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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (8)
  • Deininger, Klaus  (3)
  • Reynal-Querol, Marta  (3)
  • Hegre, Havard  (2)
  • Washington, D.C : The World Bank  (8)
  • Conflict and Development  (8)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact of the Russian Invasion on Ukrainian Farmers' Productivity, Rural Welfare, and Food Security (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Deininger, Klaus Impact of the Russian Invasion on Ukrainian Farmers' Productivity, Rural Welfare, and Food Security
    Keywords: Agricultural Production ; Agriculture ; Armed Conflict Impact on Agriculture ; Conflict and Development ; Credit Markets ; Farm Profitability ; Food Security ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Post-Conflict Agricultural Reconstruction ; Rural Impact of War ; Rural Welfare
    Abstract: Data from 2,251 small and medium-size farms for 2021 and 2022 show that area reductions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine remained limited. However, worsening terms of trade reduced farm profitability, implying that 46 percent of farms had a negative cash flow and 54 percent (67 percent in the 50-120 hectare group) were credit constrained in 2022, implying that longer term effects may be more adverse. Total factor productivity varies significantly across size groups but is not significantly different between formal and informal farms in the same size group. This suggests that limited transferability of land use rights that are disproportionately used by smaller farms may be one reason for low productivity. Improving transferability of land, digital access to markets, and mortgage lending could thus trigger investment and growth in higher value products by small and medium-size farms to solidify Ukraine's comparative advantage in agriculture and improve rural living conditions in the context of reconstruction
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10464
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Land and Mortgage Markets in Ukraine : Pre-War Performance, War Effects, and Implications for Recovery (2023)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Deininger, Klaus Land and Mortgage Markets in Ukraine: Pre-War Performance, War Effects, and Implications for Recovery
    Keywords: Agricultural Land Sales ; Agricultural Production ; Communities and Human Settlements ; Conflict and Development ; Credit Market ; Determinates of Land Price ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Impact of War on Markets ; Land Governance Reform ; Land Market ; Post War Reconstruction
    Abstract: Almost throughout Ukraine's independent history, agricultural land sales were prohibited. Measures to allow them and make land governance more transparent in 2020/21 were expected to improve equity, investment, credit access, and decentralization. This paper draws on administrative data and satellite imagery to describe land market performance before and after the Russian invasion, assess changes in land use for transacted parcels, and analyze determinants of land prices. Agricultural land market volume soon exceeded that of residential land and continued at a reduced level and with prices some 15-20 percent lower even after the invasion, with little sign of speculative land acquisition. Mortgage market activity and credit access remained below expectations. The paper discusses reasons and options for addressing them in a way that also factors in the needs of post-war reconstruction
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10385
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (60 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Deininger, Klaus Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
    Keywords: Agricultural Production ; Agriculture ; Armed Conflict ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Food Security ; Machine Learning ; War
    Abstract: This paper uses a 4-year panel (2019-2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine to estimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satellite imagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machine learning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield. Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.14 rather than 8.38 mn. ha, a 0.75 mn. ha reduction, 86% of which is due to economy-wide effects. The estimated conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal, which is particularly pronounced for small farms, translates into a 15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons. Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the current winter crop can be harvested fully
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10123
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Population Size, Concentration, And Civil War : A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Raleigh, Clionadh Population Size, Concentration, And Civil War
    Keywords: Armed Conflict ; Armed conflict ; Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Internal conflicts ; National level ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Population Policies ; Population Size ; Population groups ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Progress ; Small countries ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Armed Conflict ; Armed conflict ; Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Internal conflicts ; National level ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Population Policies ; Population Size ; Population groups ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Progress ; Small countries ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Armed Conflict ; Armed conflict ; Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Internal conflicts ; National level ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Population Policies ; Population Size ; Population groups ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Progress ; Small countries ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development
    Abstract: Why do larger countries have more armed conflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, on distances, on population concentrations, and some residual state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on a new dataset-ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset)-which disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The analysis confirms several of the hypotheses
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Aftermath of Civil War (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (29 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Reynal-Querol, Marta The Aftermath of Civil War
    Keywords: Civil Conflict ; Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Demographic Trends ; Disability ; Diseases ; Economic Growth ; Health Consequences ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Life Expectancy ; Malaria ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Policy ; Policy Research ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Civil Conflict ; Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Demographic Trends ; Disability ; Diseases ; Economic Growth ; Health Consequences ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Life Expectancy ; Malaria ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Policy ; Policy Research ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Civil Conflict ; Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Demographic Trends ; Disability ; Diseases ; Economic Growth ; Health Consequences ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Life Expectancy ; Malaria ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Policy ; Policy Research ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction
    Abstract: Using an "event-study" methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Ethnic Polarization And The Duration of Civil Wars (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (31 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Reynal-Querol, Marta Ethnic Polarization And The Duration of Civil Wars
    Keywords: Civil War ; Civil Wars ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Conflicts ; Decolonization ; Economic Development ; Ethnic Diversity ; Financial Support ; Foreign Investment ; Genocide ; Grant ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Civil War ; Civil Wars ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Conflicts ; Decolonization ; Economic Development ; Ethnic Diversity ; Financial Support ; Foreign Investment ; Genocide ; Grant ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development ; Civil War ; Civil Wars ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Conflicts ; Decolonization ; Economic Development ; Ethnic Diversity ; Financial Support ; Foreign Investment ; Genocide ; Grant ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Social Conflict and Violence ; Social Development
    Abstract: The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Causes of Civil War (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (33 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Reynal-Querol, Marta The Causes of Civil War
    Keywords: Civil War ; Civil wars ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Economic development ; Emerging Markets ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Labor Policies ; Nations ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Police ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Private Sector Development ; Property rights ; Rebels ; Rule of law ; Social Protections and Labor ; Civil War ; Civil wars ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Economic development ; Emerging Markets ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Labor Policies ; Nations ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Police ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Private Sector Development ; Property rights ; Rebels ; Rule of law ; Social Protections and Labor ; Civil War ; Civil wars ; Conflict ; Conflict and Development ; Economic development ; Emerging Markets ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Labor Policies ; Nations ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Police ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Private Sector Development ; Property rights ; Rebels ; Rule of law ; Social Protections and Labor
    Abstract: The dominant hypothesis in the literature that studies conflict is that poverty is the main cause of civil wars. We instead analyze the effect of institutions on civil war, controlling for income per capita. In our set up, institutions are endogenous and colonial origins affect civil wars through their legacy on institutions. Our results indicate that institutions, proxied by the protection of property rights, rule of law and the efficiency of the legal system, are a fundamental cause of civil war. In particular, an improvement in institutions from the median value in the sample to the 75th percentile is associated with a 38 percentage points' reduction in the incidence of civil wars. Moreover, once institutions are included as explaining civil wars, income does not have any effect on civil war, either directly or indirectly
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Democratic Jihad ? : Military Intervention And Democracy (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (62 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Hegre, Havard Democratic Jihad ?
    Keywords: Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Democracy ; Foreign policy ; Governance ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Parliamentary Government ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Political instability ; Politics and Government ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Progress ; Wars ; Woman ; Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Democracy ; Foreign policy ; Governance ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Parliamentary Government ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Political instability ; Politics and Government ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Progress ; Wars ; Woman ; Civil War ; Conflict and Development ; Democracy ; Foreign policy ; Governance ; Health, Nutrition and Population ; Parliamentary Government ; Peace ; Peace and Peacekeeping ; Policy Research ; Policy Research Working Paper ; Political instability ; Politics and Government ; Population Policies ; Post Conflict Reconstruction ; Progress ; Wars ; Woman
    Abstract: Democracies rarely if ever fight one another, but they participate in wars as frequently as autocracies. They tend to win the wars in which they participate. Democracies frequently build large alliances in wartime, but not only with other democracies. From time to time democracies intervene militarily in ongoing conflicts. The democratic peace may contribute to a normative justification for such interventions, for the purpose of promoting democracy and eventually for the promotion of peace. This is reinforced by an emerging norm of humanitarian intervention. Democracies may have a motivation to intervene in non-democracies, even in the absence of ongoing conflict, for the purpose of regime change. The recent Iraq War may be interpreted in this perspective. A strong version of this type of foreign policy may be interpreted as a democratic crusade. The paper examines the normative and theoretical foundations of democratic interventionism. An empirical investigation of interventions in the period 1960-96 indicates that democracies intervene quite frequently, but rarely against other democracies. In the short term, democratic intervention appears to be successfully promoting democratization, but the target states tend to end up among the unstable semi-democracies. The most widely publicized recent interventions are targeted on poor or resource-dependent countries in non-democratic neighborhoods. Previous research has found these characteristics to reduce the prospects for stable democracy. Thus, forced democratization is unpredictable with regard to achieving long-term democracy and potentially harmful with regard to securing peace. But short-term military successes may stimulate more interventions until the negative consequences become more visible
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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