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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (6)
  • München UB
  • HBZ
  • English  (6)
  • Fournier, Jean-Marc  (6)
  • Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.  (6)
  • Graue Literatur  (6)
  • Arbeitsmarktpolitik
  • Aufsatzsammlung
  • Deskribierung zurückgestellt
  • Education
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (26 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1229
    Keywords: 1985 - 2013 ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Finanzpolitik ; Schuldenmanagement ; Nachhaltigkeit ; OECD-Staaten ; Finance and Investment ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt. The objective of this paper is to calculate endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction function to growing debt has the “fiscal fatigue” property (a loosening fiscal effort makes the primary balance insufficient to support rising debt) at high debt levels. It is the combination of this feature of the primary balance reaction function with the market interest rate reaction to growing debt that determines the government debt limit beyond which debt cannot be rolled over. An application of this framework to OECD countries over the period 1985 – 2013 shows that current debt limits are high for most of the OECD thanks to particularly low current interest rates. It shows also for some countries that current debt levels are not sustainable without a change in government behaviour as compared to the past. Most importantly, the framework illustrates the state contingent nature of debt limits and therefore the vulnerability of governments to a change in macroeconomic conditions and to market reactions.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1230
    Keywords: 2040 ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Finanzpolitik ; Makroökonomik ; Simulation ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The sharp rise in debt experienced by most OECD countries raises questions about the prudent debt level countries should target. It also raises questions about the fiscal frameworks needed to reach them and to accommodate cyclical fluctuations along the path towards a prudent debt target. The objective of this paper is to define long-run prudent debt targets for OECD countries and country-specific fiscal rules. To this end, a semi-structural macroeconomic model for OECD countries and primary balance reaction functions are estimated. The shocks derived from these estimations are used to assess uncertainties surrounding the development of macroeconomic variables. The model is simulated up to 2040 to derive the prudent debt target for each country and design country-specific fiscal rules.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1268
    Keywords: Auslandsinvestition ; Gravitationsmodell ; Regulierung ; Multinationales Unternehmen ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) are explored with gravity models, using a Poisson estimator and a linear estimator, both with fixed effects. The heterogeneity of product market regulations has a large and robust impact on cross-border investment: a reduction of regulatory divergence by one fifth could increase FDI by about 15%. In particular, the divergence of command and control regulations and of protection of incumbents (antitrust exemptions, entry barriers in networks and services) reduce cross-border investment. In addition, countries with higher employment protection have both less inward and less outward FDI, and there is some evidence that more complex regulatory procedures reduce inward FDI.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1159
    Keywords: EU-Binnenmarkt ; Markteintritt ; Netzwerkökonomik ; Arbeitsmobilität ; Wirtschaftsintegration ; EU-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The EU Single Market remains fragmented by complex and heterogeneous rules at the EU and national levels affecting trade, capital, including foreign direct investment, and labour mobility. Further development of the Single Market and removing barriers to external trade would bring substantial growth and employment gains by enhancing resource allocation in Europe, by generating economies of scale and by strengthening competition and hence incentives to innovate. Reforming regulation and other implicit barriers can also yield a double dividend: it would stimulate cross-border activities and support the necessary reallocation process within countries. Such reallocation can cause hardships, especially for the less-skilled workers who may not be able to compete. To deal with such problems, it is important to enhance active labour market policies and training. The Single Market would also benefit from better networks between countries that can be supported by a well-targeted infrastructure policy. New digital networks can be promoted by an appropriate regulatory framework to strengthen confidence and to promote fair competition. Regarding external trade, the first-best solution is clearly multilateral trade negotiations, but short of that external trade and investment barriers can be reduced with Free Trade Agreement negotiations with the United States and other partners. This Working Paper relates to the 2014 OECD Economic Survey of the European Union (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-european-union.htm).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1032
    Keywords: Einkommensverteilung ; Mindestlohn ; Umverteilung ; Luxemburg ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Luxembourg ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Luxembourg is a rich and fast-growing country. However, inequality of disposable incomes has trended up modestly over the past decades and relative poverty has risen reflecting mainly the rapid growth of high incomes. The relatively high inequality of market incomes is substantially reduced by large social transfers, but the risk of relative poverty still affects the most vulnerable, such as the young, the less educated, single parents and migrants. At the same time the generous transfer systems tend to reduce work incentives. There is significant room for improvement in the design of the tax and transfer system to enhance work incentives and improve targeting, particularly for the less skilled workers. Reforms that tackle poverty traps would both reduce inequality and improve the labour supply of residents. Strong activation policies are important in getting people to jobs. Job opportunities would also be enhanced by improving education outcomes for pupils from low socio-economic backgrounds and for secondgeneration immigrants. Reducing high repetition rates and better targeting education spending to schools with high shares of vulnerable students would help improve outcomes.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1031
    Keywords: 2011-2020 ; Ölpreis ; Prognose ; Erdöl ; Nachfrage ; Welt ; Energy ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Following a sharp drop amidst the global economic crisis and a subsequent recovery, the spot price of crude oil has been broadly stable for the past couple of years. This paper discusses the factors that drive oil demand and supply and, hence, the price of the resource. A set of oil demand equations is estimated for OECD and non-OECD countries, which is then combined with assumptions about the behaviour of supply to analyse the impact of a range of macroeconomic and policy scenarios on the future oil price path. The scenario analysis suggests that a return of world growth to slightly below pre-crisis rates would be consistent with an increase in the price of Brent crude to far above early-2012 levels by 2020. This increase would be mostly driven by higher demand from non-OECD economies – in particular China and India. The expected rise in the oil price is unlikely to be smooth. Sudden changes in the supply or demand of oil can have very large effects on the price in the short run.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
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