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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (12)
  • HBZ
  • 2005-2009  (12)
  • André, Christophe  (12)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (12)
  • Economics  (12)
  • Schulden  (1)
  • Education
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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (12)
  • HBZ
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  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (12)
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  • 1
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    Accounting for One-off Operations when Assessing Underlying Fiscal Positions (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.642
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: Frequent recourse to large one-off operations in a number of OECD countries has undermined the accuracy of cyclically adjusted fiscal balances as a measure of both the sustainability of public finance and the fiscal stance. This paper first provides detailed information on the nature and amount of these one-offs for 9 OECD countries. The paper then presents a new indicator – the “underlying” fiscal balance – which effectively eliminates the impact of one-offs and cyclical developments. One-offs are derived as the deviations from trend in net capital transfers, i.e. from widely available national account data. This approach provides a consistent treatment of one-offs both across countries and over time, avoiding the potential information biases which could result from an individual identification of one-offs.
    DOI: 10.1787/236220765316
    URL: Volltext
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  • 2
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    Health Status Determinants : Lifestyle, Environment, Health Care Resources and Efficiency (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 75 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.627
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: This paper aims to shed light on the contribution of health care and other determinants to the health status of the population and to provide evidence on whether or not health care resources are producing similar value for money across OECD countries. First, it discusses the pros and cons of various indicators of the health status, concluding that mortality and longevity indicators have some drawbacks but remain the best available proxies. Second, it suggests that changes in health care spending, lifestyle factors (smoking and alcohol consumption as well as diet), education, pollution and income have been important factors behind improvements in health status. Third, it derives estimates of countries’ relative performance in transforming health care resources into longevity from two different methods – panel data regressions and data envelopment analysis – which give remarkably consistent results. The empirical estimates suggest that potential efficiency gains might be large enough to raise life expectancy at birth by almost three years on average for OECD countries, while a 10% increase in total health spending would increase life expectancy by three to four months.
    DOI: 10.1787/240858500130
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  • 3
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    Strategies for Countries with Favourable Fiscal Positions (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 35 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.655
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: The financial crisis and economic downturn are going to weigh on fiscal positions in OECD countries over the short to medium-term, both through the operation of automatic stabilisers and the enactment of discretionary fiscal stimulus packages. However, the strategic policy options facing OECD countries are mainly determined by the soundness of their underlying fiscal positions which vary substantially. This paper first describes how OECD economies are situated with respect to underlying fiscal balances and net government debt. A number of countries seem to enjoy favourable fiscal positions with underlying fiscal surpluses, low government debt or even positive net financial asset positions. When taking account, as far as possible, of implicit liabilities associated with ageing populations and resource-based revenues, fiscal positions still vary greatly across countries. The paper then examines the criteria involved in deciding whether government financial asset accumulation is in excess of needs and the use to which any excess government saving might be put, whether increasing public spending or reducing taxes. Finally, the determinants of the optimal size of the government balance sheet for any given desired net debt position are discussed.
    DOI: 10.1787/230123832406
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  • 4
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    Revenue Buoyancy and its Fiscal Policy Implications (2008)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 17 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.598
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: Tax receipts surged between 2005 and 2007 in many OECD countries, resulting in significant improvements in headline fiscal positions. As a consequence, pressures for tax cuts and for public spending increases have emerged. In the past, responding to such demands has permanently weakened budget positions as revenue windfalls ultimately proved to be temporary. Hence, the opportunity to address structural deficit problems and prepare for future demographic trends has been lost, and the ability to respond to subsequent cyclical downturns has been weakened. This paper provides an analysis of the factors behind recent revenue buoyancy and examines past responses to unexpected revenue gains. It also discusses whether improved information on fiscal positions and future fiscal challenges, combined with relevant fiscal rules, might help in avoiding a repetition of past errors in fiscal policy.
    DOI: 10.1787/244135385705
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  • 5
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    Why has Core Inflation Remained so Muted in the Face of the Oil Shock? (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 35 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.551
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: To help policymakers form a judgment on inflation risks and the required monetary policy stance the OECD has developed an analytical framework based on a set of 'eclectic' Phillips curves estimated for the two largest OECD economies, the United States and the euro area, which is presented in this paper. This framework is used in the preparation of the Economic Outlook to explain recent developments in core inflation, excluding food and energy, based on developments in measures of economic slack (the output gap), spill-over effects from energy prices onto core inflation and lagged responses to past inflation via expectations formation. The fact that the knock-on effects from energy shocks onto core inflation appear small in comparison with the 1970s can be explained by the secular fall in energy intensity, a low and stable rate of 'mean inflation' -- to which observed inflation reverts after a shock has worked its way through -- and persistent slack in the aftermath of the bursting of the dotcom bubble.
    DOI: 10.1787/206408110285
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  • 6
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    Corporate Net Lending : A Review of Recent Trends (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 45 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.583
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: Since 2001, OECD corporate net lending has risen sharply. This paper examines the main forces at play behind this run-up and provides some insight into whether and how they might possibly unwind in the future, a process that may already be underway. It shows in particular that, the increase is partly temporary with some of it likely to fade with the cycle and the ongoing adjustments in the financial and housing sectors. On the other hand, part of the increase reflects structural changes in corporate behaviour and in their environment and is likely to persist. The paper also points to cross-country differences reflecting, for example, the role of competiveness in Japan and continental Europe, and of the financial sector in the United Kingdom.
    DOI: 10.1787/044308023722
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  • 7
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    What Promotes Fiscal Consolidation : OECD Country Experiences (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 38 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.553
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: Fiscal consolidation is required in most OECD countries. This is especially so in view of mediumand long-term spending pressures on public finances, related, inter alia, to ageing. Based on a dataset covering a large number of OECD fiscal consolidation episodes starting in the late 1970s, the paper presents evidence, both descriptive and econometric, on macroeconomic conditions and policy set-ups that have been effective in triggering and sustaining fiscal consolidation. Main findings include: Large initial deficits and high interest rates have been important in prompting fiscal adjustment and also in boosting the overall size and duration of consolidation. Concerning the quality of fiscal policies, an emphasis on cutting current expenditures has been associated with overall larger consolidation. Fiscal rules with embedded expenditure targets tended to be associated with larger and longer adjustments, pointing to institutional features playing a potentially important role in generating successful consolation efforts. Experience across countries also shows that certain design features such as transparency, flexibility to face shocks and effective enforcement mechanisms seem important for the effectiveness of fiscal rules.
    DOI: 10.1787/180833424370
    URL: Volltext
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  • 8
    Online-Ressource
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    Recent House Price Developments : The Role of Fundamentals (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 61 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.475
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: In the vast majority of OECD economies, house prices in real terms have been moving up strongly since the mid-1990s. Because of the important role housing wealth has been playing during the current upswing, this paper will look more closely at what is underlying these developments for 18 OECD countries over the period from 1970 to the present, with a view to shedding some light on whether or not prices are in line with fundamentals. The paper begins by putting the most recent housing price run-ups in the context of the experiences of the past 35 years. It then examines current valuations against a range of benchmarks. It concludes with a review of the links between a possible correction of housing prices and real activity. The main highlights from this analysis are as follows: 1) The size and duration of the current real house price increases; the degree to which they have tended to move together across countries; and the extent to which they have disconnected from the business cycle are unprecedented. 2) Overvaluation of real house prices may only apply to a relatively small number of countries. However, the extent to which these prices look to be fairly valued depends largely on longer-term interest rates remaining at or close to their current low levels. 3) If house prices were to adjust downward, the historical record suggests that the drops might be large and that the process could be protracted, given the observed stickiness of nominal house prices and the current low rates of inflation.
    DOI: 10.1787/864035447847
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  • 9
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    Has the Rise in Debt Made Households More Vulnerable? (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 40 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.535
    Schlagwort(e): Schulden ; Privater Haushalt ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics
    Kurzfassung: This paper reviews, for a number of OECD economies, macroeconomic developments in household balance sheets over the past two decades. The main findings show that the rise in household debt to historical levels has been driven by a combination of favourable financial conditions and buoyant housing markets. There have also been a number of supply-side innovations in credit markets that have eased the access to credit for lower income borrowers and reduced financial constraints for first-time homebuyers. Total household net wealth has risen and provided households with a financial cushion against a negative shock. That said, households in a number of countries have leveraged balance sheets and the sensitivity to house price and interest rate developments has likely increased. The paper then examines micro level information which suggests that most of the debt is held by households better able to manage it. In particular, the major part of debt is held by higher-income households, who also spend a smaller proportion of their disposable income servicing debts. Lower-income households, with less ability to service debt, do not hold that much and, as such, the spill over effects from this group to the rest of the economy are perhaps not large. Whether the situation remains benign or not is discussed in the final section of the paper. Estimates presented point to significant effects of changes in net wealth on household saving rates in a large number of the countries studied.
    DOI: 10.1787/352035704305
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  • 10
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    La contribution des marchés du logement à la résilience économique (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  Revue économique de l'OCDE Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 139-173
    Details
    ISSN: 1684-3444
    Sprache: Französisch
    Seiten: 48 p
    Paralleltitel: Parallelausg. The Contribution of Housing Markets to Cyclical Resilience
    Titel der Quelle: Revue économique de l'OCDE
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : OCDE, 1998
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 139-173
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: Les pays de l’OCDE ont témoigné de degrés variables de résilience économique au cours de la récente récession conjoncturelle, certains ayant négocié et surmonté mieux que d’autres une série de chocs communs. Dans une certaine mesure, les différences de résilience économique semblent liées à la performance des marchés du logement. En particulier, le dynamisme des prix immobiliers dans certains pays parait avoir dopé la consommation privée et la construction résidentielle et, par là même, contribué à compenser les faiblesses existantes dans d’autres secteurs. On constate que le cadre institutionnel des marchés du logement et des marchés hypothécaires détermine dans une large mesure non seulement l’efficience économique d’ensemble et les revenus réels, mais aussi la propagation des chocs et...
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2004-art6-fr
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  • 11
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    The Contribution of Housing Markets to Cyclical Resilience (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    In:  OECD journal: economic studies Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 125-156
    Details
    ISSN: 1995-2856
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 44 p
    Paralleltitel: Parallelausg. La contribution des marchés du logement à la résilience économique
    Titel der Quelle: OECD journal: economic studies
    Publ. der Quelle: Paris : Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2008
    Angaben zur Quelle: Vol. 2004, no. 1, p. 125-156
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: This paper examines the linkages between housing markets and the business cycle in OECD countries, focusing on how differences in the degree of resilience to economic shocks can be affected by the structural characteristics of housing and mortgage markets. The paper focuses specifically on: the transmission channel from housing wealth to consumption and on the factors behind house price variability, which help to determine whether the housing sector plays a stabilising role or not.
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2004-art6-en
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  • 12
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    Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries (2005)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.434
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: Measuring cyclically-adjusted budget balances for OECD countries An important tool in the analysis of fiscal policy is the distinction between structural and cyclical components of the budget balance. This paper describes work undertaken to re-estimate and re-specify the elasticities underlying the Economics Department's calculations of cyclically-adjusted budget balances. Account is taken of tax reforms introduced since the previous updating exercise. A number of methodological innovations have been introduced to better account for the lags between taxes and activity and to ensure greater cross-country consistency in the estimates. The methodology underlying cyclical adjustment of expenditures has also been reviewed. Finally, the country coverage has been extended. The overall results are broadly consistent with the previous set of estimates. The sensitivity of government net lending to a 1 percentage point change in the output gap remains at around 0.5% of GDP for OECD economies on average.
    DOI: 10.1787/787626008442
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