensitivity checks.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2013-5jzb44vzbkhd
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    Choosing fiscal consolidation instruments compatible with growth and equity : a going for growth report (2013)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD economic policy papers 7
    Keywords: Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Einkommensverteilung ; Strukturpolitik ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; OECD-Staaten ; Taxation ; Economics ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Despite sustained efforts made in recent years to rein in budget deficits, a majority of OECD countries still face substantial public finance consolidation needs moving forward, owing to the legacy of debt accumulation before the crisis, and to the role played by fiscal policy in rescuing the banking system and supporting aggregate demand in the aftermath of the recession. Further budget consolidation is also needed over a much longer horizon to face long-term public spending pressures, in particular from pensions and health care. Fiscal consolidation complicates the task of achieving other policy goals. In most cases, it weighs on demand in the short term. And, if too little attention is paid to the mix of instruments used to achieve consolidation, it can slow the process of global rebalancing, undermine long-term growth and exacerbate income inequality. It is therefore important for governments to adopt consolidation strategies that minimise these adverse side-effects. The analysis assesses the near and long-term consolidation needs for OECD countries and proposes consolidation strategies that take into account other policy goals as well as country-specific circumstances and preferences. To do so, increases in particular taxes and cuts in specific spending areas are assessed for their effects on short- and longterm growth, income distribution and external accounts. The results of detailed simulations indicate that a significant number of OECD countries may have to raise harmful taxes or cut valuable spending areas to deliver sufficient consolidation, underscoring the need for structural reforms to counteract these side-effects.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k43nxq6dzd4-en
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    Deleveraging : challenges, progress and policies (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (65 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1077
    Keywords: Haushaltsökonomik ; Sparen ; Immobilienpreis ; Bauinvestition ; Notleidender Kredit ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; OECD-Staaten ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: In the run-up to the financial crisis, indebtedness of households and non-financial businesses rose to historically high levels in many OECD countries; gross debt of financial companies rose dramatically relative to GDP. Much of the debt accumulation appears to have been based on excessive risk-taking and exceptional macro-economic conditions and therefore not sustainable. Since the start of the crisis, non-financial private sector debt has receded substantially in the United States and the United Kingdom. Other OECD countries have not experienced significant debt reduction but already achieved some adjustment in terms of private saving and investment (with the seeming contradiction between these two observations explained by the private sector accumulating gross financial assets at a faster pace). Some macro-economic risks related to future household deleveraging nevertheless remain in a few OECD countries where indebtedness has risen in recent years. In the financial sector, possible future deleveraging will be more damaging to growth if it involves reducing assets rather than retaining (or raising) equity. To speed up the deleveraging process and minimising its impact on prosperity, bad loans should be recognised swiftly, losses taken, insolvent banks wound down orderly and capital shortfalls plugged at still solvent banks.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k4221459fjc-en
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  • 25
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    How to achieve growth- and equity-friendly fiscal consolidation? : a proposed methodology for instrument choice with an illustrative application to OECD countries (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (110 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1088
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Despite sustained efforts made in recent years to rein in budget deficits, a majority of OECD countries still face substantial fiscal consolidation needs. The choices made about which spending areas to curtail and which taxes to hike will have implications for near-term activity and long-term growth as well as for equity and the current account. This paper proposes a method for choosing the instruments of consolidation so that they contribute to -- or minimise trade-offs with -- the goals of promoting near-term activity, longterm growth, equity, and global rebalancing. The proposed method is illustrated with detailed simulations for 31 OECD countries which are accompanied by an extensive range of alternative scenarios to confirm the robustness of the findings. The simulations highlight that half of OECD countries can reduce excess debt mainly through moderate adjustments to instruments (such as subsidies, pensions or property taxes) that have at most limited side-effects on other policy objectives. They also show that a smaller number of countries face more difficult choices, having to either make bigger adjustments in areas where spending cuts or tax hikes are least harmful or to rely significantly on consolidation instruments with substantial adverse side-effects. These trade-offs can to a large extent be alleviated through structural reforms in the delivery of public services and in taxation.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k407lwvzkkh-en
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    Implications of output gap uncertainty in times of crisis (2012)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 977
    Keywords: Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it essentially resulted from a large increase in the unemployment gap. As indicated by “positive” Taylor rules, output gaps influence policy-controlled interest rates and are in principle important indicators to guide monetary policy decisions. However, these gaps are estimated with a large margin of uncertainty, especially when composed mainly of TFP gaps. Given the high uncertainty of output gap estimates at present, monetary policy should put more weight on alternative indicators of inflation pressure such as wage settlements, trends in unit labour costs and a wide range of indicators of inflation expectations. The recent fall in margins observed in some countries may, for instance, translate into a combination of wage moderation and upward price pressure as firms try to rebuild their margins. In the United States, the large unemployment gap could also keep wage inflation under pressure despite a flattening Phillips curve. These downward pressures should not, however, trigger a deflationary spiral as long as inflation expectations stay anchored. As regards fiscal policy, output gaps remain necessary inputs to assess the fiscal stance adjusted for the cycle, such measures of underlying fiscal balances being reasonably robust to output gap uncertainty.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k95xd7m3szw-en
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  • 27
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    Gauging the Impact of Higher Capital and Oil Costs on Potential Output (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 15 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.789
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The 2007-2009 period has been characterised by an oil shock followed by a financial crisis. Higher oil prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs are likely to reduce the productive potential of OECD economies. The present study provides illustrative numerical estimates of the impact under different scenarios using a stylised model based on a production function. In a scenario where real borrowing costs for firms return to their 1991-2001 average as opposed to staying at the level at which the capital stock in place at the end of 2007 had been invested, the impact on equilibrium GDP could be in the order of 2%. If the real oil price stays at $80 per barrel, up from the $50 average at which the capital stock in place in 2007 had been invested, the impact on equilibrium GDP could be in the order of 1%.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmbm8030z6h-en
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  • 28
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    Monetary Policy Responses to the Crisis and Exit Strategies (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 50 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.753
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Central banks have responded with exceptional vigour to the crisis by using their traditional interest-rate tools to their limits and deploying a wide range of unconventional measures. This paper documents these responses in a systematic way, reviews the evidence about their impact, and discusses the need to exit from these measures. Unconventional monetary policy measures appear to have been broadly successful in terms of improving conditions in financial markets and stabilising the real economy. In line with the improvement in functioning of financial markets, however, these unconventional measures should be gradually removed. Given the considerable changes in the size and composition of central banks' balance sheets, the exit will likely involve the combination of various tools. More challenging questions surround the decisions of when and how fast the current exceptional amount of stimulus should be reduced and then eliminated. A particularly important goal will be to preserve the hard-won anchoring of inflation expectations and dissipate any hypothetical fears that central banks? greater risk exposure and purchases of bonds issued or backed by governments might have reduced their independence regarding monetary policy decisions.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kml6xm7qgs6-en
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  • 29
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    The Role of Transparency in the Conduct of Monetary Policy (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 61 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.724
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In contrast to the once prevailing norm of secrecy and opaqueness, transparency has now become one of the main features characterising the conduct of monetary policy. Detailed analysis of eleven OECD central banks shows that communication practices have converged markedly in the direction of ever greater transparency. Empirical evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that transparency contributes to the successful conduct of monetary policy: higher transparency is a typical element of monetary frameworks that are associated with better anchored inflation expectations and more stable inflation outcomes. Despite this general trend toward increased transparency, however, central banks differ in actual communication practices. There is a particular divergence with respect to transparency in the decision-making process and communication regarding future policy inclination. Although the appropriate degree of transparency in these areas is an unsettled issue, the fact that financial dislocation is impairing conventional monetary transmission makes these two areas critical for policy implementation.
    DOI: 10.1787/221128317344
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  • 30
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    Is there a Case for Price-level Targeting? (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.721
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: There is a case, but there are also counter-arguments. With sufficient forward-looking behaviour among firms and households, price-level targeting can act as a powerful built-in stabiliser through automatic shifts in inflation expectations. This stabilisation mechanism reduces the need for large shifts in policy rates, alleviating the risk of hitting the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates and falling into a liquidity trap. Furthermore, credible price-level targeting can support capital accumulation by protecting the long-run purchasing power of money and reducing the inflation risk premium embedded in actual long-term real interest rates. However, price-level targeting can imply welfare-reducing policy-induced output volatility in situations where the degree of forward-looking behaviour is very low. The self-regulating capacity of price-level targeting can be undermined if central banks are not fully credible. Besides, aggressive inflation targeting can replicate some of (but not all) the benefits of price-level targeting. On balance, the case for adopting price-level targeting is not clear-cut, all the more so since transition costs are likely to be significant.
    DOI: 10.1787/221824208526
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  • 31
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    Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 17 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.597
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper addresses the question of whether and how monetary policy ease may lead to excesses in financial and real asset markets and ultimately result in financial dislocation. It presents evidence suggesting that periods when short-term interest rates have been persistently and significantly below what Taylor rules would prescribe are correlated with increases in asset prices, especially as regards housing, though no systematic effects are identified on equity markets. Significant asset price increases, however, can also occur when interest rates are in line with Taylor rules, associated with periods of financial deregulation and/or innovation. The paper argues that accommodating monetary policy over the period 2002-2005, in combination with rapid financial market innovation, would seem in retrospect to have been among the factors behind the run-up in asset prices and consequent financial imbalances -- the (partial) unwinding of which helped trigger the 2007 financial market turmoil. Moreover, the paper points out that in certain situations policy rates may be a rather blunt tool for dealing with both the build-up and aftermath of financial imbalances, raising the question whether “macro-prudential” regulation could be useful.
    DOI: 10.1787/244200148201
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  • 32
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    Have Long-term Financial Trends Changed the Transmission of Monetary Policy? (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 38 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.634
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper addresses the question of whether and how long-term financial trends may have modified the transmission mechanism from monetary policy decisions to economic activity. The focus is on longterm changes, abstracting from the disruptions created by the 2007-08 financial turmoil which are temporarily affecting the transmission mechanism. The first series of findings is that a number of factors have worked to strengthen the transmission of monetary policy, including more competitive financial markets, higher household indebtedness, greater diversity in the supply of financial products, greater financial integration and more responsive asset pricing mechanisms. However, other factors appear to have simultaneously gone in the direction of weakening transmission of domestic policy, including greater external financial influences, lower exchange-rate pass-through and a broad-based shift towards fixed-rate assets and liabilities. On balance, monetary policy appears to remain a powerful tool for guiding aggregate demand, but a number of changes that have worked to support the strength of transmission have also increased risks to financial stability.
    DOI: 10.1787/238203348082
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    The Political Economy of Delaying Fiscal Consolidation (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.548
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Over the next decades, many OECD countries are anticipating large increases in public spending as a result of population ageing and other long-term structural trends. The need to put public finances on a sustainable footing is widely recognised, but progress has been uneven and slow. Some policy makers may feel that action can be deferred for a few years at little cost because of the long-term nature of the problem. This paper questions this perception by proposing a model of the political costs of consolidating public finances. The main finding is that even a short delay increases political cost of consolidation quite markedly when ultimately policy makers are facing a deadline by which sustainability must be restored. The conclusion is very robust to changes in assumptions and specification. A variant of the model shows that with an infinite horizon the incentive to consolidate is weaker, which highlights the importance of setting a deadline. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of the Euro area (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/euroarea).
    DOI: 10.1787/240788215175
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    Restoring Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area : Raise Taxes or Curb Spending? (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 40 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.520
    Keywords: Economics ; Euro Area
    Abstract: With population ageing, fiscal consolidation has become of paramount importance for euro area countries. Consolidation can be pursued in various ways, with different effects on potential growth, which itself will be dragged down by ageing. A dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations and a public finance block (including a pay-as-you-go pension regime, a health care system, non ageingrelated public spending and a stock of debt to be repaid) is used to compare the macroeconomic impact of four scenarios: a) increasing taxes to finance unchanged pensions and repay public debt, b) lowering future pension replacement rates and repaying public debt through a lower ratio of non ageing-related outlays to GDP, c) raising the retirement age by 1.25 years per decade and increasing taxes only to pay off debt, and d) increasing the retirement age by 1.25 years per decade and paying off debt through a lower ratio of non ageing-related expenditure to GDP. This last scenario is the one where growth is strongest: with gradual increases in the retirement age and spending restraint, average GDP growth in the 2010s would be 0.34 percentage point stronger than in a scenario where fiscal consolidation is achieved exclusively through tax hikes. The appropriate conclusion from the model is not that public spending is bad per se, but that cuts to lower-priority spending items can deliver surprisingly large income gains compared with the alternative of raising taxes.
    DOI: 10.1787/414711615127
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    Removing Obstacles to Employment for Women in Ireland (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 20 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.511
    Keywords: Economics ; Ireland
    Abstract: Women have contributed a great deal to Ireland's economic growth, including by joining the labour force in large numbers. The rise in female participation since 1990 has been amongst the strongest in the OECD, but from a low base. Female participation rates remain below the OECD average for all except the under-thirties. Cultural attitudes and low educational attainment among older women are factors, but policy settings play a role as well. Support to families is not targeted at working parents, implying that the return to work is low for many mothers. Working parents of school-age children also face difficulties in reconciling employment and work because out-of-school care is insufficiently developed. The tax system should be further improved to support second earners, most of whom are women, so as to strengthen their incentive to enter the labour market and reduce the bias in favour of the home production of services such as childcare. This paper reviews these issues and offers recommendations to continue to create a more favourable environment for women who want to enter the labour market.
    DOI: 10.1787/431167074033
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    Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain : The Impact of Structural Reform on Fiscal of Outcomes in EMU (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 18 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.522
    Keywords: Economics ; Euro Area
    Abstract: The 2005 reform of the EU Stability and Growth Pact has provided leeway for governments to let their fiscal deficit temporarily breach the 3% rule to finance the immediate budgetary cost of structural reform, such as compensation schemes to offset redistributive effects. Against this backdrop, it is useful to dispose of empirical estimates of the effect of structural reform on fiscal outcomes, not only the short term cost but also the long-run fiscal gain stemming from changes in spending parameters and better economic performance. Based on econometric estimates for a pool of 21 OECD countries, this study finds a significant net fiscal gain of structural reform.
    DOI: 10.1787/412188318674
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  • 37
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    House Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 20 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.450
    Keywords: Economics ; Euro Area
    Abstract: The inflation measure used by the European Central Bank excludes housing costs that are borne by home owners even though they make up more than a tenth of household final consumption expenditure in the euro area. Has the exclusion of owner-occupied housing costs driven a wedge between the official harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) and the cost of living? To answer this question, a measure of the user cost of housing capital has been constructed for every euro area country (except Luxembourg). User costs are measured taking into account property taxes but net of tax breaks that home owners enjoy on mortgage repayments. The user cost measure is combined with the HICP to derive a “broad” inflation estimate. For the sake of comparison, an alternative estimate has been put together using imputed rents. The main conclusion is that owner-occupied housing costs have an impact. Another important conclusion is that the effect of owner-occupied housing costs on inflation varies noticeably with the method used to incorporate them into the price index. The paper finally discusses the choice of the method from the point of view of economic policy makers. "This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Euro Area (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Euroarea)"
    DOI: 10.1787/037842735074
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    Sources of Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.435
    Keywords: Economics ; Euro Area
    Abstract: In recent years, inflation in the euro area has failed to decelerate decisively while cyclical slack built up in the economy. Is this phenomenon more than a peculiarity in recent data? Is it related to structural policy settings? Econometric analysis conducted on two decades of quarterly data covering 17 countries yields a yes on both counts. First, inflation is shown to respond significantly more weakly to cyclical slack in the euro area than in countries such as the United Kingdom, the United States or Canada. Secondly, this lack of responsiveness is found to be related in a statistically significant way to more rigid structural policy settings. The results pass a wide range of robustness checks. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of the euro area (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/euroarea).
    DOI: 10.1787/854075872581
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