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  • MPI Ethno. Forsch.  (7)
  • DNB
  • München UB
  • Kalliope (Nachlässe)
  • Röhn, Oliver  (7)
  • Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.  (7)
  • Economics  (7)
  • Gesellschaft
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Economic resilience : the usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (30 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1250
    Keywords: Konjunktur ; Frühwarnsystem ; Vulnerabilitätsanalyse ; Coping-Strategie ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The global financial crisis and the high associated costs have revived the academic and policy interest in “early warning indicators” of crises. This paper provides empirical evidence on the usefulness of a new set of vulnerability indicators, proposed in a companion paper (Röhn et al., 2015), in predicting severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. To evaluate the usefulness of the indicators the signalling approach is employed, which takes into account policy makers’ preferences between missing crises and false alarms. Our empirical evidence shows that the majority of indicators would have helped to predict severe recessions in the 34 OECD economies and Latvia between 1970 and 2014. Indicators of global risks consistently outperform domestic indicators in terms of their usefulness, highlighting the importance of taking international developments into account when assessing a country’s vulnerabilities. In the domestic areas, indicators that measure asset market imbalances (real house and equity prices, house price-to-income and house price-to-rent ratios), also perform consistently well both in and out-of sample. Domestic credit related variables appear particularly useful in signalling upcoming banking crises and in predicting the global financial crisis out-of-sample. The results are broadly robust to different definitions of costly events, different forecasting horizons and different time and country samples.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jrxhgfqx3mv-en
    URL: Volltext
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
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    Economic resilience : a new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (40 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1249
    Keywords: Konjunktur ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Vulnerabilitätsanalyse ; Coping-Strategie ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The high costs of crises underscore the need to strengthen the resilience of economies, notably by assessing early on potential vulnerabilities that can lead to such costly events. This paper first discusses the source and nature of potential vulnerabilities in OECD countries that can lead to costly economic crises. Based on the most recent evidence from the early warning literature and lessons learned from the global financial crisis, it then proposes a new dataset of more than 70 vulnerability indicators that could be monitored to assess country risks in OECD economies. The indicators are grouped into five domestic areas: i) financial sector imbalances, ii) non-financial sector imbalances, iii) asset market imbalances, iv) public sector imbalances and v) external sector imbalances. An additional international “spillovers, contagion and global risks” category aims at capturing vulnerabilities that could transmit from one country to another through financial, trade or confidence channels. Evidence in a companion paper (Hermansen and Röhn, 2015) shows that the majority of the proposed indicators for which sufficiently long time series exists is helpful in predicting severe recessions and crises in the 34 OECD economies and Latvia between 1970 and 2014.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jrxhgjw54r8-en
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  • 3
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    Economic resilience : what role for policies? (2015)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (45 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1251
    Keywords: Finanzkrise ; Vulnerabilitätsanalyse ; Coping-Strategie ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The global financial crisis highlighted the importance of strengthening the resilience of our economies to adverse shocks. In this paper, we take stock of studies carried out primarily within, but also outside the OECD, to better understand the role of macroeconomic and structural policies in spurring or mitigating the vulnerabilities that can lead to costly shocks, as well as the role of policies in mitigating the shock impact and speeding the recovery. Then we offer tentative insights on how policies can be geared to address vulnerabilities early on, mitigate the impact of shocks and speed recoveries, as well as highlight possible trade-offs that exist across policy areas.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: PDF Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jrxhgf61q5j-en
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  • 4
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    Fostering inclusive growth in Turkey by promoting structural change in the business sector (2014)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (46 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1161
    Keywords: Unternehmensbesteuerung ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Informelle Wirtschaft ; Produktivität ; Strukturwandel ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Türkei ; Economics ; Industry and Services ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Turkey’s business sector dynamism has underpinned broad-based and inclusive growth in the 2000s. However, the business sector is highly segmented, with a relatively small core of modern high-productivity corporations, and myriad small, less formal and low-productivity entities. This hampers efficient resource allocation and tends to entrench social inequalities. It also makes it difficult to build on-the-job human capital for the large number of low-skilled. This segmentation needs to be overcome to raise productivity in the informal, low-skill and low-productivity sector, and to facilitate resource transfers from low to higher productivity businesses. This ought to be achieved by aligning Turkey’s formal regulatory and tax framework with OECD best practice, rather than through “second-best” arrangements where noncompliance with rules co-exists with selective subsidies to parts of the formal sector. Labour market and business taxation reforms are particularly important to enable all categories of enterprises to operate flexibly on a rule-based, level playing field and to achieve productivity enhancing and socially inclusive restructuring.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jxx0554v07c-en
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  • 5
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    Reducing macroeconomic imbalances in Turkey (2014)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (33 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1160
    Keywords: Finanzpolitik ; Wettbewerb ; Finanzmarktregulierung ; Leistungsbilanz ; Geldpolitik ; Sparen ; Türkei ; Economics ; Turkey ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Turkey recovered swiftly from the global financial crisis but sizeable macroeconomic imbalances arose in the process. High consumer price inflation and a wide current account deficit are sources of vulnerability. Even though below-potential growth helps rebalancing and disinflation, these imbalances endure. The financial sector still looks resilient thanks to buffers built up mainly prior to the financial crisis. However, private sector balance sheet risks have gained prominence as leverage increased. Macroeconomic and structural policy levers need to steer a passage between robust but externally unsustainable growth and externally viable but low growth. Monetary policy needs to bring inflation and inflation expectations closer to target. Macroprudential policies could more systematically lean against capital inflows and credit cycles to reduce private sector balance sheet vulnerabilities. The fiscal stance is broadly appropriate, but compliance with a multi-year general government spending ceiling would help avoid pro-cyclical loosening in case of revenue surprises and help boost domestic saving. Overall, policies should help reduce the risk of disruptions in capital flows as monetary policy stimulus is being withdrawn in the United States.
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5jxx055pjf0x-en
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  • 6
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    Responding to key wellbeing challenges in Austria (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (42 S.) , graph. Darst., Kt.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1080
    Keywords: Familie ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Einwanderung ; Umweltpolitik ; Verkehrsinfrastruktur ; Gesundheit ; Suburbanisierung ; Österreich ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Austria ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Important challenges for the future of Austrian well-being arise from demographic and environmental trends. The ageing of the population calls for a fair balance between life-time pension contributions and entitlements, drawing on the recent pension reform. Such progress will allow Austrians to make more informed choices between the length of their work and contribution periods and retirement length and income according to their preferences, without threatening fiscal sustainability. With female labour force participation rising, family policies should help reconcile equality of opportunity within families by promoting the availability, affordability and quality of support services. A growing share of immigrant groups with low human capital calls for remedial policies to preserve social cohesion. Environmental pressures arise from urban sprawl and the strong expansion of road transport. Turning around these trends will require more appropriate pricing of the externalities and better regional development policies to foster denser settlements that are well connected to public transport. This entails a need to strengthen coordination between different government layers and better integration of regional development with transport and housing policies. This Working Paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Survey of Austria (http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/austria-2013.htm).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k42210gg9g5-en
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  • 7
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    Austria's well-being goes beyond GDP (2013)
    Paris : OECD, Economics Dep.
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (58 S.) , graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers 1079
    Keywords: Familie ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Einwanderung ; Umweltpolitik ; Verkehrsinfrastruktur ; Gesundheit ; Suburbanisierung ; Österreich ; Social Issues/Migration/Health ; Economics ; Austria ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Arbeitspapier ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Austria enjoys strong material well-being and high quality of life. Steady convergence with top GDP per capita levels translated into decisive improvements in household disposable incomes while significant redistribution has ensured low income inequality and poverty. This has been combined with gains in leisure time, especially time spent in retirement, low unemployment, high environmental standards, rising life expectancy, a well-functioning social support network and high subjective well-being. This performance was achieved with a unique combination of supportive conditions for a dynamic business sector, priority for family based care, a wide supply of public services, and a well-functioning social partnership. Particularly remarkable for a small open economy has been the degree of stability, which may have contributed to Austria’s high quality of life. However, a number of weaknesses also exist. Older, unskilled and in particular people with migrant background, have lower labour market attachments. Outcomes in education and health care are subject to inequalities. Family services are still mainly carried out by women, who have closed the gap in education attainment with men but face tensions between work and family responsibilities and a high wage gap. The gaps experienced by people with migrant background are in several dimensions larger than in the average OECD country. This Working Paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Survey of Austria (http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/austria-2013.htm).
    Note: Zsfassung in franz. Sprache , Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader.
    DOI: 10.1787/5k422133hjnv-en
    URL: Volltext
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