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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (10)
  • 2010-2014  (10)
  • Röhn, Oliver  (10)
  • Economics  (10)
  • Politik
  • Science Philosophy
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Reducing macroeconomic imbalances in Turkey (2014)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1160
    Keywords: Finanzpolitik ; Wettbewerb ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; Leistungsbilanz ; Geldpolitik ; Sparen ; Türkei ; Economics ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Turkey recovered swiftly from the global financial crisis but sizeable macroeconomic imbalances arose in the process. High consumer price inflation and a wide current account deficit are sources of vulnerability. Even though below-potential growth helps rebalancing and disinflation, these imbalances endure. The financial sector still looks resilient thanks to buffers built up mainly prior to the financial crisis. However, private sector balance sheet risks have gained prominence as leverage increased. Macroeconomic and structural policy levers need to steer a passage between robust but externally unsustainable growth and externally viable but low growth. Monetary policy needs to bring inflation and inflation expectations closer to target. Macroprudential policies could more systematically lean against capital inflows and credit cycles to reduce private sector balance sheet vulnerabilities. The fiscal stance is broadly appropriate, but compliance with a multi-year general government spending ceiling would help avoid pro-cyclical loosening in case of revenue surprises and help boost domestic saving. Overall, policies should help reduce the risk of disruptions in capital flows as monetary policy stimulus is being withdrawn in the United States.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jxx055pjf0x-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fostering inclusive growth in Turkey by promoting structural change in the business sector (2014)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1161
    Keywords: Unternehmensbesteuerung ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Informelle Wirtschaft ; Produktivität ; Strukturwandel ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Türkei ; Economics ; Industry and Services ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Turkey’s business sector dynamism has underpinned broad-based and inclusive growth in the 2000s. However, the business sector is highly segmented, with a relatively small core of modern high-productivity corporations, and myriad small, less formal and low-productivity entities. This hampers efficient resource allocation and tends to entrench social inequalities. It also makes it difficult to build on-the-job human capital for the large number of low-skilled. This segmentation needs to be overcome to raise productivity in the informal, low-skill and low-productivity sector, and to facilitate resource transfers from low to higher productivity businesses. This ought to be achieved by aligning Turkey’s formal regulatory and tax framework with OECD best practice, rather than through “second-best” arrangements where noncompliance with rules co-exists with selective subsidies to parts of the formal sector. Labour market and business taxation reforms are particularly important to enable all categories of enterprises to operate flexibly on a rule-based, level playing field and to achieve productivity enhancing and socially inclusive restructuring.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jxx0554v07c-en
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Austria's well-being goes beyond GDP (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (58 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1079
    Keywords: Familie ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Einwanderung ; Umweltpolitik ; Verkehrsinfrastruktur ; Gesundheit ; Suburbanisierung ; Österreich ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Austria ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Austria enjoys strong material well-being and high quality of life. Steady convergence with top GDP per capita levels translated into decisive improvements in household disposable incomes while significant redistribution has ensured low income inequality and poverty. This has been combined with gains in leisure time, especially time spent in retirement, low unemployment, high environmental standards, rising life expectancy, a well-functioning social support network and high subjective well-being. This performance was achieved with a unique combination of supportive conditions for a dynamic business sector, priority for family based care, a wide supply of public services, and a well-functioning social partnership. Particularly remarkable for a small open economy has been the degree of stability, which may have contributed to Austria’s high quality of life. However, a number of weaknesses also exist. Older, unskilled and in particular people with migrant background, have lower labour market attachments. Outcomes in education and health care are subject to inequalities. Family services are still mainly carried out by women, who have closed the gap in education attainment with men but face tensions between work and family responsibilities and a high wage gap. The gaps experienced by people with migrant background are in several dimensions larger than in the average OECD country. This Working Paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Survey of Austria (http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/austria-2013.htm).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k422133hjnv-en
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Responding to key wellbeing challenges in Austria (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 S.) , graph. Darst., Kt.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1080
    Keywords: Familie ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Einwanderung ; Umweltpolitik ; Verkehrsinfrastruktur ; Gesundheit ; Suburbanisierung ; Österreich ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Austria ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Important challenges for the future of Austrian well-being arise from demographic and environmental trends. The ageing of the population calls for a fair balance between life-time pension contributions and entitlements, drawing on the recent pension reform. Such progress will allow Austrians to make more informed choices between the length of their work and contribution periods and retirement length and income according to their preferences, without threatening fiscal sustainability. With female labour force participation rising, family policies should help reconcile equality of opportunity within families by promoting the availability, affordability and quality of support services. A growing share of immigrant groups with low human capital calls for remedial policies to preserve social cohesion. Environmental pressures arise from urban sprawl and the strong expansion of road transport. Turning around these trends will require more appropriate pricing of the externalities and better regional development policies to foster denser settlements that are well connected to public transport. This entails a need to strengthen coordination between different government layers and better integration of regional development with transport and housing policies. This Working Paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Survey of Austria (http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/austria-2013.htm).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k42210gg9g5-en
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  • 5
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    Structural reforms to boost Turkey's long-term growth (2012)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst., Kt.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 987
    Keywords: Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Türkei ; Economics ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Turkey can achieve strong sustainable growth and job creation but further reforms in the labour market, education and product markets are required for such gains to materialise. In recent years, growth has been largely driven by the industrial catch-up of Anatolian regions, although the Marmara area in the West has also been very dynamic. In the process, labour force participation has started to rise anew, but around one third of new low-skilled jobs have been created in the informal sector. Sustaining vigorous growth over the longer run therefore requires pushing ahead with a number of structural reforms. First, Turkey’s rigid labour market regulation needs to evolve, so as to encourage job creation in the formal sector. Second, further progress with education reform, from pre-school all the way to the tertiary level and vocational training, is needed to boost growth and bring about employment gains in the formal sector. Third, implementing product market reforms, notably in network industries, would unleash productivity gains in those sectors and be a boost to the rest of the economy. A set of alternative growth scenarios through 2030 illustrates how progress on these various fronts can deliver lasting improvements in living standards. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k92smv7cnjl-en
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  • 6
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    Tackling Turkey's external and domestic macroeconomic imbalances (2012)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 986
    Keywords: Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Türkei ; Economics ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Effective macroeconomic and structural policies helped Turkey bounce back quickly and strongly from the global crisis, with annual growth averaging close to 9% over 2010-11. However, the current account deficit widened to around 10% of GDP in 2011 and consumer price inflation rose to over 10%. The external deficit, which is far too large for comfort, is a source of vulnerability. So is high inflation, even if it partly reflects transient factors. These imbalances signal competitiveness problems and a dearth of domestic saving. They need to be addressed using both macroeconomic and structural policy levers. Monetary policy has recently tried to reduce the volatility of capital flows but inflation has been high and volatile. The inflation target needs to be given greater prominence. The fiscal stance remains broadly appropriate but could be tighter, if warranted, to complement monetary restraint and help keep the real exchange rate on a sustainable path. More balanced growth through strengthened competitiveness and greater private saving calls inter alia for increased labour force participation, accelerated formalisation, stronger productivity growth, improvements in financial literacy and a more attractive menu of saving instruments. Improvements in the business environment would spur foreign direct investment, making for healthier funding of the external gap. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k92smvqbb8v-en
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  • 7
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    Current account benchmarks for Turkey (2012)
    Paris : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 988
    Keywords: Außenwirtschaftliches Gleichgewicht ; Leistungsbilanz ; Türkei ; Economics ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Turkey’s current account deficit widened to almost 10% of GDP in 2011 and has been narrowing only gradually since. An important question is to what extent Turkey’s current account deficit is excessive. To explore this issue, one needs to establish benchmarks. In this paper current account benchmarks are derived using the external sustainability as well as the macroeconomic balance approach. However, the standard macroeconomic balance approach ignores the uncertainty inherent in the model selection process given the relatively large number of possible determinants of current account balances. This paper therefore extends the macroeconomic balance approach to account for model uncertainty by using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques. Results from both approaches suggest that current account benchmarks for the current account deficit lie in the range of 3% to 5½ per cent of GDP, which is broadly in line with previous estimates but substantially below recent current account deficit levels. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k92smtqp9vk-en
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  • 8
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    Product Market Regulation : Extending the Analysis Beyond OECD Countries (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 51 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.799
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In this paper the recently updated product market regulation (PMR) indicators are extended to a larger set of countries including several non-OECD members. It investigates regulatory patterns in this extended set of countries as compared to the OECD countries and analyses the link between regulation and growth. On average, regulation is more restrictive of competition in non-member countries than in the OECD area. However, there exists considerable heterogeneity within this country grouping as concerns the level of the regulatory stance and its composition as well as the potential past evolution of regulatory processes. Furthermore, growth regressions provide evidence that less restrictive product market regulation is conducive to growth. An improvement of ½ index points of barriers to entrepreneurship would translate into approximately a 0.4% higher average annual rate of GDP per capita growth. However, the results also suggest that for countries that are less advanced, the potential growth benefits of enhancing product market competition may be impaired by other structural weaknesses. In particular, some restrictions of foreign trade and investment might be beneficial for growth in early stages of development.
    DOI: 10.1787/5km68g3d1xzn-en
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  • 9
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    Counter-cyclical Economic Policy (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 103 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.760
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: What changes are needed to make counter-cyclical economic policy more effective in the aftermath of the recent crisis? An important lesson from the severity of the recent recession is that policy in various areas will have to be more prudent during upswings and to build in greater safety margins to be able to react to large adverse shocks. In the period leading up to the crisis, cycles became more synchronised, while asset prices became more volatile. Recent events also underline the difficulties encountered in detecting and reacting to asset price misalignments. The confluence of the turn in asset prices, financial market crisis and slump in trade challenged the ability of counter-cyclical policies to cope with the severe downturn, although experience reveals that countries where the fiscal position was sound and inflation under control were better able to cushion the shocks. Furthermore, robust micro-prudential regulation can help the financial sector withstand shocks. In this light, existing policies should be strengthened to ensure that there is room for manoeuvre going into a downturn. In order to deal with similar shocks in the future, macroeconomic and financial sector policies should consider precautionary policy settings and macro-prudential regulation to address systemic threats to stability.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfw36tj97h-en
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  • 10
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    New Evidence on the Private Saving Offset and Ricardian Equivalence (2010)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 36 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.762
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The ability of discretionary fiscal policy to affect economic activity following shocks depends on how private agents react. This paper re-investigates the extent of possible offsetting private saving behaviour to fiscal policy changes. The results suggest that the private saving offset is around 40% on average across countries in both the short and the long term, which is somewhat lower than found in prior research. However, the estimates vary considerably across countries. Disaggregate analyses of the budget components shows that changes in current revenues are almost fully offset, whereas offsets to current spending are on average around one third to one half depending on the sample. There is no offset for public investment, making it the most potent policy tool. Saving offsets are stronger the higher the level of government debt consistent with the expectation that snowballing debt may ultimately lead to higher taxation. They are also stronger the better developed financial markets are, pointing to the importance of liquidity constraints for the effectiveness of policy.
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmft7qb5kq3-en
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