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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (9)
  • Mattoo, Aaditya  (6)
  • Soloaga, Isidro  (3)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (9)
  • Free Trade  (9)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Regulatory Cooperation, Aid For Trade And The General Agreement On Trade In Services (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hoekman, Bernard Regulatory Cooperation, Aid For Trade And The General Agreement On Trade In Services
    Keywords: Banks and Banking Reform ; Best Market ; Business Practice ; Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Free Trade ; Growth Rate ; International Cooperation ; International Economics & Trade ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Regulators ; Technological Change ; Trade and Services ; World Trade ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Best Market ; Business Practice ; Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Free Trade ; Growth Rate ; International Cooperation ; International Economics & Trade ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Regulators ; Technological Change ; Trade and Services ; World Trade ; Banks and Banking Reform ; Best Market ; Business Practice ; Developing Countries ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Free Trade ; Growth Rate ; International Cooperation ; International Economics & Trade ; Liberalization ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Regulators ; Technological Change ; Trade and Services ; World Trade
    Abstract: This paper discusses what could be done to expand services trade and investment through a multilateral agreement in the World Trade Organization. A distinction is made between market access liberalization and the regulatory preconditions for benefiting from market opening. The authors argue that prospects for multilateral services liberalization would be enhanced by making national treatment the objective of World Trade Organization services negotiations, thereby clarifying the scope of World Trade Organization commitments for regulators. Moreover, liberalization by smaller and poorer members of the World Trade Organization would be facilitated by complementary actions to strengthen regulatory capacity. If pursued as part of the operationalization of the World Trade Organization's 2006 Aid for Trade taskforce report, the World Trade Organization could become more relevant in promoting not just services liberalization but, more importantly, domestic reforms of services policies
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Currency Undervaluation And Sovereign Wealth Funds : A New Role For The World Trade Organization (2008)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (31 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Currency Undervaluation And Sovereign Wealth Funds
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Enforcement ; Exchange ; Exchange rate ; Exchange rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Government action ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Subsidies ; Trade Law ; World trade ; Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Enforcement ; Exchange ; Exchange rate ; Exchange rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Government action ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Subsidies ; Trade Law ; World trade ; Access to Finance ; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Enforcement ; Exchange ; Exchange rate ; Exchange rates ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Government action ; Interest ; International Economics & Trade ; Investments ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Private Sector Development ; Subsidies ; Trade Law ; World trade
    Abstract: Two aspects of global imbalances - undervalued exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds - require a multilateral response. For reasons of inadequate leverage and eroding legitimacy, the International Monetary Fund has not been effective in dealing with undervalued exchange rates. This paper proposes new rules in the World Trade Organization to discipline cases of significant undervaluation that are clearly attributable to government action. The rationale for WTO involvement is that there are large trade consequences of undervalued exchange rates, which act as both import tariffs and export subsidies, and that the WTO's enforcement mechanism is credible and effective. The World Trade Organization would not be involved in exchange rate management, and would not displace the International Monetary Fund. Rather, the authors suggest ways to harness the comparative advantage of the two institutions, with the International Monetary Fund providing the essential technical expertise in the World Trade Organization's enforcement process. There is a bargain to be struck between countries with sovereign wealth funds, which want secure and liberal access for their capital, and capital-importing countries, which have concerns about the objectives and operations of sovereign wealth funds. The World Trade Organization is the natural place to strike this bargain. Its General Agreement on Trade in Services, already covers investments by sovereign wealth funds, and other agreements offer a precedent for designing disciplines for these funds. Placing exchange rates and sovereign wealth funds on the trade negotiating agenda may help revive the Doha Round by rekindling the interest of a wide variety of groups
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Growth of China And India In World Trade : Opportunity Or Threat For Latin America And The Caribbean? (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (25 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Lederman, Daniel The Growth of China And India In World Trade
    Keywords: Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy ; Bilateral trade ; Competitiveness ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Theory and Research ; Economic size ; Export growth ; Exports ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; GDP ; Growth rate ; International Economics & Trade ; International trade ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Public Sector Development ; Substitution effect ; Telecommunications ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India's markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004. Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlation between Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and Latin American and Caribbean trade with third markets. Both analyses rely on the gravity model of international trade. Econometric estimations that control for the systematic correlation between expected bilateral trade volumes and the size of their regression errors, as well as importer and exporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistent estimates of the relevant parameters for different groups of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results suggest that the growth of the two Asian markets has produced large opportunities for Latin American and Caribbean exporters, which nevertheless have not been fully exploited. The evidence concerning the effects of Chinese and Indian trade with third markets is not robust, but there is little evidence of negative effects on Latin American and Caribbean exports of non-fuel merchandise. In general, China's and to a large extent India's growing presence in world trade has been good news for Latin America and the Caribbean, but some of the potential benefits remain unexploited
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Regional Agreements and Trade in Services (2002)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Regional Agreements and Trade in Services
    Keywords: Benefits ; Choice ; Competition ; Competitive Advantage ; Competitive Markets ; Consumer Choice ; Consumers ; Costs ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; National Income ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Corruption ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade and Services ; Benefits ; Choice ; Competition ; Competitive Advantage ; Competitive Markets ; Consumer Choice ; Consumers ; Costs ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; National Income ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Corruption ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade and Services ; Benefits ; Choice ; Competition ; Competitive Advantage ; Competitive Markets ; Consumer Choice ; Consumers ; Costs ; Debt Markets ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Goods ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets ; Markets and Market Access ; National Income ; Private Sector Development ; Production ; Public Sector Corruption ; Public Sector Development ; Trade Law ; Trade and Regional Integration ; Trade and Services
    Abstract: Every major regional trade agreement now has a services dimension. Is trade in services so different that there is need to modify the conclusions on preferential agreements pertaining to goods reached so far? Mattoo and Fink first examine the implications of unilateral policy choices in a particular services market. They then explore the economics of international cooperation and identify the circumstances in which a country is more likely to benefit from cooperation in a regional rather than multilateral forum. This paper--a product of Trade, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the implications of liberalizing trade in services. The authors may be contacted at amattooworldbank.org or cfink@worldbank.org
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Reciprocity across Modes of Supply in the World Trade Organization : A Negotiating Formula (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (24 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Reciprocity across Modes of Supply in the World Trade Organization
    Keywords: Agreement On Trade ; Border Trade ; Comparative Advantage ; Concessions ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Foreign Labor ; Foreign Markets ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Reciprocal Reduction ; Reciprocity ; Tariff ; Tariff Reduction ; Terms Of Trade ; Terms Of Trade Effects ; Trade Effect ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Services ; Volume Of Trade ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Agreement On Trade ; Border Trade ; Comparative Advantage ; Concessions ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Foreign Labor ; Foreign Markets ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Reciprocal Reduction ; Reciprocity ; Tariff ; Tariff Reduction ; Terms Of Trade ; Terms Of Trade Effects ; Trade Effect ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Trade and Services ; Volume Of Trade ; Welfare Gains ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: June 2000 - If negotiations on trade in services at the World Trade Organization are to advance liberalization beyond levels undertaken unilaterally and lead to more balanced outcomes, reciprocity must play a greater role in negotiations. This may be facilitated by the use of negotiating rules that establish credible links across sectors and modes of delivery. Negotiations on trade in services at the World Trade Organization (WTO) have so far produced little liberalization beyond levels countries have undertaken unilaterally. One reason: limited application of the traditional negotiating principle of reciprocity. In particular, participants have failed to exploit the scope of the services agreement (GATS) for the exchange of market-access concessions across different modes of supply - cross-border delivery and the movement of capital and workers. Using the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, Mattoo and Olarreaga propose a negotiating formula that generalizes the fundamental WTO principle of reciprocity to include alternative modes of delivery. Adoption of this formula as a basis for negotiations could bring greater commitments to liberalization on all modes of delivery, producing substantial gains in global welfare and more balanced outcomes. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to improve trade policy in goods and services. The authors may be contacted at amattooworldbank.org or molarreaga@worldbank.org
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    What's Behind Mercosur's Common External Tariff? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (48 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Soloaga, Isidro What's Behind Mercosur's Common External Tariff?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Tariff ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Prices ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Multilateral System ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Share Of World Exports ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Structures ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Effects ; Trade Externalities ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Prices ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Domestic Market ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; External Tariff ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; International Economics & Trade ; International Market ; International Markets ; International Prices ; International Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Markets and Market Access ; Multilateral System ; Political Economy ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Share Of World Exports ; Tariff Data ; Tariff Levels ; Tariff Structures ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Trade ; Trade Effects ; Trade Externalities ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; World Prices
    Abstract: Most researchers focus on the political economy (interest group pressures) approach to analyzing why customs unions are formed, but terms-of-trade effects were also important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. - The theoretical literature on trade follows two different approaches to explaining the endogenous formation of customs unions: (1) The terms-of-trade approach, in which integrating partners are willing to exploit terms-of-trade effects. Using the terms-of-trade approach, one concludes that tariffs on imports from the rest of the world should increase after the formation of a regional bloc, because the market power of the region increases and terms-of-trade externalities can be internalized in the custom union's common external tariff. As the union forms, the domestic market gets larger and members' international market power increases. (2) The interest group pressures (political economy) approach, in which, for example, the customs union may offer the potential for exchanging markets or protection within the enlarged market. Using this approach, one would usually conclude that tariffs for the rest of the world decline after the custom union's formation - a rationale related to free-rider effects in larger lobbying groups. It is important to recognize the forces behind the formation of customs unions. Most researchers have focused on the second approach and neglected terms of trade as a possible explanatory variable. Both rationales explain a significant share of tariff information. Results, write Olarreaga, Soloaga, and Winters, suggest that both forces were important in formation of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (Mercosur). Terms-of-trade effects account for between 6 percent and 28 percent of the explained variation in the structure of protection. There is also evidence that the terms-of-trade externalities among Mercosur's members have been internalized in the common external tariff. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the political economy of trade protection. Marcelo Olarreaga may be contacted at molarreagaworldbank.org
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Should Credit Be Given for Autonomous Liberalization in Multilateral Trade Negotiations? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (38 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Should Credit Be Given for Autonomous Liberalization in Multilateral Trade Negotiations?
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dispute Settlement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Negotiations ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Tariff ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Terms Of Trade Loss ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Unilateral Reduction ; Unilateral Tariff Reduction ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Currency ; Debt Markets ; Dispute Settlement ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Insurance and Risk Mitigation ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade and Trade Rules ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Multilateral Liberalization ; Multilateral Negotiations ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Reciprocal Concessions ; Tariff ; Tariff Reductions ; Tariff Schedule ; Tariffs ; Terms Of Trade ; Terms Of Trade Loss ; Trade ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Negotiations ; Trade Policy ; Trade Policy ; Unilateral Liberalization ; Unilateral Reduction ; Unilateral Tariff Reduction ; World Trade ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: June 2000 - As each new round of multilateral trade negotiations approaches, there is a demand for a negotiating rule that would give credit for previous unilateral liberalization. The feasibility and desirability of such a rule depend on when it is instituted. As each new round of multilateral trade negotiations approaches, there is a demand for a negotiating rule that would give credit for autonomous (unilateral) liberalization. Mattoo and Olarreaga show that the feasibility and desirability of such a rule depend on when it is instituted. A credit rule established at the beginning of a round of negotiations has a primarily distributional effect, favoring those who have already undertaken liberalization. Implementing such a rule would depend on the generosity of those who have not liberalized. The authors propose instead establishing a credit rule at the end of a round of negotiations, which creates an ex ante assurance that any unilateral liberalization will receive credit in the next round. Such a rule would help induce or enhance liberalization in some countries between negotiating rounds by reducing the gains from retaining protection as negotiating currency. More strikingly, it could also lead to deeper levels of multilateral liberalization and induce other countries to go further than they would in the absence of a rule. Most important, such an ex ante rule would not rely on altruism to be generally acceptable. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to improve trade policy in goods and services. The authors may be contacted at amattooworldbank.org or molarreaga@worldbank.org
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Trade Policies for Electronic Commerce (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (32 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Mattoo, Aaditya Trade Policies for Electronic Commerce
    Keywords: Commodities ; Cross-Border Trade ; Customs ; Customs Duties ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Electronic Commerce ; Emerging Markets ; European Union ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Services ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Importing Country ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; National Treatment ; Preferential Trading Arrangements ; Preferential Treatment ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Recourse ; Tariff Reductions ; Trade ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Trade and Services ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics ; World Trade Organization ; Commodities ; Cross-Border Trade ; Customs ; Customs Duties ; Debt Markets ; E-Business ; Economic Theory and Research ; Electronic Commerce ; Emerging Markets ; European Union ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Services ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Importing Country ; International Economics & Trade ; International Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Market Access ; National Treatment ; Preferential Trading Arrangements ; Preferential Treatment ; Private Sector Development ; Public Sector Development ; Recourse ; Tariff Reductions ; Trade ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Law ; Trade Policies ; Trade Policy ; Trade Regime ; Trade and Services ; Transport ; Transport and Trade Logistics ; World Trade Organization
    Abstract: June 2000 - Members of the World Trade Organization have decided provisionally to exempt electronic delivery of products from customs duties. There is growing support for the decision to be made permanent. Is this desirable? Some countries in the World Trade Organization initially opposed WTO's decision to exempt electronic delivery of products from customs duties, out of concern for the revenue consequences. Others supported the decision as a means of securing open trading conditions. Mattoo and Schuknecht argue that neither the inhibitions nor the enthusiasm are fully justified. First, even if all delivery of digitizable media products moved online - an unlikely prospect - the revenue loss for most countries would be small. More important, however, the prohibition of customs duties does not ensure continued open access for electronically delivered products and may even prompt recourse to inferior instruments of protection. Barrier-free electronic commerce would be more effectively secured by deepening and widening the limited cross-border trade commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and by clarifying and strengthening certain GATS disciplines. This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to improve trade policy for goods and services. It is part of a larger project on trade in services supported in part by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development. Aaditya Mattoo may be contacted at amattooworldbank.org
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade? (1999)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (30 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Soloaga, Isidro How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade?
    Keywords: Andean Pact ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Extra-Bloc Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Geographical Patterns Of Trade ; Gravity Equation ; Gravity Model ; Gravity Models ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Patterns Of Trade ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Preferential Trade Area ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Trade ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Effects ; Trade Flows ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy ; Andean Pact ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Economic Policy ; Economic Theory and Research ; Exports ; Extra-Bloc Trade ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Free Trade ; Free Trade ; Free Trade Area ; Geographical Patterns Of Trade ; Gravity Equation ; Gravity Model ; Gravity Models ; International Economics & Trade ; Law and Development ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Patterns Of Trade ; Preferential Trade ; Preferential Trade Agreements ; Preferential Trade Area ; Public Sector Development ; Regionalism ; Trade ; Trade Diversion ; Trade Effects ; Trade Flows ; Trade Law ; Trade Liberalization ; Trade Policy
    Abstract: August 1999 - The results of a modified gravity model suggest that the new wave of regionalism has not boosted intra-bloc trading significantly. Trade liberalization in Latin America did have a positive impact on the imports of bloc members, although MERCOSUR's exports did poorly over the mid-1990s. Soloaga and Winters apply a gravity model to data on annual nonfuel imports for 58 countries for the years 1980-96, to quantify the effects on trade of recently created or revamped preferential trade agreements (PTAs). They modify the usual gravity equation to identify the separate effects of PTAs on intra-bloc trade, members' total imports, and members' total exports. They also formally test the significance of changes in the estimated coefficients before and after the blocs' formation. Their estimates give no indication that the new wave of regionalism boosted intra-bloc trade significantly. They found convincing evidence of trade diversion only for the European Union and the European Free Trade Association. For the same blocs they also observed export diversion, which would be consistent with these blocs' imposing a welfare cost on the rest of the world. Trade liberalization efforts in Latin America have had a positive impact on the imports of bloc members (Andean Group, Central American Common Market, Latin American Integration Association, and MERCOSUR). Increasing propensities to export generally accompanied increasing propensities to import, suggesting that general trade liberalization had a strong effect. The exception was MERCOSUR, for which import and export propensities displayed opposite movements, with exports performing worse than expected over the mid-1990s. Although MERCOSUR members have undoubtedly liberalized since the mid-1980s, these results suggest that their trade performance has been influenced more by competitiveness than by trade policy. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the effects of regional integration. The authors may be contacted at isoloagaworldbank.org or l.a.winters@sussex.ac.uk
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