ABSTRACT

As our society confronts the impacts of globalization and global systemic risks—such as financial contagion, climate change, and epidemics—what can studies of the past tell us about our present and future? How Worlds Collapse offers case studies of societies that either collapsed or overcame cataclysmic adversity. The authors in this volume find commonalities between past civilizations and our current society, tracing patterns, strategies, and early warning signs that can inform decision-making today. While today’s world presents unique challenges, many mechanisms, dynamics, and fundamental challenges to the foundations of civilization have been consistent throughout history—highlighting essential lessons for the future.

part Section 1|90 pages

Theory and Insights of Historical Collapse

chapter 1|20 pages

Globalization and Fragility

A Systems Approach to Collapse

chapter 2|12 pages

How Scholars Explain Collapse

chapter 3|24 pages

Diminishing Returns on Extraction

How Inequality and Extractive Hierarchy Create Fragility

part Section 2|166 pages

Historical and Archaeology Investigations of Collapse

chapter 5|11 pages

“Mind the Gap”

The 1177 BCE Late Bronze Age Collapse and Some Preliminary Thoughts on Its Immediate Aftermath

chapter 6|16 pages

The End of “Peak Empire”

The Collapse of the Roman, Han, and Jin Empires

chapter 7|22 pages

Collapse and Non-collapse

The Case of Byzantium ca. 650–800 CE

chapter 8|21 pages

Fluctuat Nec Mergitur

Seven Centuries of Pueblo Crisis and Resilience

chapter 9|24 pages

Episodes of the Feathered Serpent

Aztec Imperialism and Collapse

chapter 10|15 pages

The Black Death

Collapse, Resilience, and Transformation

chapter 11|30 pages

The Cases of Novgorod and Muscovy

Using Systems Thinking to Understand Historical Civilizational Response to Exogenous Threats

chapter 12|23 pages

Resilience of the Simple?

Lessons from the Blockade of Leningrad

part Section 3|54 pages

Systemic Collapse Insights from Ecology, Climate, and the Environment

part Section 4|104 pages

Future Systemic Collapse and Quantitative Modeling

chapter 16|18 pages

Producing Collapse

Nuclear Weapons as Preparation to End Civilization 1

chapter 17|25 pages

From Wild West to Mad Max

Transition in Civilizations

chapter 19|22 pages

The Lifespan of Civilizations

Do Societies “Age,” or Is Collapse Just Bad Luck?

chapter 20|20 pages

Multipath Forecasting

The Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis