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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (44)
  • MFK München
  • Online Resource  (44)
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  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (44)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing and European Conference of Ministers of Transport
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  • Santa Monica, Calif : Rand
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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (44)
  • MFK München
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  • Online Resource  (44)
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  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (44)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing and European Conference of Ministers of Transport
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  • Santa Monica, Calif : Rand
Keywords
  • 1
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (54 p.)
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe The macroeconomic policy challenges of continued globalisation
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Cet article étudie les défis de politiques économiques posés par la poursuite éventuelle au cours des deux prochaines décennies de l’intégration commerciale et financière internationales. Cette étude est fondée sur l’utilisation d’un modèle macroéconomique mondial récemment développé par l’OCDE. L’analyse conduit à plusieurs implications politiques importantes. Tout d’abord, avec une part croissante des économies non membres de l’OCDE dans la production mondiale, le commerce et les marchés financiers, les changements économiques mondiaux deviendront beaucoup plus dépendants de ceux de ces économies. Ensuite, la soutenabilité des déséquilibres mondiaux des comptes courants existants dépendra en partie de la construction et de la composition futures des avoirs et engagements internationaux. Alors que les déséquilibres devraient être soutenables un certain temps si l’intégration économique continue à ce rythme, un ralentissement du processus de mondialisation augmenterait la possibilité d’un ajustement brutal des marchés financiers. Enfin, l’accroissement des liens commerciaux et internationaux implique que les chocs macroéconomiques affectant un pays ou une région donnée auront dans le futur un impact plus fort sur les autres économies que maintenant. Les décideurs politiques des pays de l’OCDE devraient donc agir plus rapidement et plus fortement aux chocs économiques affectant les économies non membres de l’OCDE afin d’en limiter l’impact sur les économies membres.
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  • 2
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (38 p.)
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Globalisation and employment in the OECD
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Nous examinons dans cet article certains des changements qui pourraient se produire sur les marchés nationaux du travail de nombreux pays de l’OCDE en raison de l’internationalisation de la production des entreprises multinationales, en mettant plus particulièrement l’accent sur l’impact des flux d’investissement direct étranger (IDE) en provenance des pays de l’OCDE sur l’emploi dans le pays d’origine des entreprises investisseuses. Les études existantes laissent à penser que l’effet global des échanges et de l’internationalisation de la production sur la situation d’ensemble du marché du travail a été relativement modeste, même si certaines catégories de qualifications et de professions ont été plus fortement touchées. Les résultats empiriques présentés dans cet article tendent à indiquer que l’impact global sur l’emploi des flux sortants d’IDE varie suivant les branches d’activité et les pays. En ce qui concerne les secteurs manufacturiers entretenant des liens commerciaux étroits avec les économies non membres de l’OCDE, certains éléments montrent que l’emploi intérieur est devenu plus sensible aux variations des coûts de main-d’œuvre dans le pays considéré. À l’échelon national, nous parvenons à la conclusion que la croissance de l’investissement à l’étranger exerce un effet positif significatif sur la croissance de l’emploi intérieur aux États-Unis. À l’inverse, on constate l’existence d’une relation négative au Japon, en particulier pour les flux d’IDE à destination de la Chine. Par Margit Molnar, Nigel Pain et Daria Taglioni.
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 1-30
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 30 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2009, no. 1, p. 1-30
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Influenced by the perceived link between higher levels of educational attainment and growth, the education sector has seen significant reform efforts in recent years in a number of countries. Public spending in this sector has increased on average by one-fifth in real terms over the past decade and growth in terms of spending per student has also been marked in many countries (Figure 1, upper panel); governments in the OECD area now spend on average around 3% of GDP on primary and secondary education. However, a close correspondence between the level of resources and educational outcomes is difficult to demonstrate empirically: cross-sectional evidence reveals only a weak correlation between national spending per student or teaching resources and mean pupil performance in standardised tests (Figure 1, lower panels). Extra resources devoted to education do not automatically lead to commensurate improvements in outcomes.
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 17 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.597
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper addresses the question of whether and how monetary policy ease may lead to excesses in financial and real asset markets and ultimately result in financial dislocation. It presents evidence suggesting that periods when short-term interest rates have been persistently and significantly below what Taylor rules would prescribe are correlated with increases in asset prices, especially as regards housing, though no systematic effects are identified on equity markets. Significant asset price increases, however, can also occur when interest rates are in line with Taylor rules, associated with periods of financial deregulation and/or innovation. The paper argues that accommodating monetary policy over the period 2002-2005, in combination with rapid financial market innovation, would seem in retrospect to have been among the factors behind the run-up in asset prices and consequent financial imbalances -- the (partial) unwinding of which helped trigger the 2007 financial market turmoil. Moreover, the paper points out that in certain situations policy rates may be a rather blunt tool for dealing with both the build-up and aftermath of financial imbalances, raising the question whether “macro-prudential” regulation could be useful.
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 38 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.634
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper addresses the question of whether and how long-term financial trends may have modified the transmission mechanism from monetary policy decisions to economic activity. The focus is on longterm changes, abstracting from the disruptions created by the 2007-08 financial turmoil which are temporarily affecting the transmission mechanism. The first series of findings is that a number of factors have worked to strengthen the transmission of monetary policy, including more competitive financial markets, higher household indebtedness, greater diversity in the supply of financial products, greater financial integration and more responsive asset pricing mechanisms. However, other factors appear to have simultaneously gone in the direction of weakening transmission of domestic policy, including greater external financial influences, lower exchange-rate pass-through and a broad-based shift towards fixed-rate assets and liabilities. On balance, monetary policy appears to remain a powerful tool for guiding aggregate demand, but a number of changes that have worked to support the strength of transmission have also increased risks to financial stability.
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 35 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.655
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The financial crisis and economic downturn are going to weigh on fiscal positions in OECD countries over the short to medium-term, both through the operation of automatic stabilisers and the enactment of discretionary fiscal stimulus packages. However, the strategic policy options facing OECD countries are mainly determined by the soundness of their underlying fiscal positions which vary substantially. This paper first describes how OECD economies are situated with respect to underlying fiscal balances and net government debt. A number of countries seem to enjoy favourable fiscal positions with underlying fiscal surpluses, low government debt or even positive net financial asset positions. When taking account, as far as possible, of implicit liabilities associated with ageing populations and resource-based revenues, fiscal positions still vary greatly across countries. The paper then examines the criteria involved in deciding whether government financial asset accumulation is in excess of needs and the use to which any excess government saving might be put, whether increasing public spending or reducing taxes. Finally, the determinants of the optimal size of the government balance sheet for any given desired net debt position are discussed.
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.642
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Frequent recourse to large one-off operations in a number of OECD countries has undermined the accuracy of cyclically adjusted fiscal balances as a measure of both the sustainability of public finance and the fiscal stance. This paper first provides detailed information on the nature and amount of these one-offs for 9 OECD countries. The paper then presents a new indicator – the “underlying” fiscal balance – which effectively eliminates the impact of one-offs and cyclical developments. One-offs are derived as the deviations from trend in net capital transfers, i.e. from widely available national account data. This approach provides a consistent treatment of one-offs both across countries and over time, avoiding the potential information biases which could result from an individual identification of one-offs.
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  • 8
    Language: French
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (34 p.)
    Parallel Title: Parallele Sprachausgabe Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Au cours des 25 dernières années, l'inflation a considérablement diminué dans toutes les économies de l’OCDE. Pendant ce temps, la production de nombreux biens et services est devenue de plus en plus internationalisée et le niveau du commerce entre les pays de l’OCDE et les pays non membres a augmenté. Cet article étudie dans quelle mesure les changements observés dans le mécanisme d’inflation peuvent être attribués à l’intégration croissante des pays non membres de l’OCDE dans l’économie mondiale. Les résultats de l’analyse montrent que i) les prix d’importation jouent un rôle plus important dans la détermination des prix de consommation domestiques depuis le milieu des années 1990 ; ii) la sensibilité de l’inflation aux conditions économiques domestiques a diminué alors que la sensibilité aux conditions économiques extérieures a augmenté, en jouant à travers les prix d’importation ; et iii) la croissance forte du PIB dans les pays non membres au cours des cinq dernières années a contribué à l’augmentation des prix réels du pétrole et des métaux. Les simulations montrent que la globalisation a entraîné des pressions inflationnistes via des prix des matières premières plus élevés et des pressions désinflationnistes via des prix des importations des produits hors matières premières plus faibles. Le dernier effet semble avoir dominé dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE.
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-51
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 52 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Défis posés par la poursuite de la mondialisation en matière de politique macroéconomique
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-51
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This article investigates the macroeconomic policy challenges associated with a prospective continuation of international trade and financial integration over the next two decades, making use of a global macroeconomic model newly developed by the OECD. The analysis has several important policy implications. First, with the shares of non-OECD economies in world output, trade, and capital markets rising substantially, global economic developments would become much more dependent on developments in these economies than they used to be. Second, the sustainability of existing global current account imbalances will depend in part on the future build-up and composition of international assets and liabilities. While the imbalances could be sustainable for some time if economic integration continues at its current pace, a slowdown of the globalisation process would raise the likelihood of a disruptive adjustment in financial markets. Third, the increase in trade and financial linkages implies that macroeconomic shocks in a given country or region have a larger impact on other economies in the future than they do today. Policymakers in the OECD may have to act more promptly and more vigorously to economic “shocks” in the non-OECD economies in order to limit the impact on OECD economies.
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-32
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 32 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Mondialisation et hausse des prix à la consommation dans les pays de l'OCDE
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-32
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Over the past 25 years inflation has moderated considerably in all OECD economies. At the same time, the production of many goods and services has become increasingly internationalised and the level of trade between the OECD and non-OECD economies has risen markedly. This paper investigates the extent to which the observed changes in the inflation process can be attributed to the increasing integration of non-OECD economies into the global economy. The results of the analysis show that i) import prices have become a more important driver of domestic consumer prices since the mid-1990s; ii) the sensitivity of inflation to domestic economic conditions has declined whereas the sensitivity to foreign economic conditions has risen, working through import prices; and iii) the strong GDP growth in the non-OECD economies over the past five years has contributed to the growth of real oil and metals prices. A scenario analysis shows that globalisation has put upward pressure on inflation via higher commodity prices and downward pressure via lower non-commodity import prices with the latter effect having dominated in most OECD economies.
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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-34
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 34 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Mondialisation et emploi dans les pays de l'OCDE
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2008, no. 1, p. 1-34
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This article reviews some of the possible changes that may occur in the national labour markets of many OECD countries as a result of the internationalisation of production by multinational companies, with a particular focus on the impact of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from OECD countries on employment in the home country of the investing firms. Existing studies suggest that the overall impact of trade and the internationalisation of production on aggregate labour market outcomes has been comparatively small, although particular skill and occupational groups have been affected more strongly. The empirical findings in the paper suggest that the aggregate employment impact of outward FDI varies across industries and countries. For manufacturing industries with strong commercial links with the non-OECD economies, there is evidence that domestic employment has become more sensitive to movements in domestic labour costs. At the country level, the growth of outward investment is found to have a significant positive effect on domestic employment growth in the United States. In contrast, there is a negative association in Japan, especially from outward investment in China.
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  • 12
    Language: English
    Pages: 74 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.561
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper reviews some of the possible changes that may occur in the national labour markets of many OECD countries as a result of international trade and the internationalisation of production by multinational companies, with a particular focus on the impact of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from OECD countries on employment in the home country of the investing firms. Existing studies suggest that the overall impact of trade and the internationalisation of production on aggregate labour market outcomes has been comparatively small, although particular skill and occupational groups have been affected more strongly. The empirical findings in the paper suggest that the aggregate employment impact of outward FDI varies across industries and countries. For manufacturing industries with strong commercial links with the non-OECD economies, there is evidence that domestic employment has become more sensitive to movements in domestic labour costs. At the country level, the growth of outward investment is found to have a significant positive effect on domestic employment growth in the United States. In contrast, there is a negative association in Japan, especially from outward investment in China.
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  • 13
    Language: English
    Pages: 51 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.543
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper presents composite indicators of the institutional and policy characteristics of educational systems, collated from the questionnaire responses of 26 Member countries. These indicators provide an overview of the institutional framework in the primary and secondary education sector and are constructed so as to be used for the analysis of international differences in spending efficiency. The key features of the institutional setting in the non-tertiary education sector are grouped under three headings: i) the ability to prioritise and allocate resources efficiently (through decentralisation and mechanisms matching resources to specific needs); ii) the efficiency in managing spending at the local level (through outcome-focused policies and managerial autonomy), and iii) the efficiency in service provision (through benchmarking and user choice). For each country, an intermediate indicator is computed for each of these six institutional properties. Composite indicators then combine the six intermediate indicators of spending efficiency into a single, aggregate measure. Results are presented and some of their implications are discussed. Overall, the characteristics of the institutional framework in the non-tertiary public education sector seem to be very favourable, compared to OECD average, in the United Kingdom, Australia, Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands, whereas results are less favourable for the Czech Republic, Greece, Luxembourg, Japan, Turkey, Hungary, Belgium (French speaking community), Switzerland and Austria.
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  • 14
    Language: English
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.558
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The efficiency of schools diverges dramatically across countries in the OECD and can also vary markedly within countries. These differences in levels of efficiency can be traced to policy and institutional settings. As such, moving to best practice could boost educational attainment and reduce pressure on budgetary resources. This paper assesses empirically the relationship between institutional and policy settings and the efficiency of public spending on primary and secondary education across OECD countries. The analysis builds on two previous papers, which respectively developed OECD-area indicators of educational efficiency based on PISA score data and institutional indicators based on questionnaire responses. The results identify a number of institutional and policy settings that appear conducive to raising efficiency, as well as policies that appear to be detrimental to achieving higher levels of efficiency.
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  • 15
    Language: English
    Pages: 67 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.546
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper assesses the potential to raise public spending efficiency in the primary and secondary education sector. Resource availability per pupil has increased significantly over the past decade in a number of countries; often in attempting to exploit the link between educational attainment and growth. However, available evidence reveals only a weak correlation between increased resource availability and pupil performance. In order to draw cross-country comparisons...
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  • 16
    Language: English
    Pages: 82 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.552
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper investigates the macroeconomic policy challenges associated with a prospective continuation of international trade and financial integration over the next two decades, making use of a global macroeconomic model newly developed by the OECD. The analysis has several important policy implications. First, with the shares of non-OECD economies in world output, trade, and capital markets rising substantially, global economic developments would become much more dependent on developments in these economies than they used to be. Second, the sustainability of existing global current account imbalances will depend in part on the future build-up and composition of international assets and liabilities. While the imbalances could be sustainable for some time if economic integration continues at its current pace, a slowdown of the globalisation process would raise the likelihood of a disruptive adjustment in financial markets. Third, the increase in trade and financial linkages implies that macroeconomic shocks in a given country or region have a larger impact on other economies in the future than they do today. Policymakers in the OECD may have to act more promptly and more vigorously to economic 'shocks' in the non-OECD economies in order to limit the impact on OECD economies.
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  • 17
    Language: English
    Pages: 45 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.521
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper assesses how and in what circumstances, fiscal consolidations are affected by monetary conditions, using data covering 24 OECD countries over the past 25 years, Focusing on fiscal consolidation “episodes”, it is found that these tend to occur when large budget deficits threaten sustainability and usually when other macroeconomic indicators -- inflation, the exchange rate and unemployment -- suggest a “crisis” situation. After controlling for these factors, the paper finds strong econometric evidence that consolidation efforts are more likely to be pursued and to succeed if the monetary policy stance is eased in the initial stages of the episode, thus contributing to offsetting the contractionary impact of fiscal tightening. However, the link is far from mechanical and there are also counter-examples where monetary easing was followed by aborted consolidation efforts. Central bank independence explicitly precludes direct responses of monetary policy to fiscal actions. However, the paper also provides evidence that the indirect reaction of monetary policy and financial markets to fiscal consolidation may be influenced by the quality of fiscal adjustment, as short and long-term interest rates are more likely to fall during episodes characterised by greater reliance on current expenditure cuts. While this means that causality runs both ways, the paper provides evidence that, even after controlling for this proxy of fiscal adjustment quality, changes in monetary stance do affect the chances that a fiscal retrenchment plan will be successfully pursued.
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  • 18
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.490
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Long-term bond yields have been low in recent years both in nominal and real terms, and . especially in the United States - they have reacted differently to shifts in monetary and fiscal stances relative to previous cycles. This article examines various possible explanations for this behaviour, such as the effects of changes in monetary policy frameworks on inflation and interest rate expectations; developments in ex ante saving-investment balances, and shifts in investors. portfolio preferences (including official reserve accumulation, .petro-dollar. recycling and pension fund demand for longer maturities). The paper finds that it is unlikely that any individual explanation can account for the level and profile of bond yields in recent years, but that an important element has been a compression in term premia, together with shifts in expected short rates. Even though bond yields have started to rise in the early part of 2006, they are unlikely to go back to the levels that prevailed in the 1980s or the early 1990s, as several of the factors that drove them lower are set to persist.
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  • 19
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 64 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.524
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Over the past 25 years inflation has moderated considerably in all OECD economies. At the same time, the production of many goods and services has become increasingly internationalised and the level of trade between the OECD and non-OECD economies has risen markedly. This paper investigates the extent to which the observed changes in the inflation process can be attributed to the increasing integration of non-OECD economies into the global economy. The results of the analysis show that i) import prices have become a more important driver of domestic consumer prices since the mid-1990s; ii) the sensitivity of inflation to domestic economic conditions has declined whereas the sensitivity to foreign economic conditions has risen, working through import prices; and iii) the strong GDP growth in the non-OECD economies over the past five years has contributed to the growth of real oil and metals prices. A scenario analysis shows that globalisation has put upward pressure on inflation via higher commodity prices and downward pressure via lower non-commodity import prices with the latter effect having dominated in most OECD economies.
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  • 20
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2005, no. 2, p. 141-181
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 51 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Les règles budgétaires s'appliquant aux collectivités territoriales
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2005, no. 2, p. 141-181
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Rules constraining the discretionary powers of budget policymakers have become widespread among OECD economies, and the expanding role played by decentralised institutions in providing public services has led to their increasing adoption at the sub-central level.
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  • 21
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue économique de l'OCDE Vol. 2005, no. 2, p. 153-197
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Language: French
    Pages: 56 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Sub-central government fiscal rules
    Titel der Quelle: Revue économique de l'OCDE
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 1998
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2005, no. 2, p. 153-197
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Les règles qui limitent les pouvoirs discrétionnaires des responsables des politiques budgétaires sont aujourd’hui courantes dans les économies de l’OCDE, et le rôle croissant que jouent les institutions décentralisées dans l’offre des services publics a entraîné leur généralisation à l’échelon territorial. Des règles bien conçues permettent de tirer des gains d’efficience de l’autonomie locale tout en facilitant l’assainissement budgétaire, en amortissant les chocs économiques et en répondant aux objectifs de viabilité à long terme des finances publiques, tâches d’autant plus urgentes que, selon les prévisions, les services rendus par les collectivités territoriales seront de plus en plus sollicités du fait du vieillissement de la population.
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  • 22
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2005, no. 1, p. 167-217
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 53 p
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2005, no. 1, p. 167-217
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Accurate and timely information on the current state of economic activity is an important requirement for the policymaking process. Delays in the publication of official statistics mean that a complete picture of economic developments within a particular period emerges only some time after that period has elapsed. Thus considerable resources are, at times, devoted to making an assessment of the immediate past and the current conjuncture as well as projections about future developments. In practice, a regular flow of information is provided by the large number of quantitative and qualitative indicators that appear each month for different sectors of the economy. One challenge for policymakers is to put these together in a consistent manner to obtain a picture of the overall state of the economy.
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  • 23
    Language: English
    Pages: 105 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.440
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse international trade developments. New panel data estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and exchange rate pass-through into trade prices are reported for both OECD and non-OECD economies. The model set out has already been used successfully to monitor the global consistency of the international trade projections in the Economic Outlook.
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  • 24
    Language: English
    Pages: 56 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.458
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Innovation surveys provide a broad measure of the successful commercial introduction of new product and process innovations. The dual purposes of this paper are to establish whether survey-based measures of innovation are related to more widely used intermediate measures, such as R&D and patents, and to identify the principal factors that affect the probability of successful innovation. Cross-country panel data is used from the third European Community Innovation Survey (CIS3), with allowance made for possible differences by firm size and by sector of activity. The survey measures of innovative activity and success are found to be positively correlated with past R&D and patenting, suggesting that factors affecting the development of innovations also affect their subsequent implementation. The availability of qualified personnel and private financing, less rigid product and labour market regulations, greater co-operation in the innovation process and public financial support are all found to be positively associated with the proportion of successful innovators for at least some sectors and firm sizes. Innovation in small firms is found to be more dependent on co-operation and the availability of finance than in larger firms.
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  • 25
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    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 59 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.459
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper draws together the key findings from separate detailed analyses of the determinants of R&D, patenting and the commercial introduction of innovations in the business sector in order to identify the policies, institutions and framework factors that provide the most effective means of supporting innovation. The evidence suggests that there is a clear role for framework conditions, framework policies and specific science policies, both independently and in interaction with each other. Policies that raise the absorptive capacity of the economy (the capacity to understand and make use of new knowledge) are likely to have dual benefits, not only helping to stimulate new innovative activities, but also helping to maximise the benefits to be gained from the existing stock of knowledge. Potential policy trade-offs also need to be taken into account. Some policies that offer benefits for current innovation also have costs that could adversely affect future incentives to innovate. Others have trade-offs when considered in combination. Cross-country differences in the level of R&D intensity are shown to be closely correlated with crosscountry differences in science policies and institutions. Framework conditions and policies have an important influence when accounting for cross-country differences in the rate of change of R&D intensities over time.
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  • 26
    Language: English
    Pages: 77 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.465
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Against a background of mounting demands for spending on services provided by sub-central governments, this paper examines how fiscal rules can help to ensure that pressure on resources is minimised and available resources are used efficiently. Drawing on questionnaire responses and other sources, this paper gives a detailed picture of fiscal rules for sub-central governments in place among a number of OECD countries. The paper examines the rationales for using fiscal rules, the various impacts fiscal rules can have, the factors making for effective implementation and the interactions between the various types of rule. It then constructs a number of synthetic sub-indicators designed to assess the extent to which sub-central government fiscal frameworks exhibit favourable characteristics for the achievement of fiscal objectives. It concludes with the construction of a composite indicator based on the combined impacts in the different areas of fiscal policy.
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  • 27
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 60 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.457
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper uses panel regressions to investigate the effects of innovation policies and framework factors on business R&D intensity and patenting for a sample of 20 OECD countries over the period 1982- 2001. Both sets of factors are found to matter; the main determinants of innovativeness appear to be the availability of scientists and engineers, research conducted in the public sector (including universities), business-academic links, the degree of product market competition, a high level of financial development and access to foreign inventions. The effect of direct public financial support for business R&D is generally positive but modest, though it may larger for cash-constrained firms. Intellectual property rights appear to increase patenting significantly, but have little impact on R&D spending. Finally, the paper takes a closer look at the labour market for researchers, estimating jointly equations for employment and wages. Although the supply of scientists and engineers is eventually responsive to wage differentials, both with other professions and across countries, the evidence suggests that it may difficult to raise significantly the real amount of domestic R&D in the short run because the supply of researchers is relatively inelastic.
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  • 28
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 33 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.456
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Innovation is a broad topic, about which much has been written. Almost every kind of public policy has either a direct or an indirect impact on factors that affect innovative activity. The purpose of this paper is to draw out the key implications from selected studies concerning a small number of science-related policies that are widely employed in order to deal with perceived market failures in the innovation process. The main issues considered are fiscal incentives for private R&D, the role of public research organisations, the regulation of intellectual property, the availability of finance, and the supply of skilled human resources for science and technology. Two central themes developed in the paper are the need for accurate evaluation of all these policies, since each may have costs as well as benefits, and the likely enhancement of the wider social benefits from innovation if knowledge is able to diffuse freely, and if potential beneficiaries have sufficient absorptive capacity to be able to understand and use new knowledge productively.
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  • 29
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue économique de l'OCDE Vol. 2003, no. 2, p. 125-184
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Language: French
    Pages: 70 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Enhancing the Cost Effectiveness of Public Spending: Experience in OECD Countries
    Titel der Quelle: Revue économique de l'OCDE
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 1998
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2003, no. 2, p. 125-184
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Les dépenses publiques en proportion du PIB ont augmenté régulièrement dans la zone OCDE jusqu’au milieu des années 90, mais cette tendance s’est atténuée depuis. L’augmentation des dépenses résultant du développement continu des programmes sociaux a été en partie compensée par des facteurs temporaires ou ponctuels. Cependant, il est probable que les pressions sur les dépenses publiques vont s’intensifier, notamment sous l’effet du vieillissement des populations. Bien que les dépenses publiques aient un rôle à jouer dans la poursuite des grands objectifs...
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  • 30
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 125-156
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 44 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. La contribution des marchés du logement à la résilience économique
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 125-156
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the linkages between housing markets and the business cycle in OECD countries, focusing on how differences in the degree of resilience to economic shocks can be affected by the structural characteristics of housing and mortgage markets. The paper focuses specifically on: the transmission channel from housing wealth to consumption and on the factors behind house price variability, which help to determine whether the housing sector plays a stabilising role or not.
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  • 31
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue économique de l'OCDE Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 139-173
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Language: French
    Pages: 48 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. The Contribution of Housing Markets to Cyclical Resilience
    Titel der Quelle: Revue économique de l'OCDE
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 1998
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 139-173
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Les pays de l’OCDE ont témoigné de degrés variables de résilience économique au cours de la récente récession conjoncturelle, certains ayant négocié et surmonté mieux que d’autres une série de chocs communs. Dans une certaine mesure, les différences de résilience économique semblent liées à la performance des marchés du logement. En particulier, le dynamisme des prix immobiliers dans certains pays parait avoir dopé la consommation privée et la construction résidentielle et, par là même, contribué à compenser les faiblesses existantes dans d’autres secteurs. On constate que le cadre institutionnel des marchés du logement et des marchés hypothécaires détermine dans une large mesure non seulement l’efficience économique d’ensemble et les revenus réels, mais aussi la propagation des chocs et...
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  • 32
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 67-94
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 40 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Relocalisation internationale de la production et exportations de services
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 67-94
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between the relocation of international production and exports of services from the United States using a number of different panel data estimators for six different categories of services. A conventional export demand relationship is augmented by three different measures of the extent of international production relocation by US-based parent companies in service and non-service industries. Our results reveal considerable heterogeneity in the relationship...
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  • 33
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue économique de l'OCDE Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 75-105
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Language: French
    Pages: 44 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. International Production Relocation and Exports of Services
    Titel der Quelle: Revue économique de l'OCDE
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 1998
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 75-105
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Ces vingt dernières années, les échanges internationaux et l’investissement direct étranger (IDE) dans le secteur des services ont connu une remarquable expansion dans presque tous les pays de l’OCDE. Cette évolution s’explique en partie par la mondialisation générale des activités économiques durant cette période, comme le montrent, par exemple, Nicoletti et al. (2003). Cependant, le rythme de l’internationalisation dans le secteur des services a été encore plus rapide que dans les autres secteurs. Entre 1983 et 2003, la part (en dollars) des exportations de services dans les exportations totales de biens et de services de la zone de l’OCDE a progressé de plus de 2 points pour s’établir à un peu moins de 22 pour cent. Il est plus difficile d’estimer la part des transactions portant sur...
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  • 34
    Language: English
    Pages: 39 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.397
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which fiscal policy actions may be offset by simultaneous, anticipatory changes in private saving, as well as the determinants of that offset. The conditions under which private agents will engage in forward-looking consumption-smoothing behaviour are quite strict and unlikely to hold fully in practice. However, based on a sample of at most 21 OECD countries spanning the period 1970-2002, there is strong evidence of partial, yet substantial, offsetting movements in aggregate private and public saving. The overall offset is estimated at between about one-third and one-half, depending on model specification, and applies both to public consumption and revenue shifts. This is consistent with a marked degree of anticipatory private sector behaviour, insofar as the ex ante saving “leakage” embedded in the pure Keynesian or IS/LM type models would be expected to be smaller and apply only to revenues and transfers. Wealth effects, as in the case of rising equity and housing prices, are found to have an important complementary impact on saving, usually in reinforcing the direct saving offset. Initial conditions, as reflected in debt/GDP ratios are also found to influence the size of the offset.
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  • 35
    Language: English
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.394
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The paper examines the linkages between housing markets and the business cycle in OECD countries, focusing on how differences in the degree of resilience to economic shocks can be affected by the structural characteristics of housing and mortgage markets. The paper focuses specifically on: the transmission channel from housing wealth to consumption and on the factors behind house price variability, which help to determine whether the housing sector plays a stabilising role or not. Estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth are presented for ten OECD countries, where it is found that the strongest impact on consumption is in countries that have large, efficient and responsive mortgage markets. Particularly important in this regard is the degree of mortgage market “completeness” -- i.e. the extent to which the market is able to offer a variety of products and to serve a broad range of potential borrowers -- in particular, the extent to which they provide ...
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  • 36
    Language: English
    Pages: 31 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.391
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper analyses two factors which may cause cyclically-adjusted budget balances to give a misleading picture of underlying fiscal trends. It first explores the implications of recent large asset-market related fluctuations in government revenues for the measurement of structural budget balances. And second, it reviews the impact of the increased recourse to stopgap “one-off” measures to control deficits. The results confirm that since the late 1990s revenues have been more buoyant than would have been warranted by the registered rate of nominal output growth and the impact of tax measures. The study suggests that from 1995 to 2000 the average contribution of “unwarranted” revenues to year-to-year changes in cyclically-adjusted budget positions ranged from negligible to around ½ per cent of GDP, the main countries affected being the United States, the United Kingdom, France and some Nordic countries. Conversely, the subsequent decline in tax receipts has been sharper than could ...
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  • 37
    Language: English
    Pages: 52 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.412
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: This paper analyses the factors influencing the price of oil and its likely evolution over the next quarter century. It begins by investigating the fundamental forces shaping long-term oil price developments, highlighting the importance of growth-led demand for oil, particularly that emanating from fast-growing, energy-intensive developing countries, and the implications of increasingly geographically concentrated oil reserves. The paper presents oil price projections to 2030 and examines the sensitivity of the projections to the assumptions about growth and non-OPEC supply. While certain combinations of factors could lead to a significantly higher oil price, the projections also suggest that the optimal strategy of resource-rich oil producers would be to prevent it rising too far. The paper then documents short-term influences on the oil price, which peaked at $50 a barrel in 2004, and notes that they have probably led to a significant departure from the long-run equilibrium price ...
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  • 38
    Language: English
    Pages: 53 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.380
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In most OECD countries, public spending rose steadily as a share of GDP over the past decades to the mid-1990s, but this trend has since abated. The spending pressures stemming from the continued expansion of social programmes have been partly compensated by transient or one-off factors. Pressures on public spending, however, appear likely to intensify, in particular as a consequence of ageing populations. Since most OECD economies have very little scope for raising taxation or debt to finance higher spending, reforms to curb the growth in public spending while raising its cost effectiveness are now required. This paper presents a reform strategy for progress in this direction, based on detailed country reviews for over twothirds of OECD countries. Three main areas for action are identified: the budget process; management practices and the use of market mechanisms in the delivery of public services ...
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  • 39
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2003, no. 2, p. 109-161
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Language: English
    Pages: 55 p
    Parallel Title: Parallelausg. Améliorer le rapport coût-efficacité des dépenses publiques : L'expérience des pays de l'OCDE
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2003, no. 2, p. 109-161
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In most OECD countries, public spending rose steadily as a share of GDP over the past decades to the mid-1990s, but this trend has since abated. The spending pressures stemming from the continued expansion of social programmes have been partly compensated by transient or one-off factors. Pressures on public spending, however, appear likely to intensify, in particular as a consequence of ageing populations. Since most OECD economies have very little scope for raising taxation or debt to finance higher spending, reforms to curb the growth in public spending while raising its cost effectiveness are now required. Based on detailed country reviews for over two-thirds of OECD countries, this paper identifies three main areas for action: the budget process; management practices; and the use of market mechanisms in the delivery of public services ...
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  • 40
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 50 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.364
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Accurate and timely information on the current state of economic activity is an important requirement for the policymaking process. Delays in the publication of official statistics mean that a complete picture of economic developments within a particular period emerges only some time after that period has elapsed. The research described in this paper develops a set of econometric models that provide estimates of GDP growth for a number of major OECD countries and zones in the two quarters following the last quarter for which official data have been published. These models exploit the considerable amount of monthly conjunctural information that becomes available before the release of official national accounts data. Information is incorporated from both ‘soft’ indicators, such as business surveys, and ‘hard’ indicators, such as industrial production and retail sales, and use is made of different frequencies of data and a variety of estimation techniques. An automated procedure is ...
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  • 41
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    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.309
    Keywords: Economics ; Australia
    Abstract: This document analyses aspects of natural resource and environmental policies in Australia, focusing on water resource management, salinity and climate change mitigation. The state and central governments have not made use of their taxation powers in these domains. The cap-and-trade system for water rights in the Murray Darling basin aims at better integration of economic and environmental reform. Still higher benefits could be reaped from trading if the various restrictions on trade were lifted, and if water pricing reform were accelerated in rural areas, so as to reflect economic and environmental costs. The rules for allocating flows for the environment also need to be clarified. To address dryland salinity, more co-ordination between the States and the Commonwealth is needed, for example to avoid the contradiction inherent in subsidising revegetation programmes while at the same time authorising further land clearing. Economic instruments could be used for intermediate ...
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  • 42
    Language: English
    Pages: 60 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.276
    Keywords: Economics ; Germany
    Abstract: This document analyses German environmental policies, including, among others, discussion of air and water quality policy, use of the waste management hierarchy approach and of voluntary agreements. The German public has been highly sensitive to environmental concerns, leading to many policy initiatives in this area since the early 1980s. Significant environmental improvements have been achieved, using an approach frequently based on detailed regulations, often developed with the close involvement of industry and even individual polluters. There has developed a tendency to relieve some of the heaviest polluters from the most stringent regulation, on the grounds of competitiveness concerns, and some polluting activities receive considerable direct or indirect subsidies; these policies will increasingly make it unnecessarily expensive to meet environmental targets. Objectives need to be defined more clearly and consistently and a less discriminatory approach to taxation and ...
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  • 43
    Language: English
    Pages: 21 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.268
    Keywords: Economics ; United Kingdom
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of direct investment by foreign-owned companies on technical progress and hence labour productivity in the UK manufacturing sector. Using an industry-level panel data set we find that foreign-owned firms have a significant positive effect on the level of technical efficiency in domestic firms. There is evidence of significant intra-industry and inter-industry spillovers from inward investment. These findings remain robust even when other factors such as imports and domestic R&D expenditures are allowed for. Inward investment appears to be a much more important source of technical progress than foreign trade ...
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  • 44
    Language: English
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.247
    Keywords: Economics ; Turkey
    Abstract: This Working Paper presents a cross-Directorate Report on the economic, budgetary, regulatory and urbanpolicy implications of the earthquakes which struck the Marmara and Bolu areas of Turkey on 17 August and 12 November 1999. The earthquakes caused high casualties and significant material damage to property, with severe effects on economic activity. The Report traces the factors underlying Turkey’s vulnerability to earthquake damage, along a known active fault line, to deficiencies in risk identification procedures and risk-reduction methods, as well as to the absence of risk transfer and financing techniques. It suggests that these deficiencies may stem from the nature of recent Turkish economic development, which has been driven by the need to assimilate a mass migration from the countryside to the cities and has been associated with extremely high and variable inflation. Ensuring a more orderly future development requires both an overhaul of governance structures in ...
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