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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (84)
  • Reisen, Helmut  (48)
  • de Mello, Luiz  (36)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (84)
  • Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest
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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (84)
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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (22 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Working Papers on Fiscal Federalism no.43
    Keywords: Environment ; Taxation ; Development
    Abstract: This paper explores the nexus between decarbonisation and intergovernmental fiscal relations, focusing on related challenges and reform options. It highlights the significant role of subnational governments in tackling climate change. Subnational and national governments share responsibilities in areas such as taxation, spending and regulation pertaining to environmental protection, as well as climate change mitigation and adaptation, which calls for effective intergovernmental co-operation to align policy objectives and implementation strategies. The paper outlines decarbonisation requirements across sectors and discusses subnational government involvement in service delivery, investment, revenue generation and regulatory frameworks. Policy options to strengthen subnational contributions to national decarbonisation goals are presented. While focusing primarily on OECD countries, the paper acknowledges the need for improved information on subnational decarbonisation efforts in both advanced and developing countries.
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (30 Seiten) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Working Papers on Fiscal Federalism no.37
    Keywords: Economics ; Governance
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating effects on lives, the economy, and the public finances worldwide, drawing attention to the need to enhance resilience to future shocks. This paper focuses on subnational governments, given their important and growing role in the provision of essential public goods and services worldwide. The paper discusses key aspects of subnational resilience, in particular the sensitivity of subnational finances to macroeconomic cycles and shocks and the availability of fiscal buffers; the main factors influencing subnational governments’ ability to provide essential services during crises; and their ability to anticipate and prepare for future shocks, especially those related to climate change. The paper also discusses policy and institutional reform options for both national and the subnational governments to strengthen subnational resilience.
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.871
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 55 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.296
    Keywords: Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 24 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.825
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil ; Indonesia
    Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis that, by giving people more voice in the government decision-making process, fiscal decentralisation fosters social capital, measured in terms of interpersonal trust. Empirical evidence based on World Values Survey data and seemingly unrelated probit estimations for a cross-section of countries suggests that people living in federal/decentralised countries find it more important to have voice in government decisions than their counterparts living in unitary/centralised countries. Pro-voice attitudes are, in turn, associated with greater social capital. The cross-country estimations are complemented by country-specific regressions for Brazil and Indonesia on account of these countries. experiences with fiscal decentralisation. The results show that the cohorts of individuals that have been exposed to decentralisation are in general more pro-voice (and trustful of strangers in the case of Brazil) than their counterparts that have not been exposed to decentralisation. These findings are not driven by the effects of political liberalisation on people.s attitudes towards the importance of having voice in government decisions and interpersonal trust.
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  • 6
    Online Resource
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 44 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.810
    Keywords: Economics ; Indonesia
    Abstract: Indonesia has made considerable progress over the years in improving the social conditions of its population, especially among disadvantaged groups, not least by raising government spending and strengthening social protection programmes. Nevertheless, in some respects social outcomes remain sub-par in relation to regional peers.
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.813
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  • 8
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 33 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.795
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper assesses the sustainability of global imbalances by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account positions (measured in relation to GDP) of the United States, China, Japan, Germany and the oil-exporting countries using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in levels and trends. We find that the external positions of these major countries/regions are stationary around structural breaks, which define episodes of current account reversals. On the basis of an event analysis of past reversals, it appears that structural breaks are associated with shifts in the fiscal stance, exchange rate parities and potential output growth, a finding that underscores the scope for macroeconomic and structural policies to ensure the sustainability of external positions while avoiding potentially disruptive reversals. These findings have implications for long-term capital flows after the crisis.
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  • 9
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.793
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The global crisis has left many G20 countries with an unenviable legacy of lower potential output and high government indebtedness. Global imbalances, which had narrowed during the recession, are now beginning to widen again, as the recovery takes hold. Structural reform will be needed not only to recover the crisis-driven output loss and to maintain it in the longer term, but also to put the public finances back on a sustainable path and to rebalance global growth. To contribute to the policy debate, this paper summarises the analysis carried out by the OECD on the effects of a host of structural reforms on GDP growth, public finances and external current account balances.
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  • 10
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.824
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Despite large differences across countries, Latin America’s average investment-to-GDP ratio and the overall quality of infrastructure in the region are relatively low by international comparison. Empirical evidence on the effects of fiscal decentralisation on investment based on a panel of Latin American countries since the late 1990 suggests that fiscal decentralisation discourages Latin American subnational governments from investing (acquiring fixed assets) and that lower subnational spending on investment is associated with lower economy-wide gross fixed capital formation. Latin American countries will therefore need to face a double challenge of revisiting the current arrangements for decentralised provision that discourage subnational governments from investing, while making the most of decentralisation as a policy lever to raise private investment.
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  • 11
    Language: English
    Pages: 38 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.292
    Keywords: Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
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  • 12
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Insights no.88
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Comment mieux exploiter l'ITIE ?
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI, www.eitransparency.org) aims to improve transparency and accountability by the full publication and verification of company payments and government revenues. The revenues flowing from natural resources extraction are huge. EITI is one of the international soft-law tools most supported by the international community to curb corruption and help the 3.5 billion people – half the population of the planet – living in resource-rich countries to benefit from the sale of their natural resources. Almost six years after the initiative was launched, the results are elusive for several countries. Figure 1 below shows that governments’ public endorsement of the EITI principles does not, on average, improve the perception of corruption levels in their countries. Moreover, according to the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, corruption control in EITI countries is worse than in non-EITI resource-rich countries. EITI countries’ scores deteriorated between 2002 and 2007. While these corruption indices are not limited to extractive industries, given their importance in the countries concerned, one would expectmore visible improvements in these indicators.
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.712
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.690
    Keywords: Economics ; Indonesia
    Abstract: This paper uses household survey (Sakernas) data from the 1996 and 2004 to estimate the determinants of earnings in Indonesia. The Indonesian labour market is segmented, with a majority of workers engaged in informal-sector occupations, and earnings data are available only for formal-sector workers (salaried employees). This posed problems for the estimation of earnings equations, because selection into different labour market statuses is likely to be non-random. In order to describe selection into different labour market statuses we use the most general version of the method proposed by Dubin and McFadden (1984), which Bourguignon, Fournier and Gurgand (2007) proved to be preferable to other available multinomial selection methods. We also deal with reverse causality between education attainment and earnings by estimating the selection equations using an instrumental variable technique. Our findings cast doubt on the use of a binomial selection rule and suggest that workers with higher levels of educational attainment are most likely to find a job in the formal sector, and that the informal sector is perceived by those workers who cannot obtain a job in the formal sector as an alternative to inactivity. This Working Paper relates to the 2008 OECD Economic Assessment of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia).
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  • 15
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Centre de développement de l'OCDE - Repères no.88
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Extracting More From EITI
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: L’Initiative pour la transparence dans les industries extractives (ITIE) vise à accroître la transparence et la responsabilité des acteurs de ce secteur à travers la publication intégrale et la vérification des paiements effectués par les entreprises et des recettes encaissées par les États.
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 24 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.711
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.679
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  • 18
    Language: English
    Pages: 20 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.704
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil, like other natural resource-exporting countries, has benefited from a sharp increase in commodity prices over the last few years. To investigate the possible impact of terms-of-trade gains on the real economy, this paper estimates normalised quadratic input demand and output supply functions for the Brazilian economy during 1997-2008. Technological change is modelled in a flexible manner through the inclusion of quadratic splines in the profit function. The paper contributes to the literature by using nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression techniques to estimate the input demand and output supply functions and by disaggregating exports and imports into capital, consumption and intermediate goods. Improvements in the terms of trade due to rising export prices and/or falling import prices are associated with hikes in export volumes on the back of rising import demand and some labour shedding in the sectors using imported capital goods. The direct impact of terms-of-trade changes on domestic consumption and investment is comparatively modest, possibly due to the fact that the Brazilian economy remains relatively closed to trade.
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  • 19
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.710
    Keywords: Economics ; Indonesia
    Abstract: The Indonesian labour market is characterised by widespread informality. To some extent, these outcomes can be attributed to a sharp increase in the real value of the minimum wage since 2001, when minimum-wage setting was decentralised to the provincial governments. To test this hypothesis, this paper uses survey data on the labour market (Sakernas), household income and expenditure (Susenas) and the industrial sector (Survei Industri) to construct a district-level dataset spanning the period 1996 to 2004. The effects of changes in the minimum wage on unemployment, formal-sector employment and the incidence of informality in urban areas are estimated separately by fixed effects and jointly by a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimator. Our findings show that an increase in the minimum-to-mean wage ratio is associated with a net increase in employment: a rise in informal-sector employment more than compensates for job losses in the formal sector. This Working Paper relates to the 2008 OECD Economic Assessment of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia).
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  • 20
    Online Resource
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 35 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.703
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: The possibility that a country’s external current account may adjust nonlinearly to shocks is attracting increasing attention in the empirical literature. To shed further light on this issue in the context of emerging-market economies, this paper uses Brazilian data to estimate the determinants of the current account in a smooth-transition vector-autoregressive (ST-VAR) setting. We allow for the transition parameters and the model coefficients to be estimated simultaneously by non-linear constrained maximum likelihood. We find strong evidence of non-linearity in the VAR when (lagged) government consumption and investment are used as the variables governing transition across regimes. The computation of non-linear impulse response functions suggests that the system’s history, as well as the sign and magnitude of shocks, affect the current account’s responses to exogenous changes in income, government consumption and investment. In particular, responses to fiscal shocks depend on whether they are positive or negative and whether they follow periods of fiscal expansions or contractions. Current account responses to a positive fiscal impulse are much stronger when conditioned on periods of fiscal expansion (rising government consumption) than retrenchment. The importance of conditioning history and the magnitude of shocks in the current account’s response to shocks is confirmed by forecast error variance decomposition analysis.
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  • 21
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Centre de développement de l'OCDE - Repères no.57
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. From Old-Donor Debt Relief to Emerging Lenders in Africa
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: La croissance de nombreux pays africains attire, à un niveau sans précédent, les capital-risqueurs et les investissements boursiers sur le continent. Cet engouement nouveau des investisseurs est favorisé par un environnement, économique et politique, qui devrait aller en s'améliorant.
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  • 22
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Insights no.57
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Des donateurs traditionnels aux prêteurs émergents en Afrique
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: China helps growth and debt sustainability in Africa through debt relief, infrastructure investment and higher exports. China and other emerging lenders should engage in a debt transparency initiative that considers such growth effects. This will encourage emerging lenders to co-operate with the ‘international community’ on Africa’s debt sustainability.
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: 56 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.268
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Over recent years, a number of emerging creditors have increased their aid and lending to Africa’s Low-Income Countries (LICs). This has fed worries that new official lenders may be undoing years of international efforts to rein in over-indebtedness in Africa, to reduce the continent’s exposure to foreign-currency denominated debt and to encourage good governance by making loans conditional on political and economic reforms. These worries are reflected in the G8 Action Plan for Good Financial Governance in Africa, which attempts to include emerging lenders in the DSF framework — the Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework. The empirical analysis of debt dynamics distinguishes three country groups: African HIPC, HIPC-China (High China Presence), and Resource-rich IDA-only. All groups display marked trends of lower debt ratios (in net present value terms, NPV), in most cases below debtdistress level for even the lowest governance groups. Evidence on links between growth and lending may even suggest that African HIPC are currently under-leveraged. Generally, there is very little evidence of “imprudent lending” to debt relief beneficiaries in the figures up to 2006. The Asian giants lower debt ratios a little through debt relief, but they do this even more through stimulating exports and growth. This holds in particular for those countries towards which their lending is mostly directed: the resource-rich countries, rather than the debt-relief beneficiaries.
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  • 24
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.605
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: Compliance with the structural budget surplus rule, which has been in place since 2001, has allowed the government to maintain a counter-cyclical fiscal stance in an environment of rising copper prices, while delivering a gradual reduction in public indebtedness. Monetary policy is conducted within a framework that combines inflation targeting with exchange-rate flexibility. A Fiscal Responsibility Law was promulgated in September 2006, strengthening the macroeconomic framework further by embedding the fiscal rule in law and setting out regulations for the use of fiscal savings. Complementary pension reform is being discussed in Congress with the objective of strengthening the pension system’s solidarity pillar and encouraging retirement saving. The tax system is also being improved with a view to removing obstacles to financial deepening and to business-sector development. Government spending on social programmes is budgeted to rise considerably, in line with the authorities’ emphasis on social development. The main challenge in the macroeconomic area is to maintain the policy setting that has served Chile so well over the recent copper-price upswing, while tempering demands for hiking public social spending and maintaining a lean public sector in a low-tax, low-debt environment. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
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  • 25
    Online Resource
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.604
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper develops a differential game of tax avoidance by modelling the interactions between a taxpayer and the tax authority. This framework is particularly useful for explicitly modelling situations of conflict. The solution to the game is a non-co-operative Nash that depends on the resources that need to be used by the tax authority to enforce legislation and the cost to be borne by the taxpayer in tax compliance, provided that the curvature of the utility functions is bounded. Empirical evidence is provided for the value added tax (VAT) using a cross-section of OECD and non-OECD countries. OECD indicators of tax administration efficiency are included in the regressions. The empirical findings show that VAT efficiency, defined as the ratio of collections as a share of consumption to the statutory rate, rises the lower the VAT rate, the lower the share of administrative costs in tax revenue (proxying for the efficiency of tax administration), the more pro-competition the regulatory framework in product markets (measuring non-tax incentives for non-compliance) and the better the country’s governance indicators (regulatory quality, rule of law and government effectiveness). This paper is forthcoming in the Public Finance Review.
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  • 26
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 48 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.637
    Keywords: Economics ; Indonesia
    Abstract: Indonesia’s growth performance is improving, following a slow recovery from the 1997-98 financial crisis. Investment is picking up, despite considerable business-climate obstacles to entrepreneurship. Unemployment remains high, and labour informality is pervasive. Fiscal policy has been conducted responsibly and in an increasingly decentralised manner. Monetary policy is now carried out within a fully-fledged inflation-targeting framework. This paper argues that the main barriers to raising the economy’s growth potential are to be found on the supply side of the economy. Indonesia will need to improve the business environment and to make better use of labour inputs to put the economy on a higher growth trajectory. The country’s income gap relative to the OECD is sizeable, and several years of sustained growth will be needed to eliminate it. This Working Paper relates to the 2008 OECD Economic Assessment of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia).
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  • 27
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Insights no.83
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. La crise financière et ses retombées (1) : Les marchés émergents à l'épreuve
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The contagion of the global credit crisis from the industrialised countries to the emerging markets has taken some time to develop. Then, in October 2008, it spread rapidly, afflicting all emerging markets, without any distinction or regard to their so-called “fundamentals”. For believers in “decoupling”, the high growth rates, massive foreign exchange (FX) reserves, balanced budgets and rising consumerism in the emerging markets at first reassured investors. It is now clear that the diagnosis of emerging-market policy performance suffered from hyperbole. In the end, all emerging market asset classes were hit: stocks, bonds and currencies.
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  • 28
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 22 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs no.38
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Comment reconvertir ressources et revenus : Du bon usage des fonds souverains
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  • 29
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.608
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: Chile’s labour force participation is low by comparison with most countries in the OECD area, especially among females and youths. In the case of women, labour supply has risen steadily over time for prime-age and older individuals, against a background of relative stability for men. With regards to youths, participation rates are trending down, primarily as a result of rising school enrolment, especially for males, while remaining fairly low and stable over the years for young females. The main policy challenge in this area is to raise female labour supply further, for both prime-age individuals and youths, as a means of making a better use of labour inputs in support of long-term growth. This can be achieved essentially by removing provisions in the labour code that constrain the allocation of working time and by improving access to affordable child care for mothers with young children. Policies aimed at fostering human capital accumulation for the population as a whole would also contribute, because educational attainment is one of the most powerful determinants of labour force participation. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
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  • 30
    Language: French
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Centre de développement de l'OCDE - Repères no.83
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. The Fallout from the Financial Crisis (1): Emerging Markets under Stress
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: La crise mondiale du crédit qui a frappé les pays industrialisés n’a contaminé les marchés émergents que tardivement. Cependant, en octobre 2008, elle s’est rapidement étendue à tous ces pays, sans distinction ni considération pour ce qu’il est convenu d’appeler leurs « fondamentaux ». Les investisseurs adeptes du « découplage » ont d’abord été rassurés par les taux de croissance élevés, les réserves colossales de devises étrangères, l’équilibre des budgets et le consumérisme naissant. Mais il est désormais clair que l’évaluation de la performance des politiques publiques de ces États a péché par optimisme. En définitive, toutes les classes d’actifs ont été touchées : actions, obligations et monnaies.
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  • 31
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 25 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE no.38
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. How to Spend It: Commodity and Non-Commodity Sovereign Wealth Funds
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Les fonds souverains sont devenus des acteurs de premier plan sur les marchés financiers mondiaux. Mais leurs investissements ont régulièrement nourri des craintes, d’espionnage industriel ou d’ordre géopolitique notamment. Pour l’auteur de ce Cahier de politique économique, la raison même de la création de ces fonds devrait permettre de prendre du recul. L’économie du développement vient expliquer les sources de l’épargne comme les motifs à l’origine de la vogue récente des fonds et invite les pays de l’OCDE à renoncer à imposer des restrictions aux investissements. En posant des limites aux fonds souverains des pays riches en pétrole, le protectionnisme va réduire le rendement ajusté au risque pour les pays exportateurs et pourrait provoquer une augmentation des cours, alimentée par une réduction de l’offre.
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  • 32
    Language: French
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Centre de développement de l'OCDE - Repères no.72
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. En Route to Accra: The Global Development-Finance Non-System
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: L’architecture internationale du financement du développement se complique avec l’arrivée de nouveaux acteurs et instruments. Les doublons entre donneurs, la dérive des objectifs des projets en cours (« mission creep ») et l’érosion de leur impact remettent en question l’efficacité de l’aide. Des mesures spécifiques concernant les contributions multilatérales aux objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement pourraient élargir la responsabilité des acteurs et réduire la complexité du processus.
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  • 33
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Insights no.72
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Le rendez-vous d'Accra : Réformer le 〈〈 non-système 〉〉 mondial de financement du développement
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: New actors and instruments have increased the complexity of the international development-finance architecture Efficient aid delivery confronts challenges: multilateral duplication, mission creep and loss of leverage. Specific measures of multilaterals’ contributions to the MDGs could promote accountability and reduce complexity.
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  • 34
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Insights no.59
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Fonds d'État et richesse des nations : Tout s'explique ..
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Development economics can explain both saving sources and motives that have led to the recent SWF boom, thus helping avoid investment restrictions in OECD countries. As the economics underlying funds from oil exporting countries are different from the economics of East Asian funds, so are the appropriate policy answers.
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.593
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil ; Czech Republic
    Abstract: The bulk of recent literature on foreign-exchange interventions has overlooked the potential interdependencies that may exist between these operations and the conduct of monetary policy. This is the case even under inflation targeting and especially in emerging-market economies, because central banks often explicitly reserve the right to intervene to calm disorderly markets and to accumulate foreign reserves, and when the exchange rate is perceived as out of step with fundamentals. This paper uses a friction model to estimate intervention reaction functions and the associated marginal effects for Brazil and the Czech Republic since adoption of inflation targeting in these countries in 1999 and 1998, respectively. The main findings are that: i) in both countries interventions occur predominantly to reduce exchange-rate volatility, while in Brazil the central bank also reacts to exchange-rate deviations from medium-term trends; ii) there are strong, asymmetric threshold effects in the reaction functions, and interventions are more likely and of higher magnitudes when they are carried out to depreciate than to appreciate the domestic currency; and iii) interventions seem to take place independently of contemporaneous monetary policy in Brazil, but not in the Czech Republic, where both policies appear to be interrelated.
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  • 36
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Centre de développement de l'OCDE - Repères no.59
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. How to Spend It: Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Wealth of Nations
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: L’économie du développement peut expliquer à la fois les sources de l’épargne et les motivations ayant conduit à l’essor récent des Fonds d’État, permettant ainsi d’éviter les restrictions d’investissement pour les pays de l’OCDE. De même que les fonds économiques sous-jacents en provenance des pays exportateurs de pétrole diffèrent de ceux provenant d’Asie de l’Est, il en va de même pour les réponses politiques appropriées.
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: 36 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.607
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: Informality often arises from disincentives associated with high taxes and a restrictive regulatory framework in both labour and product markets. About 20% of the Chilean population aged 15 years and above and working at least 20 hours per week did not have a formal labour contract in 2006. At the same time, nearly 11% of the potential value added tax base is estimated to have been undeclared in 2005. While Chile’s tax system is not particularly burdensome to business formality, there is scope for making product-market regulations less onerous to firms and the labour code more flexible, especially with regards to indefinite contracts and the allocation of working time. Low human capital remains an important obstacle to reducing labour informality. To the extent that informal businesses also hire informally, there is some room for designing policies to tackle business informality in conjunction with those aimed at boosting formal labour contracting. Chile is strengthening its social safety net through the introduction of unemployment insurance and by reforming existing health insurance and pension systems. An important policy question is whether the incentives for formality arising from more comprehensive social protection will be strong enough to compensate for the additional costs these contributory programmes entail. This paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.544
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper tests for horizontal tax competition in the VAT for a sample of Brazilian states in the period 1985-2001. The states have considerable autonomy to set their VAT rates and bases, often using this tax as an industrial policy tool. The empirical findings, based on the estimation of a tax reaction function in an error-correction set-up, confirm the hypothesis of horizontal tax competition: the states react strongly to changes in their neighbours? VAT code, especially those that belong to the same geo-economic region. Also, there appears to be a Stackelberg leader among the states, with the remaining jurisdictions responding strongly to its policy moves. There is no co-occupancy of tax bases between different levels of government and hence limited scope for vertical externalities in tax setting. But the fact that the federal government shares with the states part of the revenue of its more elastic taxes, such as the income tax, appears to affect the opportunity cost of horizontal tax competition.
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  • 39
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Insights no.44
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Annuler la dette ? Oui. Renoncer aux prêts ? Non
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Cancelling of poor-country debt does not mean that the best way to give aid is through grants only. Aid through loans may often prove superior, provided that it maintains debt sustainability. A new scheme for soft loans is suggested, with higher interest rates and cancellation provisions if bad shocks occur, to minimise moral hazard and strengthen debt sustainability
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  • 40
    Language: English
    Pages: 30 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.581
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: There is a large literature on how the sharing of revenue between different levels of government and the design of intergovernmental transfer schemes affect sub-national finances. Using a panel of OECD countries during 1980-2005, this paper tests for: i) the presence of a stable long-run statistical association between changes in transfer receipts and sub-national net worth and ii) the direction of causality between changes in transfer receipts and net worth. The main empirical findings are that, first, there is a stable long-term relationship between transfer receipts and local government net worth for the case of current, but not capital, transfers. An increase in intergovernmental transfer receipts is found to be associated with a modest reduction in the recipient jurisdiction’s net worth over the long term, but a fall in net worth is associated with an almost one-to-one subsequent increase in transfer receipts. Second, the direction of causality is sensitive to the technique used to estimate the long-term parameters. One technique suggests that causality runs from transfers to net worth, which lends support to a large literature on the effect of cost-shifting on sub-national budget outcomes. But causality also appears to run from net worth to transfer receipts, suggesting that transfers may be used as a deficitfinancing tool.
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  • 41
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Centre de développement de l'OCDE - Repères no.44
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Forgive Debt, but Keep Lending
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: L’annulation de la dette des pays pauvres ne signifie pas que les dons soient la meilleure et unique solution pour allouer l’aide. L’aide sous forme de prêts pourrait se révéler bien souvent préférable, pourvu que la dette reste soutenable. Un nouveau système de prêts subventionnés, assortis de taux d’intérêt supérieurs et de dispositifs d’annulation en cas de mauvais chocs, minimiserait l’aléa moral et améliorerait la soutenabilité de la dette.
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.545
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil ; Chile ; Colombia ; Mexico
    Abstract: In 1999, new monetary policy regimes were adopted in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, combining inflation targeting with floating exchange rates. These regime changes have been accompanied by lower volatility in the monetary stance in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, despite higher inflation volatility in Brazil and Colombia. This paper estimates a conventional New Keynesian model for these four countries and shows that: i) the post-1999 regime has been associated with greater responsiveness by the monetary authority to changes in expected inflation in Brazil and Chile, while in Colombia and Mexico monetary policy has become less counter-cyclical, ii) lower interest-rate volatility in the post-1999 period owes more to a benign economic environment than to a change in the policy setting, and iii) the change in the monetary regime has not yet resulted in a reduction in output volatility in these countries.
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  • 43
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 42 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.531
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil has made considerable progress in recent years towards consolidating macroeconomic stability, which is a key framework condition for sustained growth. Monetary policy continues to respond swiftly to changes in the inflation outlook, anchoring expectations. Fiscal policy has been guided by debt sustainability considerations, delivering primary budget surpluses that have often exceeded the end-year targets. Nevertheless, while the public debt-to-GDP has been reduced, it remains high, especially in comparison with other emerging-market economies. Brazil?s overarching macroeconomic challenge is therefore to continue to reduce the public debt overhang while improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, which has so far been underpinned by revenue hikes, rather than a retrenchment of expenditure commitments. To do so, measures will need to be taken to arrest the increase in current spending, especially on pensions, paving the way for subsequently removing distortions and reducing the tax burden over the medium to longer term, once the debt-to-GDP ratio has been reduced in a sustainable manner. The favourable domestic macroeconomic environment, with falling inflation and improving growth prospects, appears propitious for reform towards the gradual phasing-out of directed credit and a reduction in compulsory reserve requirements.
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  • 44
    Language: French
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Centre de développement de l'OCDE - Repères no.19
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. The Rise of China and India: What's in it for Africa?
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: La forte demande d’énergie et de minerais par la Chine et l’Inde a poussé à la hausse les prix internationaux des matières premières, ainsi que le volume et la valeur des exportations africaines.
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  • 45
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 41 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.533
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Labour force participation is comparable to the OECD area for prime-age males. It is somewhat lower for females and is trending down for youths as a result of rising school enrolment. The labour market is placing an increasing premium on skills, making it particularly difficult for the less educated to find a job. Labour informality is pervasive and turnover high, especially for the less educated, discouraging investment in labour training and the acquisition of job-related skills, and perpetuating income disparities. The main policy challenge is to improve labour utilisation by reducing informality and fostering human capital accumulation on and off the job. A stable macroeconomy is a pre-condition for reducing unemployment, but a greater focus on activation within the current policy framework would be advisable. To close the remaining gender gap, female labour force participation in full-time jobs could be encouraged by increasing the supply of affordable child care and pre-school education. Labour turnover can be reduced by mitigating the incentives for negotiated separation, which currently arise from the design of severance insurance (FGTS) in the event of unfair dismissal. Skill marketability can be enhanced through the introduction of a national skills certification system, and labour training can become more cost-effective through increased contestability in existing programmes.
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  • 46
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.532
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil's main challenge in innovation policy is to encourage the business sector to engage in productivity-enhancing innovative activities. At 1% of GDP, R&D spending (both public and private) is comparatively low by OECD standards and is carried out predominantly by the government. Most scientists work in public universities and research institutions, rather than in the business sector. Output indicators, such as the number of patents held abroad, suggest that there is much scope for improvement. Academic patenting effort is being stepped up and should be facilitated by the easing of restrictions on the transfer and sharing of proceeds of intellectual property rights between businesses and public universities and research institutions. Innovation policy is beginning to focus on the potential synergies among science and technology promotion, R&D support and trade competitiveness. To be successful in boosting business innovation, these policies will need to be complemented by measures aimed at tackling the shortage of skills in the labour force; this shortage is among the most important deterrents to innovation in Brazil, particularly against the backdrop of a widening gap in tertiary educational attainment with respect to the OECD area.
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  • 47
    Language: English
    Pages: 22 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.534
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper reviews the main elements of social security reform in Brazil since 1998 and discusses areas where further policy action is yet to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the social-security system over time. Outlays on pensions paid to private-sector workers have risen as a result of population ageing and the increase in the value of the minimum wage in real terms, to which the minimum pension is linked. Some features of existing social protection programmes, including means-tested old-age and disability-related benefits, reduce the incentives facing workers to seek social security coverage. At the same time, an expansion of the base of contributions to social security has been constrained by widespread labour informality. Further reform will therefore need to focus on options for containing the rise in social security spending while tackling labour informality so as to broaden the base of contributions.
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  • 48
    Language: English
    Pages: 2 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Insights no.19
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. L'essor de la Chine et de l'Inde : Quels enjeux pour l'Afrique ?
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: China’s and India’s strong appetite for energy and metal has boosted international prices and the volume and value of African exports. China in particular has become the main trade partner for a number of African countries providing cheap manufactured goods and reducing Africa's dependence from its traditional trading partners. Despite the push for exports, terms of trade and growth that the Asian giants provide to Africa, risks for sustainable poverty reduction are visible in higher raw material dependence and rent-seeking activities.
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  • 49
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs no.31
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Après Gleneagles : La place des prêts dans l'APD
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Suppose a DAC donor earmarks $1 billion of taxpayers’ money for official development assistance (ODA). The donor may use two instruments as an outright grant or in combination with a market loan to produce a concessional loan of $2 billion with a percentage grant element of 50 per cent. Many nowadays think the choice should be clear: provide grants only, leave loans to the market. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to qualify and inform this choice....
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  • 50
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 30 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE no.31
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. After Gleneagles: What Role for Loans in ODA?
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Supposons qu’un bailleur du CAD (Comité d’aide au développement de l’OCDE) alloue un milliard de dollars de ses recettes fiscales à l’aide publique au développement (APD). Ce bailleur peut faire appel à deux instruments : soit un don pur et simple, soit un don associé à un prêt aux conditions du marché, qui revient à accorder un prêt concessionnel de 2 milliards de dollars avec un élément-don de 50 pour cent. Nombreux sont ceux qui estiment aujourd’hui que le choix est évident : l’aide doit prendre la forme de dons et laisser les prêts au marché. L’objectif de ce Cahier de politique économique est de qualifier et éclairer ce choix....
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  • 51
    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.485
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: Brazil's fiscal adjustment since the floating of the real in 1999 has been impressive, even in periods of lacklustre growth. This suggests a remarkable fiscal effort to ensure public debt sustainability. To better gauge the magnitude of this adjustment effort, this paper applies the methodology used by the OECD Secretariat to distinguish changes in the fiscal stance that are due to policy action from those that are related to the automatic stabilisers built into the tax code, the social security system and unemployment insurance. The paper's main finding is that discretionary action tends to be essentially pro-cyclical in downturns, underscoring the presence of a strong "sustainability motive" in the conduct of Brazilian fiscal policy. Spending on mandatory items, such as personnel, are pro-cyclical in upturns too, which can create a "ratcheting-up" effect on government spending over time, an issue that will have to be addressed to improve the quality of on-going fiscal adjustment. An increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio by 1 percentage point is associated with a decrease in discretionary federal spending by 0.33 percentage point during 1997-2005. This responsiveness appears to have become stronger after the floating of the real in 1999. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Brazil (www.oecd.org/eco/survey/brazil).
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  • 52
    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.494
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper provides cross-country empirical evidence on the productivity of bank transaction taxes (BTTs). Our data set comprises six Latin American countries that have levied BTTs since the late 1980s: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. We find that, for a given tax rate, revenue declines over time. Therefore, in order to meet a fixed revenue target in real terms, the tax rate needs to be raised repeatedly. However, we also find that successive increases in the tax rate erode the tax base by more than they raise revenue yield and that the higher the increase in the tax rate, the more and faster the tax base is eroded. We conclude that BTTs do not provide a reliable source of revenue, especially over the medium term.
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  • 53
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.423
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent trends in fiscal performance in Brazil, estimates fiscal reaction functions for the consolidated public sector and different levels of government, and tests for the sustainability of the public debt dynamics. The empirical analysis, based on monthly data for the period 1995-2004, suggests that all levels of government react strongly to changes in indebtedness by adjusting their primary budget surplus targets. In addition, the central government appears to follow a spend-and-tax policy: changes in revenue are affected strongly by expenditure, with about two-thirds of changes in primary spending being offset through higher revenue over the long term. Institutions are also found to matter for fiscal sustainability. The responsiveness of sub-national fiscal stance to indebtedness, as well as that of central government revenue to changes in primary spending, appears to have strengthened after 1998, when ceilings on indebtedness were introduced.
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  • 54
    Language: English
    Pages: 40 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.241
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Three novel macroeconomic policy challenges are discussed in this paper: the macroeconomic implications of China’s emergence; the implications of intensifying financial integration; and the interaction of Asia’s foreign exchange regime with monetary policy in the OECD area. First, China may now be regarded as a price maker on some international commodity and energy markets. Its global impact nowadays stretches importantly not just into goods and commodity markets, but equally into world financial markets. The acquisition by the Chinese official sector of large amounts of foreign assets has raised the country’s global cyclical, financial and macroeconomic importance. Hence, China should not just be perceived as a producer of low-priced goods, but likewise of “cheap savings”. China as a swing exporter/importer could destabilise commodity markets, with important repercussions for developing countries. Variations in China’s output gap will have important repercussions on key global ...
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  • 55
    Language: English
    Pages: 30 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.455
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: Chile’s regulatory framework is working reasonably well. The country’s structural reforms since the 1980s, with the privatisation of utilities and deregulation of product and labour markets, have improved resource allocation and increased the population’s access to basic services, while calling for a comprehensive upgrading of regulatory institutions. At the same time, public-private partnerships (PPPs) are contributing to closing Chile’s infrastructure deficit, particularly in transport. The recurrent cuts in shipments of natural gas from Argentina since 2004 have put additional strain on regulation in the electricity sector to encourage investment in generation and ensure the security of supply. This paper reviews regulatory reform in three network industries (electricity, gas and telecoms), where further liberalisation, particularly in electricity retailing, and improvements in the regulation of telecoms would do much to further improve the business climate. The governance of public-private partnerships can be improved by increasing transparency and accountability in the concession process. In doing so, the government’s exposure to contingent liabilities can be contained. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
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  • 56
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 27 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.424
    Keywords: Economics ; Brazil
    Abstract: For many years, Brazil lagged behind other middle-income countries in terms of school enrolment rates. But since 1998 policies have aimed at bridging this gap, in particular, with the implementation of FUNDEF, a fund for financing sub-national spending on primary and lower-secondary education. Using state- and municipality-level data during 1991-2002, this paper shows that FUNDEF played a key role in the increase in enrolment rates over the period, particularly in small municipalities, which rely more heavily on transfers from higher levels of government as a source of revenue. These findings underscore the importance of FUNDEF in eliminating supply constraints to the improvement of education attainment. Enrolment rates are now nearly universal for primary and lower-secondary education. Emphasis should therefore be placed on policies to improve the quality of services and to remove supply constraints to the expansion of enrolment in upper-secondary and tertiary education.
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  • 57
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.454
    Keywords: Economics ; Chile
    Abstract: A good framework for investment in innovation can contribute to increasing Chile’s growth potential. Spending on R&D is currently low in relation to GDP and heavily reliant on government financing. Innovation activity in the business sector is also limited by insufficient seed and venture capital and human capital constraints. This is despite several favourable framework conditions, including a stable macro-economy, liberal foreign trade and investment regimes, and reasonably pro-competition regulations in product markets. The government intends to increase public spending on R&D, to be financed by revenue from the mining tax introduced in May 2005, and to create a National Innovation Council. The effectiveness of these measures will depend largely on the extent to which they will boost business-financed innovation consistent with Chile’s comparative advantages. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of Chile (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/chile).
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  • 58
    Language: French
    Pages: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE no.24
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Innovative Approaches to Funding the Millennium Development Goals
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • Après Monterrey, en dépit des initiatives des bailleurs de fonds, les Objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement manquent de financements. • Les critères de sélection de nouvelles ressources sont : leur rendement potentiel, leur complémentarité et la rapidité de leur mobilisation, ainsi que la faisabilité politique de cette mobilisation. • Au vu de ces conditions, il est peu probable qu’une taxation au niveau mondial puisse être mise en place à temps. • La Facilité de financement international, des garanties publiques et l’émission de titres obligataires au niveau mondial pourraient être utilisées conjointement et sont davantage susceptibles de procurer les fonds nécessaires à la réalisation des Objectifs du Millénaire. • Augmenter l’APD est le moyen le plus simple et le plus sûr d’éviter que les Objectifs manquent de ressources.
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  • 59
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs no.24
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Financer les objectifs du millénaire pour le développement
    Keywords: Development ; Millenniumsziele
    Abstract: • Despite post-Monterrey donor initiatives, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are underfinanced. • The revenue potential, the additionality and the speed of availability of new finance sources, and their political feasibility, are of particular importance. • On these criteria, it is unlikely that global taxes will be introduced in time. • The International Finance Facility, strengthened use of public guarantees and Global Premium Bonds, perhaps in combination, may stand a better chance of providing additional funds for the MDGs. • The most straightforward way to avoid underfunding of the Goals is to raise ODA further.
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  • 60
    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.397
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which fiscal policy actions may be offset by simultaneous, anticipatory changes in private saving, as well as the determinants of that offset. The conditions under which private agents will engage in forward-looking consumption-smoothing behaviour are quite strict and unlikely to hold fully in practice. However, based on a sample of at most 21 OECD countries spanning the period 1970-2002, there is strong evidence of partial, yet substantial, offsetting movements in aggregate private and public saving. The overall offset is estimated at between about one-third and one-half, depending on model specification, and applies both to public consumption and revenue shifts. This is consistent with a marked degree of anticipatory private sector behaviour, insofar as the ex ante saving “leakage” embedded in the pure Keynesian or IS/LM type models would be expected to be smaller and apply only to revenues and transfers. Wealth effects, as in the case of rising equity and housing prices, are found to have an important complementary impact on saving, usually in reinforcing the direct saving offset. Initial conditions, as reflected in debt/GDP ratios are also found to influence the size of the offset.
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  • 61
    Language: English
    Pages: 45 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.232
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The present level of ODA falls short of the amount needed to finance the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The figure of additional $50 billion per year, roughly the present total of ODA spent by DAC donors, is often quoted (e.g. by the Zedillo Report); it results from the sum of the fight against communicable diseases ($ 7-10 billion), primary schooling ($10 billion), infant and maternal mortality ($12 billion) and halving world poverty ($20 billion). The scarcity of public resources raises the importance of investing in international public goods as the cost of lifting one person out of income poverty, for example through agricultural research and global trade expansion, is estimated to be much lower than the cost of the same impact through traditional aid to poor countries. This raises important issues for donor strategies, in particular principles of aid allocation, which this paper aims to address. First, should aid be partly earmarked towards international public goods? ...
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  • 62
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.214
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The increased importance of rating agencies for emerging-market finance has brought their work to the attention of a wider group of observers — and under criticism. This paper evaluates whether the importance of ratings for developing-country finance has changed since the Asian Crisis and whether rating agencies have modified the determinants for their rating decisions. It also provides an analysis on recent suggestions by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as these are very important for gauging the future role of sovereign ratings for foreign debt finance in developing countries. While the explanatory power of conventional rating determinants has declined since the Asian crisis, recent rating performance for Argentina and Turkey can still be qualified as lagging the markets, as variables of financial-sector strength and the endogenous effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables seem to remain underemphasised in rating assessments. The market impact of sovereign ...
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  • 63
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.218
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The so-called “accession economies” preparing to enter the European Union are experiencing increased inward capital flows based upon positive interest spreads and expectations of currency appreciation. While the authorities of these countries have tried to manage these flows and to prevent unjustified appreciation of their currencies, the policy mix they may be tempted to apply can benefit from experiences elsewhere. Episodes of heavy capital inflows are well known to emerging markets and have often ended in tears. The 1990s saw three separate regional currency crises: the European crisis of 1992-93, the Latin American crisis 1994-95, and the Asian crisis 1997- 98 followed by crises in Russia and Brazil, and recently by Turkey and Argentina. Obviously, a major currency crisis every 24 months is too much for policy makers’ comfort. The virulence, speed and contagion of financial crises that have hit prospective entrants to rich-country clubs repeatedly over the past two decades have ...
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  • 64
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.201
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Concerns about corporate governance standards have often centred on emerging markets, notably after the 1997-98 Asian crisis. A series of corporate scandals have now raised investor concerns over the quality of earnings and opaque balance sheet structures in the US and other developed countries. The paper assesses the impact of higher risk on developed-country corporate assets on the prospects for private capital flows and their composition to emerging-market economies. While investors have been paying a higher premium (in terms of higher price/earning ratios and lower interest rates) for US assets partly because of the perceived superiority in the quality of their earnings reporting, one could expect a shift away from asset classes with rising risk to assets where risks were already high — emerging-market debt and equity, for example. Higher flows to emerging markets, however, can be impeded by the negative repercussion of lower asset prices in the developed markets on the real ...
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  • 65
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    ISBN: 9789264195523
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (96 p.) , ill.
    Series Statement: Development Centre Studies
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Taux de change ; Ni fixe, ni flottant
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Taux de change : Ni fixe, ni flottant
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Development
    Abstract: Don´t Fix, Don´t Float is a book about credibility, or lack thereof. It deals with questions pertaining to international financial architecture from the perspective of developing countries, emerging markets and transition economies. Should the monetary authority fix the exchange rate of the national currency? Should it instead let the currency float in foreign exchange markets? What about bands, baskets and crawls between the fix and the float corners? Answering these questions is of significance to the national economy involved and, with regard to global finance, often beyond. In the same way that there may never be a pure float, even among key currencies, an instant fix does not provide a fast lane to credibility. Credibility is earned abroad as the development process reinforces institution building in monetary, financial and budgetary matters. Indeed, rules for budgetary adjustment (such as the zero deficit in Argentina or the EU Stability and Growth Pact) are necessary for any exchange-rate regime to deliver economic growth and development. In Don´t Fix, Don´t Float, the case for intermediate regimes is made for five country groups in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Developing countries, emerging markets and transition economies, together with the OECD area, are facing the consequences of a worsening global economic outlook. In this environment, the development perspective underlying Don’t Fix, Don’t Float is clearly essential.
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  • 66
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    ISBN: 9789264295520
    Language: French
    Pages: Online-Ressource (104 p.) , ill.
    Series Statement: Études du Centre de Développement
    Series Statement: Études du Centre de développement
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Don't Fix, Don't Float
    Keywords: Finance and Investment ; Development
    Abstract: Taux de change : ni fixe, ni flottant parle de crédibilité, et de l’absence de crédibilité. Cet ouvrage traite des questions relatives à l’architecture financière internationale du point de vue des pays en développement, des marchés émergents et des économies en transition. Les autorités monétaires doivent-elles fixer le taux de change de la monnaie nationale ? Doivent-elles au contraire laisser flotter leur monnaie sur le marché du change ? Entre les solutions extrêmes - fixer ou laisser flotter - n’y a-t-il pas de place pour des marges de fluctuation, des paniers de monnaie, des parités ajustables ? Les réponses à ces questions sont bien évidemment primordiales pour les économies concernées mais, compte tenu de la globalisation des marchés financiers, leur portée va bien au-delà.Si l’institution d’un régime purement flottant peut sembler chimérique, même parmi les monnaies dominantes, la mise en place d’un régime à taux fixe n’ouvre pas nécessairement la voie rapide vers la crédibilité. C’est par un processus de développement qui renforce les institutions monétaires, financières et budgétaires qu’une économie obtient cette crédibilité vis-à-vis de l’étranger. Il est vrai que des règles d’ajustement budgétaire (telles que le déficit zéro en Argentine ou le pacte de stabilité et de croissance de l’UE) sont des conditions nécessaires pour qu’un régime de taux de change donné puisse assurer développement et croissance économique. Taux de change : ni fixe ni flottant, présente des propositions argumentées de régimes intermédiaires pour cinq groupes de pays en Afrique, en Asie et en Amérique latine.Les pays en développement, les marchés émergents et les économies en transition, de concert avec les pays de la zone OCDE, doivent faire face aux conséquences d’une conjoncture économique mondiale qui se détériore. Dans ce contexte, les questions de développement qui sous-tendent cet ouvrage acquièrent une importance capitale.
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  • 67
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    ISBN: 9789264181625
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (240 p)
    Parallel Title: Druckausg.
    RVK:
    Keywords: Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Development ; Pensionskasse ; Altersversorgung ; Kapitalmarkt ; Portfoliomanagement
    Abstract: This books explores the international aspects of pension reform, private savings and volatile capital markets and clarifies how they relate to each other. Building the case for the pension-improving benefits of global asset diversification, analysing the implications of financial reform for stimulating savings, and exploring both the benefits and risks of global capital flows to emerging markets, Pensions, Savings and Capital Flows will inform policy and academic debates on financial globalisation.
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  • 68
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 21 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.148
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The 1990s have witnessed pronounced boom-bust cycles in emerging-markets lending, culminating in the Asian financial and currency crisis of 1997-98. By examining the links between sovereign credit ratings and dollar bond yield spreads over 1989-97, this paper aims at broad empirical content for judging whether the three leading rating agencies — Moody’s, Standard ' Poor’s and Fitch IBCA — can intensify or attenuate boom-bust cycles in emerging-market lending. First, an event study exploring the market response for 30 trading days before and after rating announcements finds a significant impact of imminent upgrades and implemented downgrades for a combination of ratings by the three leading agencies, despite strong anticipation of rating events. Second, a Granger causality test, by correcting for joint determinants of ratings and yield spreads, finds that changes in sovereign ratings are mutually interdependent with changes in bond yields. These findings are based on many more ...
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  • 69
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE no.16
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. After the Great Asian Slump: Towards a Coherent Approach to Global Capital Flows
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • Le repli massif des capitaux étrangers investis en Asie — plus de 10 pour cent du PIB des pays en crise — les place devant un problème de transfert. Pour favoriser la relance en Asie, les pays créanciers devraient impliquer leurs banques domestiques dans les opérations de sauvetage financier, ce qui réduirait les aléas de moralité dans les activités de prêt du secteur privé. • Pour les pays d’Asie, la priorité est de résoudre le problème du surendettement domestique. Financer le coût budgétaire inhérent à la restructuration exige que les gouvernements des pays asiatiques élargissent la base d’imposition tout en adoptant une politique d’abondance monétaire. • Les pays en développement doivent s’assurer du bon équilibre financier des établissements bancaires et non bancaires et être plus exigeants sur la qualité des capitaux étrangers investis. Toutefois, une réglementation « à la chilienne » ne peut être efficace que dans un contexte politique approprié. • Pour évoluer vers un système financier international moins vulnérable aux crises, il importe d’agir sur les risques excessifs pris par les banques. Les Accords de Bâle induisent des distorsions favorisant les prêts bancaires à court terme qui devraient être corrigées.
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  • 70
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 40 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs no.16
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Au lendemain de la crise asiatique : Comment gérer les flux de capitaux ?
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • The unprecedented withdrawal of foreign private capital from Asia, more than 10 per cent of GDP in the crisis countries, confronts them with a transfer problem. Creditor governments should induce their home banks into financial rescue operations to reduce moral hazard in private-sector lending, and to encourage Asia’s recovery. • The resolution of Asia’s domestic debt overhang must be the overriding policy concern for Asia’s governments; paying the inevitable fiscal cost in Asia’s restructuring process requires tax-base broadening, supported by easy monetary policy. • Progress towards a less crisis-prone international financial system will hinge on how to correct the excessive risk taking by banks. Regulatory distortions through the Basle Accord which bias bank lending towards the short term should be corrected. • Developing countries should strengthen bank and non-bank balance sheets and raise the quality of inflows; Chile-type regulatory measures, however, will only be effective in an appropriate policy context.
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  • 71
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 26 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.136
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia have hit countries with strong macroeconomic fundamentals but weak domestic financial systems. Private capital flows, attracted by disorderly financial liberalisation and exchange rate pegs, reversed abruptly when financial-sector weaknesses became apparent. Often, domestic financial systems have proved too weak a conduit for heavy capital inflows, resulting in declining credit quality and financial vulnerability to speculative currency attacks. Developing countries are therefore advised to pay close attention to indicators of financial vulnerability, in particular to short-term debt levels as a fraction of official foreign exchange reserves, as well as to currency and maturity mismatches in private-sector balance sheets. This paper points to the avenues that can be pursued to avoid a rise in the vulnerability indicators above critical levels ... Some of these avenues are uncontroversial, but deceptively hard to implement. Good ...
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  • 72
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.132
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Large current account deficits are often assumed to play an important role in the propagation of financial crises in emerging markets in receipt of heavy private capital inflows. This paper reaches some major conclusions. First, the Lawson Doctrine — according to which current account deficits that result from a shift in private-sector behaviour should not be a public policy concern — has been discredited by recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia. Second, it is possible to define the size of current account deficits that should be sustainable in the long run. Third, the intertemporal approach to the current account does not provide a reliable benchmark to define when deficits become “excessive”. Fourth, large external deficits should be resisted if unsustainable currency appreciation, excessive risk-taking in the banking system and a sharp drop in private savings are seen to coincide ...
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  • 73
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 53 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.137
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: How and to what extent can a high degree of global financial integration help the fast-ageing OECD benefit from the delayed ageing process in the non-OECD area? The question is being raised with increasing urgency as it is slowly understood that even fully funded pension schemes will not escape demographic pressures in the absence of considerable capital flows between the ageing OECD and the younger part of the world. A simulation with a two-region neo-classical economic-demographic model reaches two basic conclusions of importance to policy makers. First, capital flows from fast-ageing, mostly OECD countries to slowly ageing, mostly developing countries can only slightly attenuate, but not reverse, the consequences of an ageing population on falling returns to capital. Second, significant distributional effects are likely to arise from the interaction of population ageing and financial integration. Global financial integration benefits elderly lifetime savers, but hurts elderly ...
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  • 74
    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.120
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The paper evaluates the economics of foreign investment regulation for pension funds, with a focus on developing countries, where fully-funded pension systems are being started de novo. The analysis produces three observations. First, the benefits of global portfolio diversification apply particularly to developing-country pension assets because the volatility of asset returns is high while the risk tolerance of pensioners is low. Second, restrictions of foreign investment by domestic pension funds can hardly be justified on grounds of financial-development arguments: cross-country evidence which little support for the claim that the accumulation of pension assets would provide strong externalities for financial development. Moreover, the home bias generally observed in pension fund investment should translate into sufficient potential demand for domestic financial assets so as to deepen markets and develop the institutional infrastructure. Third, a case for initial localisation ...
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  • 75
    Language: English
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.130
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: This paper provides statistically significant international evidence on the interaction between funded pensions and aggregate savings, after controlling for country-specific effects and for other saving determinants that have typically been identified in earlier cross-country studies. Using panel data for eleven countries (both OECD and non-OECD), this study goes beyond earlier work which has been based on individual country studies only (which have suffered from a small number of degrees of freedom). Building several proxies of pension wealth based on internationally comparable pension fund and life insurance data, the paper estimates the relationship between aggregate saving rates and pension wealth using ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares over the 1982-93 period. The empirical analysis supports the predictions of a simple two-period life-cycle saving model that incorporates tax treatment of pension returns, population heterogeneity, capital market imperfection and ...
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  • 76
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.124
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: In principle, the sovereign credit rating industry could help mitigate the congestion externalities common to world capital markets that arise from the failure of market participants to internalise the social cost of external borrowings. This would require that modifications in ratings on government bonds convey new information to market participants, with changes in credit ratings leading to changes in country risk premia. Using panel data analysis and event studies this paper presents econometric evidence that changes in credit rating have a significant impact on international financial markets. In line with earlier studies, our event study finds a highly significant announcement effect when emerging-market sovereign bonds are put on review with negative outlook. Our findings imply that the sovereign rating industry has the potential to help dampen excessive private capital inflows into the emerging markets with negative rating announcements ...
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  • 77
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs no.9
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Réorienter les fonds de retraite vers les marchés émergents
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • The rapid ageing of populations in the rich economies can be expected to stimulate strong growth in private funded pensions, providing a massive potential of foreign finance for developing countries. • Pension managers can reap big diversification benefits by investing on the emerging stock markets of the younger economies, benefits which are largely unexploited so far. • The authorities in OECD countries should consider removing regulatory constraints imposed on pension assets that deprive retirees from the pension-improving benefits of global diversification. • Policy makers in developing countries should design policies that reassure institutional investors on default risk and stock market illiquidity, if they want to tap a higher share of OECD pension assets.
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  • 78
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE no.9
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Pension Fund Investment from Ageing to Emerging Markets
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • Le vieillissement rapide des populations dans les pays riches va sans doute entraîner une forte croissance des régimes de retraite privés par capitalisation, lesquels pourraient offrir d’énormes moyens de financement aux pays en développement. • Les gestionnaires des fonds de retraite peuvent recueillir d’importants avantages de diversification en investissant sur les marchés boursiers émergents des jeunes économies ; mais ces avantages restent pratiquement inexploités. • Les pays de l’OCDE devraient envisager de supprimer les contraintes réglementaires qui pèsent sur les actifs des fonds de retraite et qui privent les retraités des bénéfices résultant d’une diversification à l’échelle mondiale. • S’ils veulent mobiliser une plus grande partie des actifs des fonds de retraite des pays de l’OCDE, les pays en développement doivent adopter des politiques propres à rassurer les investisseurs institutionnels au sujet des risques de défaillance et d’illiquidité des marchés boursiers.
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  • 79
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 36 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.98
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: The paper discusses the pros and cons of liberalising foreign investment of pension assets in developing countries, with particular reference to Chile. The positive part of the paper examines the impact on macroeconomic policy of a small country's opening its equity market for investment; the investment strategies of, and the restrictions imposed upon, privately-managed pension funds; and the specific British experience with portfolio diversification after the dismantling of capital controls in 1979. The normative part, while finding only a weak case for regulating foreign pension investment (loss of savings, domestic capital markets), discusses various techniques of such regulation ...
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  • 80
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 28 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs no.4
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Vers la liberté des mouvements de capitaux
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: • Advanced developing countries are increasingly encouraged to remove existing capital controls, but mixed experiences with capital account opening caution that reform must be carefully designed to increase efficiency and growth without compromising stability • A gradual dismantling of capital controls is recommended, based on progress made in tax reform, exchange rate management, enforcement of bank competition and supervision, and solving domestic banks' bad-loan problems
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  • 81
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: French
    Pages: 29 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE no.4
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Towards Capital Account Convertibility
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: . Les pays en développement les plus avancés sont incités de façon toujours pressante à supprimer les contrôles des mouvements de capitaux ; mais les expériences diverses de libéralisation montrent que les réformes doivent être élaborées avec soin pour améliorer l'efficacité économique et la croissance sans compromettre la stabilité. . Il est recommandé de procéder à une suppression graduelle de ces contrôles en prenant appui sur le progrès des réformes fiscales, la gestion du taux de change, le renforcement de la concurrence, et de la surveillance du système bancaire et la résolution des problèmes internes posés par les créances bancaires douteuses.
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  • 82
    Language: English
    Pages: 25 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.42
    Keywords: Development ; Chinese Taipei ; Korea, Republic of
    Abstract: How open are the capital accounts in Korea and Taiwan? Has there been a trend towards more financial openness during the 1980s? This paper aims at answering both questions by estimating a model of interest determination first outlined by Edwards and Khan, in an extension suggested by Haque and Montiel. Use is made of a time-varying parameter estimation based on the Kalman filter technique, instead of the usual constant parameter estimation. The findings indicate a low degree of capital mobility for both Korea and Taiwan, and no trend towards more financial openness (except recently in Taiwan's interbank market). The dismantling of capital controls and of internal financial restrictions is thus likely to impose an important loss of monetary autonomy in both countries ...
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  • 83
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.12
    Keywords: Development ; Korea, Republic of ; Mexico
    Abstract: The variety of channels through which devaluation of the exchange rate impacts on real tax receipts, calls for empirical clarification. This paper should be seen as a first attempt towards empirical evidence. It establishes the causal relationships between the real exchange rate and real tax receipts. A causality test rejects the hypothesis of unidirectional causality running from taxes to the exchange rate. The causal inferences from the Sims test allow to use the real exchange rate as an exogenous determinant in a simple simultaneous equation model. The model endogenises tax yields and tax bases to allow for a test of the significance and relevance of the exchange rate to explain variations in real tax receipts. An important insight results from the distinction of the direct (price) effect and indirect (output) effect of changes in the real exchange rate on tax receipts. A double-logarithmic version of the model with (seasonally adjusted) quarterly data is estimated for Korea and ...
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  • 84
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 33 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Development Centre Working Papers no.32
    Keywords: Development
    Abstract: Investment in most heavily indebted countries has been weak since 1982. The widely accepted debt overhang proposition interprets the investment drop as a moral hazard problem: a heavy debt burden raises the incentive to consume, because the marginal benefit of investment would go to the creditor. This paper develops several hypotheses on optimal reactions of a credit-constrained debtor country on an increase in debt, on variations in the credit constraint, on changes in interest rates, and contrasts these with the predictions stemming from the debt overhang proposition. Empirical specifications of conventional investment functions and consumption functions (along the Permanent Income Hypothesis) lead to reject the debt overhang proposition, but find that the switch from positive to negative external transfers to the debtor countries is an important explanation for their investment drop. The major policy conclusion is that the 1989 shift in international debt management (the Brady ...
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