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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (2)
  • HBZ
  • 2005-2009  (2)
  • 2006  (2)
  • André, Christophe  (2)
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (2)
  • Economics  (2)
  • Education
Datasource
  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (2)
  • HBZ
Material
Language
Years
  • 2005-2009  (2)
Year
Publisher
  • Paris : OECD Publishing  (2)
Keywords
  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 61 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.475
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: In the vast majority of OECD economies, house prices in real terms have been moving up strongly since the mid-1990s. Because of the important role housing wealth has been playing during the current upswing, this paper will look more closely at what is underlying these developments for 18 OECD countries over the period from 1970 to the present, with a view to shedding some light on whether or not prices are in line with fundamentals. The paper begins by putting the most recent housing price run-ups in the context of the experiences of the past 35 years. It then examines current valuations against a range of benchmarks. It concludes with a review of the links between a possible correction of housing prices and real activity. The main highlights from this analysis are as follows: 1) The size and duration of the current real house price increases; the degree to which they have tended to move together across countries; and the extent to which they have disconnected from the business cycle are unprecedented. 2) Overvaluation of real house prices may only apply to a relatively small number of countries. However, the extent to which these prices look to be fairly valued depends largely on longer-term interest rates remaining at or close to their current low levels. 3) If house prices were to adjust downward, the historical record suggests that the drops might be large and that the process could be protracted, given the observed stickiness of nominal house prices and the current low rates of inflation.
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 40 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.535
    Keywords: Schulden ; Privater Haushalt ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics
    Abstract: This paper reviews, for a number of OECD economies, macroeconomic developments in household balance sheets over the past two decades. The main findings show that the rise in household debt to historical levels has been driven by a combination of favourable financial conditions and buoyant housing markets. There have also been a number of supply-side innovations in credit markets that have eased the access to credit for lower income borrowers and reduced financial constraints for first-time homebuyers. Total household net wealth has risen and provided households with a financial cushion against a negative shock. That said, households in a number of countries have leveraged balance sheets and the sensitivity to house price and interest rate developments has likely increased. The paper then examines micro level information which suggests that most of the debt is held by households better able to manage it. In particular, the major part of debt is held by higher-income households, who also spend a smaller proportion of their disposable income servicing debts. Lower-income households, with less ability to service debt, do not hold that much and, as such, the spill over effects from this group to the rest of the economy are perhaps not large. Whether the situation remains benign or not is discussed in the final section of the paper. Estimates presented point to significant effects of changes in net wealth on household saving rates in a large number of the countries studied.
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