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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (11)
  • Bayreuth UB
  • 2015-2019  (11)
  • 1940-1944
  • Ollivaud, Patrice  (11)
  • Economics  (11)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Making the most of tourism in Indonesia to promote sustainable regional development (2019)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1535
    Keywords: Tourismus ; Nachhaltige Regionalentwicklung ; Indonesien ; Economics ; Indonesia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Tourism has boomed in Indonesia in recent years and is already one of the main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Indonesia has rich and diverse natural assets, whose tourism potential remains underutilised. The government has an ambitious target of attracting 20 million tourists by 2019, up from nearly 14 million in 2017. The main destination will continue to be Bali. Using Bali as the preferred development model, the government wants to develop other destinations, particularly through infrastructure programmes to improve connectivity, which is a longstanding challenge for tourism as well as for regional development more generally. Enhancing the tourism-related skills of local populations will provide them with expanded job opportunities. This calls for reforms to vocational education and training. Moreover, recent efforts by the authorities to improve the business environment need to continue, including through helping firms embrace digitalisation. Tourism may be growing too fast in some destinations without adequately taking into account sustainability issues, both for the environment and local communities. Better planning and co-ordination at all levels of government and across relevant policy areas can facilitate more sustainable tourism development. This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-indonesia.htm).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/c73325d9-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown (2018)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1466
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Produktionspotenzial ; Kapitalstock ; Investition ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Akzelerator ; Hysterese ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration of potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. For the most severely affected economies, the financial crisis is estimated to have reduced potential output by more than 2% via this transmission mechanism. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, over a period when the use of conventional macro policy instruments was constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competition-friendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/0c62cc26-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 3
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    Online Resource
    Boosting productivity in Switzerland (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1443
    Keywords: Arbeitsproduktivität ; Wirtschaftsdaten ; Forschung ; Schweiz ; Economics ; Switzerland ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Swiss GDP per capita stands amongst the top OECD performers. However, to face medium-term challenges productivity developments will be key to allow the country to maintain its enviable position. Recent trends have not been favourable, with productivity growth underperforming peer countries. Based on macroeconomic analysis and supported by firm-level data, results point to a significant role for competition, innovation, education, firm characteristics and entrepreneurship. The regulatory environment is a crucial element driving productivity and could explain some of the differences across cantons. It is also an important factor for productivity differences across sectors. Other issues weighing on Switzerland’s future performance include risks from ageing, which can have major consequences on productivity via its influence on economic sectors and also via the age structure and the evolution of productivity through working life. Fully utilising the potential of underrepresented population segments would also be beneficial, notably encouraging full-time participation of women and better integrating immigrants. More enterprise creation could be achieved with increased entrepreneurship education, expanded non-bank financing and a reduced regulatory burden. R&D, while an obvious success in Switzerland, has apparently not produced commensurate returns in output. Diversification, more knowledge sharing, a stronger role for higher education institutions and promotion of start-ups would help reinforce the links from R&D to productivity. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Switzerland (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm).
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/a29cdbbe-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Improving the allocation and efficiency of public spending in Indonesia (2017)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1381
    Keywords: Öffentliche Ausgaben ; Allokationseffizienz ; Wirtschaftlichkeit ; Indonesien ; Economics ; Indonesia ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Indonesia's fiscal position is generally sound and policy making prudent. However, the country still faces important challenges in terms of economic and social development. Infrastructure, education, health and social security are all spending areas that the government is trying to improve further, because the nation has yet to converge to the superior outcomes achieved by other countries at a similar level of development. The government's size is small, and raising more revenues will take time, which forces the authorities to get the most out of existing resources and prioritise enhancing the efficiency of public spending. To achieve such an improvement a whole-of-government approach is required, including in the budgeting process and in the establishment of medium-term goals. A key element of Indonesia's recent history lies in the tremendous efforts as from the late 1990s to go from a very centralised system of governance towards one with several nested levels of government. According to some metrics it was a success. Nonetheless, despite the considerable resources already devoted to decentralisation, there is still ample room for improvement in terms of coordination, transparency, accountability and service provision. More broadly, moving away from spending objectives and adopting performance-based incentives would lift outcomes. At the national level, Indonesia would also benefit from scrapping a certain number of inefficient expenditures, such as energy and fertiliser subsidies, and from concentrating on those policies with the highest payoffs, like filling infrastructure gaps and expanding conditional cash transfer schemes. While public employment, especially by some subnational governments, could be streamlined, improving its capacity should be the focus, including for teachers. The fight against corruption should continue by all available means, in particular with a more generalised use of electronic public procurement.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/528dc615-en
    URL: Volltext
    URL: Volltext
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1304
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Produktionspotenzial ; Investition ; Kapitalstock ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The OECD framework for estimating potential output is combined with previous OECD empirical research to analyse the causes of recent weak productivity growth. Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening. The slowdown in trend productivity growth in the pre-crisis period is mostly explained by a long-established slowdown in TFP growth, but since the crisis, the further deceleration is mainly due to weak capital deepening, a development apparent in practically every OECD country. Much of the weakness in the growth of the capital stock since the financial crisis can be explained by an accelerator response of investment to continued demand weakness, leading in turn to a deterioration in potential output via a hysteresis-like effect. Circumstantial evidence suggests that a misallocation of capital in the pre-crisis period also contributed to the slowdown in capital stock growth, particularly among the most severely affected countries. In many OECD countries, declining government investment as a share of GDP has further exacerbated post-crisis weakness in capital stock growth, both directly and probably indirectly via adverse spillover effects on business investment. Finally, at a time when the use of conventional macro policy instruments has become increasingly constrained, the slower pace of structural reform represents a missed opportunity, not least because more competitionfriendly product market regulation could have boosted both investment and potential growth.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlwvz0smq45-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1294
    Keywords: Produktionspotenzial ; Produktionsfunktion ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; Finanzkrise ; OECD-Staaten ; Employment ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points. Revisions to OECD published estimates of the output gap around the period of the financial crisis have been exceptionally large, with by far the largest contribution to these revisions coming from the labour-efficiency gap. The current paper investigates a modification to the standard OECD production function method for deriving potential output, which involves an additional cyclical adjustment in the derivation of trend labour efficiency. The additional adjustment helps to reduce the occurrence of large end-point revisions and of sign switches between the initial and final estimates of the labour-efficiency gap. The variables which are most often found to be useful in providing this cyclical adjustment of labour efficiency are manufacturing capacity utilisation and the investment share. However, for a few countries additional variables – house prices and credit – have been used to provide the cyclical adjustment, although this raises an issue as to whether the cyclical adjustment should be limited to a core set of variables to ensure the method remains reasonably homogenous across countries. Recent improvements to the specification of the Phillips curve, which imply a tighter fit between the unemployment gap and inflation, should also reduce end-point revisions to the unemployment gap in future.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jm0qwpqmz34-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession : a contest between small-scale bridge and large-scale dynamic factor models (2016)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1313
    Keywords: 2008-2014 ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Prognoseverfahren ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper compares the short-term forecasting performance of state-of-the-art large-scale dynamic factor models (DFMs) and the small-scale bridge models routinely used at the OECD. Pseudo-real time out-of-sample forecasts for France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States during and after the Great Recession (2008-2014) suggest that large-scale DFMs are not systematically more accurate than small-scale bridge models, especially at short forecast horizons. Moreover, DFM parameters appear to be highly unstable during the Great Recession (2008-2009), making forecast revisions between successive vintages difficult to explain as revisions cannot be fully attributed to news on specific groups of indicators. The implication for OECD forecasting practice is that there would be no gain from switching from the current small-scale bridge models to large-scale DFMs.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlv2jj4mw40-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The changing role of the exchange rate for macroeconomic adjustment (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1190
    Keywords: Leistungsbilanz ; Wechselkurs ; Wechselkurspolitik ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Makroökonomik ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Recent episodes of large exchange rate movements, such as for Japan or the United Kingdom, have typically not been associated with large changes in trade balances and despite the polarisation of international investment positions large currency fluctuations during the global crisis of 2008-09 did not cause significant financial dislocations. This paper presents empirical evidence that for a number of OECD countries firms’ increasing participation in global value chains may have contributed to reducing exchange rate pass-through to the terms of trade, which may in turn have contributed to reducing the response of trade balances to exchange rate changes. Further empirical evidence suggests that over the past two decades large net external debtor countries, including emerging market economies, have reduced net aggregate foreign currency exposures, thereby limiting direct financial effects of exchange rate fluctuations through the valuation of external assets and liabilities. However, sizable increases in foreign currency borrowing for a number of emerging market economies in the wake of the global crisis of 2008-09, including by non-financial corporations, suggest that large exchange rate movements may nonetheless cause financial stress for exposed sectors and entities that may percolate through the financial system despite limited aggregate exposures.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js4rfhjf15l-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand? (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1216
    Keywords: Außenhandel ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Außenhandelselastizität ; Prognose ; Welt ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement of global GDP and extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area. As a measure of demand for traded goods, global GDP at market exchange rates is more appropriate than the conventional purchasing power parity-based measure. Moreover, extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area – which is a particularly trade intensive region – has had a substantial negative effect on intra-euro area trade flows, which are commonly counted towards global trade. When global GDP is measured at market exchange rates and intra-euro area flows are removed from the measure of global trade, econometric estimations suggest that over the past 15 years the long-term elasticity of global trade to GDP has been similar to that of the 1990s. Indeed, the overwhelming part of post-crisis trade weakness can be attributed to weak global demand rather than structural changes, according to the econometric estimations in this paper and supporting evidence on changes in global investment, international production fragmentation and protectionism.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en
    URL: Volltext
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand? (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Economic Studies Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 269-267 | volume:2015 | year:2015 | number:1 | pages:269-267
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Economic Studies
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2015, no. 1, p. 269-267
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2015
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:269-267
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement of global GDP and extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area. As a measure of demand for traded goods, global GDP at market exchange rates is more appropriate than the conventional purchasing power parity-based measure. Moreover, extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area – which is a particularly trade intensive region – has had a substantial negative effect on intra-euro area trade flows, which are commonly counted towards global trade. When global GDP is measured at market exchange rates and intra-euro area flows are removed from the measure of global trade, econometric estimations suggest that over the past 15 years the long-term elasticity of global trade to GDP has been similar to that of the 1990s. Indeed, the overwhelming part of postcrisis trade weakness can be attributed to weak global demand rather than structural changes, according to the econometric estimations in this paper and supporting evidence on changes in global investment, international production fragmentation and protectionism.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2015-5jrq9tzbwkr3
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  • 11
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    The effect of the global financial crisis on OECD potential output (2015)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD Journal: Economic Studies Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 41-60 | volume:2014 | year:2014 | number:1 | pages:41-60
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (20 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Titel der Quelle: OECD Journal: Economic Studies
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2014, no. 1, p. 41-60
    Angaben zur Quelle: volume:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: year:2014
    Angaben zur Quelle: number:1
    Angaben zur Quelle: pages:41-60
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Potential output losses from the global financial crisis are estimated by comparing recent OECD published projections with a counter-factual assuming a continuation of pre-crisis productivity trends and a trend employment rate which is sensitive to demographic trends. Among the 19 OECD countries which experienced a banking crisis over the period 2007-11 the median loss in potential output in 2014 is estimated to be about 5½ per cent, compared with a loss in aggregate potential output across all OECD countries of about 3½ per cent. The loss does, however, vary widely across countries, being more than 10% for several smaller European, mainly euro area, countries. The largest adverse effects come from lower trend productivity, which is a combination of both lower total factor productivity and lower capital per worker. Despite large increases in structural unemployment in some countries, the contribution of lower potential employment is limited because the adverse effect on labour force participation is generally much less than might have been expected on the basis of previous severe downturns. This may partly reflect pension reforms and a tightening up of early retirement pathways. Pre-crisis conditions relating to over-heating and financial excesses, including high inflation, high investment, large current account deficits, high total economy indebtedness and more rapid growth in capital-per-worker are all correlated with larger post-crisis potential output losses. This suggests that underlying the potential output losses was a substantial misallocation of resources, especially of capital, in the pre-crisis boom period. On the other hand, more competition-friendly product market regulation is associated with smaller losses of potential output, suggesting that it facilitates a reallocation of resources across firms and sectors in the aftermath of an adverse shock and so helps to mitigate its consequences. JEL classification: E32; E44. Keywords: Banking crisis, financial crisis, global financial crisis, potential output.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2014-5js64l2bv0zv
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