ISBN:
9783662540336
Language:
English
Pages:
1 Online-Ressource (xii, 261 Seiten)
Series Statement:
The Frontiers Collection
Parallel Title:
Erscheint auch als The technological singularity
Parallel Title:
Print version Callaghan, Victor The Technological Singularity : Managing the Journey
DDC:
100
Keywords:
Computer science
;
Electronic books
;
Einzigkeit
;
Technischer Fortschritt
;
Wissenschaftsethik
;
Künstliche Intelligenz
;
Risikomanagement
Abstract:
Foreword -- References -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- 1 Introduction to the Technological Singularity -- 1.1 Why the "Singularity" Is Important -- 1.2 Superintelligence, Superpowers -- 1.3 Danger, Danger! -- 1.4 Uncertainties and Safety -- References -- Risks of, and Responses to, the Journey to the Singularity -- 2 Risks of the Journey to the Singularity -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Catastrophic AGI Risk -- 2.2.1 Most Tasks Will Be Automated -- 2.2.2 AGIs Might Harm Humans -- 2.2.3 AGIs May Become Powerful Quickly -- 2.2.3.1 Hardware Overhang -- 2.2.3.2 Speed Explosion -- 2.2.3.3 Intelligence Explosion -- References -- 3 Responses to the Journey to the Singularity -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Post-Superintelligence Responses -- 3.3 Societal Proposals -- 3.3.1 Do Nothing -- 3.3.1.1 AI Is Too Distant to Be Worth Our Attention -- 3.3.1.2 Little Risk, no Action Needed -- 3.3.1.3 Let Them Kill Us -- 3.3.1.4 "Do Nothing" Proposals-Our View -- 3.3.2 Integrate with Society -- 3.3.2.1 Legal and Economic Controls -- 3.3.2.2 Foster Positive Values -- 3.3.2.3 "Integrate with Society" Proposals-Our View -- 3.3.3 Regulate Research -- 3.3.3.1 Review Boards -- 3.3.3.2 Encourage Research into Safe AGI -- 3.3.3.3 Differential Technological Progress -- 3.3.3.4 International Mass Surveillance -- 3.3.3.5 "Regulate Research" Proposals-Our View -- 3.3.4 Enhance Human Capabilities -- 3.3.4.1 Would We Remain Human? -- 3.3.4.2 Would Evolutionary Pressures Change Us? -- 3.3.4.3 Would Uploading Help? -- 3.3.4.4 "Enhance Human Capabilities" Proposals-Our View -- 3.3.5 Relinquish Technology -- 3.3.5.1 Outlaw AGI -- 3.3.5.2 Restrict Hardware -- 3.3.5.3 "Relinquish Technology" Proposals-Our View -- 3.4 External AGI Constraints -- 3.4.1 AGI Confinement -- 3.4.1.1 Safe Questions -- 3.4.1.2 Virtual Worlds -- 3.4.1.3 Resetting the AGI -- 3.4.1.4 Checks and Balances
Abstract:
3.4.1.5 "AI Confinement" Proposals-Our View -- 3.4.2 AGI Enforcement -- 3.4.2.1 "AGI Enforcement" Proposals-Our View -- 3.5 Internal Constraints -- 3.5.1 Oracle AI -- 3.5.1.1 Oracles Are Likely to Be Released -- 3.5.1.2 Oracles Will Become Authorities -- 3.5.1.3 "Oracle AI" Proposals-Our View -- 3.5.2 Top-Down Safe AGI -- 3.5.2.1 Three Laws -- 3.5.2.2 Categorical Imperative -- 3.5.2.3 Principle of Voluntary Joyous Growth -- 3.5.2.4 Utilitarianism -- 3.5.2.5 Value Learning -- 3.5.2.6 Approval-Directed Agents -- 3.5.2.7 "Top-Down Safe AGI" Proposals-Our View -- 3.5.3 Bottom-up and Hybrid Safe AGI -- 3.5.3.1 Evolutionary Invariants -- 3.5.3.2 Evolved Morality -- 3.5.3.3 Reinforcement Learning -- 3.5.3.4 Human-like AGI -- 3.5.3.5 "Bottom-up and Hybrid Safe AGI" Proposals-Our View -- 3.5.4 AGI Nanny -- 3.5.4.1 "AGI Nanny" Proposals-Our View -- 3.5.5 Motivational Scaffolding -- 3.5.6 Formal Verification -- 3.5.6.1 "Formal Verification" Proposals-Our View -- 3.5.7 Motivational Weaknesses -- 3.5.7.1 High Discount Rates -- 3.5.7.2 Easily Satiable Goals -- 3.5.7.3 Calculated Indifference -- 3.5.7.4 Programmed Restrictions -- 3.5.7.5 Legal Machine Language -- 3.5.7.6 "Motivational Weaknesses" Proposals-Our View -- 3.6 Conclusion -- Acknowledgementss -- References -- Managing the Singularity Journey -- 4 How Change Agencies Can Affect Our Path Towards a Singularity -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Pre-singularity: The Dynamic Process of Technological Change -- 4.2.1 Paradigm Shifts -- 4.2.2 Technological Change and Innovation Adoption -- 4.2.3 The Change Agency Perspective -- 4.2.3.1 Business Organisations as Agents of Change in Innovation Practice -- 4.2.3.2 Social Networks as Agents of Change -- 4.2.3.3 The Influence of Entrepreneurs as Agents of Change -- 4.2.3.4 Nation States as Agents of Change -- 4.3 Key Drivers of Technology Research and Their Impact
Abstract:
4.4 The Anti-singularity Postulate -- 4.5 Conclusions -- References -- 5 Agent Foundations for Aligning Machine Intelligence with Human Interests: A Technical Research Agenda -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.1.1 Why These Problems? -- 5.2 Highly Reliable Agent Designs -- 5.2.1 Realistic World-Models -- 5.2.2 Decision Theory -- 5.2.3 Logical Uncertainty -- 5.2.4 Vingean Reflection -- 5.3 Error-Tolerant Agent Designs -- 5.4 Value Specification -- 5.5 Discussion -- 5.5.1 Toward a Formal Understanding of the Problem -- 5.5.2 Why Start Now? -- References -- 6 Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Key ASI R&D Risk and Decision Issues -- 6.3 Risk Analysis Methods -- 6.3.1 Fault Trees -- 6.3.2 Event Trees -- 6.3.3 Estimating Parameters for Fault Trees and Event Trees -- 6.3.4 Elicitation of Expert Judgment -- 6.3.5 Aggregation of Data Sources -- 6.4 Risk Management Decision Analysis Methods -- 6.5 Evaluating Opportunities for Future Research -- 6.6 Concluding Thoughts -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 7 Diminishing Returns and Recursive Self Improving Artificial Intelligence -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Self-improvement -- 7.2.1 Evolutionary Algorithms -- 7.2.2 Learning Algorithms -- 7.3 Limits of Recursively Improving Intelligent Algorithms -- 7.3.1 Software Improvements -- 7.3.2 Hardware Improvements -- 7.4 The Takeaway -- References -- 8 Energy, Complexity, and the Singularity -- 8.1 A Contradiction -- 8.2 Challenges -- 8.2.1 Climate Change -- 8.2.2 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services -- 8.2.3 Energy-or, Where's My Jetsons Car? -- 8.2.4 The Troubles with Science -- 8.3 Energy and Complexity -- 8.4 Exponentials and Feedbacks -- 8.5 Ingenuity, not Data Processing -- 8.6 In Summary -- Acknowledgements -- References
Abstract:
9 Computer Simulations as a Technological Singularity in the Empirical Sciences -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 The Anthropocentric Predicament -- 9.3 The Reliability of Computer Simulations -- 9.3.1 Verification and Validation Methods -- 9.4 Final Words -- References -- 10 Can the Singularity Be Patented? (And Other IP Conundrums for Converging Technologies) -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 A Singular Promise -- 10.3 Intellectual Property -- 10.3.1 Some General IP Problems in Converging Technologies -- 10.3.2 Some Gaps in IP Relating to the Singularity -- 10.4 Limits to Ownership and Other Monopolies -- 10.5 Owning the Singularity -- 10.6 Ethics, Patents and Artificial Agents -- 10.7 The Open Alternative -- References -- 11 The Emotional Nature of Post-Cognitive Singularities -- 11.1 Technological Singularity: Key Concepts -- 11.1.1 Tools and Methods -- 11.1.2 Singularity: Main Hypotheses -- 11.1.3 Implications of Post-singularity Entities with Advanced, Meta-cognitive Intelligence Ruled by Para-emotions -- 11.2 Post-cognitive Singularity Entities and their Physical Nature -- 11.2.1 Being a Singularity Entity -- 11.2.1.1 Super-intelligent Entities -- 11.2.1.2 Transhumans -- 11.2.2 Post Singularity Entities as Living Systems? -- 11.3 Para-emotional Systems -- 11.4 Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 12 A Psychoanalytic Approach to the Singularity: Why We Cannot Do Without Auxiliary Constructions -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 AI and Intelligence -- 12.3 Consciousness -- 12.4 Reason and Emotion -- 12.5 Psychoanalysis -- 12.6 Conclusion -- References -- Reflections on the Journey -- 13 Reflections on the Singularity Journey -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Eliezer Yudkowsky -- 13.2.1 The Event Horizon -- 13.2.2 Accelerating Change -- 13.2.3 The Intelligence Explosion -- 13.2.4 MIRI and LessWrong -- 13.3 Scott Aaronson -- 13.4 Stuart Armstrong
Abstract:
13.5 Too Far in the Future -- 13.6 Scott Siskind -- 13.6.1 Wireheading -- 13.6.2 Work on AI Safety Now -- 14 Singularity Blog Insights -- 14.1 Three Major Singularity Schools -- 14.2 AI Timeline Predictions: Are We Getting Better? -- 14.3 No Time Like the Present for AI Safety Work -- 14.4 The Singularity Is Far -- Appendix -- The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-human Era (reprint) -- References -- References -- Titles in this Series
DOI:
10.1007/978-3-662-54033-6
URL:
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