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Leviathan Staggering

A Quantitative Analysis of the State’s Coercive Capacity and Intrastate Violence

Hess, Julius

from the series Sozialwissenschaftliche Studien des Zentrums für Militärgeschichte und Sozialwissenschaften der Bundeswehr, volume 21

Published by Berliner Wissenschafts-Verlag, 2020

Overview
Table of contents

Abstract

From Afghanistan to Africa’s Sahel region, from the Congo to Central America, deadly violence within state borders is a major threat to peace and security in the contemporary world. Today, internal violence involving rebels, terrorist groups, or organized crime has a higher death toll than wars between nations. Meanwhile, rates of violent deaths have reached historical lows in other parts of the world. Why are some countries ravaged by internal strife while others enjoy lasting stability?°°Building on a wide variety of data, this study provides fresh perspectives on the question of how peace within nations may be achieved. It explores Thomas Hobbes’ argument that it takes a militarily powerful state to overcome the scourge of violence and asks whether this helps us understand conflict in the contemporary world. The findings show that recent efforts at stabilizing violence-ridden nations, such as the multinational missions in Mali or Afghanistan, are likely to run into serious dilemmas.

Author information

Julius Hess

Keywords

Details

Leviathan Staggering

Berliner Wissenschafts-Verlag

395 Pages

ISBN 978-3-8305-5063-1 (Print)

ISBN 978-3-8305-4228-5 (eBook)

First published: 30.10.2020

https://doi.org/10.35998/9783830542285

Content (108 Chapter)

Chapter

Contents
1. Chapter
  
  List of Tables
2. Chapter
  
  List of Maps and Figures
3. Chapter
  
  List of Frequent Abbreviations
Chapter

Acknowledgments
Chapter

Foreword
Chapter

1 Introduction
Chapter

2 Theoretical and Empirical Approaches
1. Chapter
  
  2.1 The Hobbesian Approach to Intrastate Violence
  1. Chapter
    
    2.1.1 The Rationalist Approach
  2. Chapter
    
    2.1.2 Predation
  3. Chapter
    
    2.1.3 Security Dilemmas, Retaliation, and Preemptive Violence
  4. Chapter
    
    2.1.4 The Sociological Approach
  5. Chapter
    
    2.1.5 Summary
2. Chapter
  
  2.2 The Great Decline: Violence in History
  1. Chapter
    
    2.2.1 The Distant Past
  2. Chapter
    
    2.2.2 Historical Evidence on Violence in Empires and Early States
  3. Chapter
    
    2.2.3 Homicidal Violence in Emerging Modern States
  4. Chapter
    
    2.2.4 Hobbesian and Non-Hobbesian Interpretations
  5. Chapter
    
    2.2.5 Summary
3. Chapter
  
  2.3 The Great Surge: Coercive Capacity in History
  1. Chapter
    
    2.3.1 Military Competition and State-Building in Early Modern Europe
  2. Chapter
    
    2.3.2 The Surge: Money, Men, Materiel, and the Military
  3. Chapter
    
    2.3.3 Monopolizing Violence
  4. Chapter
    
    2.3.4 Non-European State-Building
  5. Chapter
    
    2.3.5 The World Today: Strong Leviathans, Weak Leviathans
  6. Chapter
    
    2.3.6 Summary
4. Chapter
  
  2.4 Quantitative Research on Coercive Capacity and Intrastate Violence
  1. Chapter
    
    2.4.1 Homicidal Violence
  2. Chapter
    
    2.4.2 Civil War
  3. Chapter
    
    2.4.3 Comprehensive Approaches to Intrastate Violence
  4. Chapter
    
    2.4.4 Summary
5. Chapter
  
  2.5 The Research Gap
Chapter

3 Theoretical Framework
1. Chapter
  
  3.1 Intrastate Violence
  1. Chapter
    
    3.1.1 Lethal Physical Violence
  2. Chapter
    
    3.1.2 Delimitations: Territoriality, Legality, and Legitimacy
  3. Chapter
    
    3.1.3 Violence Across Space and Time: Fatality Rates
2. Chapter
  
  3.2 The State and Coercive Capacity
  1. Chapter
    
    3.2.1 The State as a Unit of Analysis
  2. Chapter
    
    3.2.2 Coercive Capacity
  3. Chapter
    
    3.2.3 Summary
3. Chapter
  
  3.3 The State’s Coercive Capacity and Intrastate Violence: Hypotheses
  1. Chapter
    
    3.3.1 The Continuum of Violence
  2. Chapter
    
    3.3.2 Sub-Dimensions of Intrastate Violence
  3. Chapter
    
    3.3.3 Hypotheses
Chapter

4 Research Design
1. Chapter
  
  4.1 Population of Cases, Data Structure, and Guidelines
2. Chapter
  
  4.2 Measuring Intrastate Violence (Dependent Variables)
  1. Chapter
    
    4.2.1 Political Violence
  2. Chapter
    
    4.2.2 Non-Political, Homicidal Violence
  3. Chapter
    
    4.2.3 Total Intrastate Violence
  4. Chapter
    
    4.2.4 Overview and Discussion of Data
3. Chapter
  
  4.3 Measuring Coercive Capacity (Independent Variables)
4. Chapter
  
  4.4 Control Variables
  1. Chapter
    
    4.4.1 Economic Development and Inequality
  2. Chapter
    
    4.4.2 Non-Coercive State Capacity: Legitimacy, Bureaucracy, Taxation
  3. Chapter
    
    4.4.3 Democracy and Political System
  4. Chapter
    
    4.4.4 Population Structure and Social Disorganization
5. Chapter
  
  4.5 Methods
  1. Chapter
    
    4.5.1 Time-Series Cross-Section Data and Lagged Dependent Variables
  2. Chapter
    
    4.5.2 Non-Stationarity, Heteroscedasticity and Between Effects
  3. Chapter
    
    4.5.3 Reverse Causality and the Structural Approach
  4. Chapter
    
    4.5.4 The Fundamental Model of Intrastate Violence
Chapter

5 Results
1. Chapter
  
  5.1 Bivariate Analyses
2. Chapter
  
  5.2 Assessing the Fundamental Model of Intrastate Violence
3. Chapter
  
  5.3 Robustness Checks and Extensions
  1. Chapter
    
    5.3.1 Temporal Dynamics and Causality
  2. Chapter
    
    5.3.2 Omitted Variable Bias and Additional Controls
  3. Chapter
    
    5.3.3 Missing Values, Regional Bias, and Outliers
  4. Chapter
    
    5.3.4 Temporal Within-Variation on the State-Level
  5. Chapter
    
    5.3.5 Properties of the Dependent Variable
  6. Chapter
    
    5.3.6 Interactions: Democracy, Economy, and Coercive Capacity
  7. Chapter
    
    5.3.7 Military Intervention, Peacekeeping, and Intrastate Violence
4. Chapter
  
  5.4 Sub-Dimensions of Coercive Capacity and Intrastate Violence
  1. Chapter
    
    5.4.1 Sub-Dimensions of the Coercive Capacity Index
  2. Chapter
    
    5.4.2 Centralization, Police, and Paramilitary
  3. Chapter
    
    5.4.3 Conventional Proxies for Coercive Capacity
5. Chapter
  
  5.5 Coercive Capacity and Sub-Dimensions of Intrastate Violence
  1. Chapter
    
    5.5.1 Homicide
  2. Chapter
    
    5.5.2 State-Based Armed Conflict and One-Sided Violence
Chapter

6 Conclusion
1. Chapter
  
  6.1 Summary of Results
2. Chapter
  
  6.2 Contributions to the Understanding of Intrastate Violence
  1. Chapter
    
    6.2.1 A Hobbesian World
  2. Chapter
    
    6.2.2 Bridging the Gap Between Political Science and Sociology
  3. Chapter
    
    6.2.3 Progress in Measuring Coercive Capacity
  4. Chapter
    
    6.2.4 Reconsiderations and Corrections
3. Chapter
  
  6.3 Limitations of the Approach
  1. Chapter
    
    6.3.1 Units of Analysis, Theoretical Concepts, and Proxies
  2. Chapter
    
    6.3.2 Methods
4. Chapter
  
  6.4 Practical Implications: Military Aid and Intervention
  1. Chapter
    
    6.4.1 Non-Political Violence and Domestic Security
  2. Chapter
    
    6.4.2 Aiding the Military
  3. Chapter
    
    6.4.3 Perfect Storms
  4. Chapter
    
    6.4.4 Dilemmas of State-Building
  5. Chapter
    
    6.4.5 Aid or Intervention?
  6. Chapter
    
    6.4.6 A Better World
Chapter

References
Chapter

Appendix

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Leviathan Staggering

A Quantitative Analysis of the State’s Coercive Capacity and Intrastate Violence

Overview

Abstract

Author information

Keywords

Details

Related content

Table of contents

Content (108 Chapter)

Contents

List of Tables

List of Maps and Figures

List of Frequent Abbreviations

Acknowledgments

Foreword

1 Introduction

2 Theoretical and Empirical Approaches

2.1 The Hobbesian Approach to Intrastate Violence

2.1.1 The Rationalist Approach

2.1.2 Predation

2.1.3 Security Dilemmas, Retaliation, and Preemptive Violence

2.1.4 The Sociological Approach

2.1.5 Summary

2.2 The Great Decline: Violence in History

2.2.1 The Distant Past

2.2.2 Historical Evidence on Violence in Empires and Early States

2.2.3 Homicidal Violence in Emerging Modern States

2.2.4 Hobbesian and Non-Hobbesian Interpretations

2.2.5 Summary

2.3 The Great Surge: Coercive Capacity in History

2.3.1 Military Competition and State-Building in Early Modern Europe

2.3.2 The Surge: Money, Men, Materiel, and the Military

2.3.3 Monopolizing Violence

2.3.4 Non-European State-Building

2.3.5 The World Today: Strong Leviathans, Weak Leviathans

2.3.6 Summary

2.4 Quantitative Research on Coercive Capacity and Intrastate Violence

2.4.1 Homicidal Violence

2.4.2 Civil War

2.4.3 Comprehensive Approaches to Intrastate Violence

2.4.4 Summary

2.5 The Research Gap

3 Theoretical Framework

3.1 Intrastate Violence

3.1.1 Lethal Physical Violence

3.1.2 Delimitations: Territoriality, Legality, and Legitimacy

3.1.3 Violence Across Space and Time: Fatality Rates

3.2 The State and Coercive Capacity

3.2.1 The State as a Unit of Analysis

3.2.2 Coercive Capacity

3.2.3 Summary

3.3 The State’s Coercive Capacity and Intrastate Violence: Hypotheses

3.3.1 The Continuum of Violence

3.3.2 Sub-Dimensions of Intrastate Violence

3.3.3 Hypotheses

4 Research Design

4.1 Population of Cases, Data Structure, and Guidelines

4.2 Measuring Intrastate Violence (Dependent Variables)

4.2.1 Political Violence

4.2.2 Non-Political, Homicidal Violence

4.2.3 Total Intrastate Violence

4.2.4 Overview and Discussion of Data

4.3 Measuring Coercive Capacity (Independent Variables)

4.3.1 Financial, Human, and Material Resources of the Military

4.3.2 The Coercive Capacity Index: Construction and Discussion

4.3.3 Centralization, Police, Paramilitary, and Conventional Proxies

4.4 Control Variables

4.4.1 Economic Development and Inequality

4.4.2 Non-Coercive State Capacity: Legitimacy, Bureaucracy, Taxation

4.4.3 Democracy and Political System

4.4.4 Population Structure and Social Disorganization

4.5 Methods

4.5.1 Time-Series Cross-Section Data and Lagged Dependent Variables

4.5.2 Non-Stationarity, Heteroscedasticity and Between Effects

4.5.3 Reverse Causality and the Structural Approach

4.5.4 The Fundamental Model of Intrastate Violence

5 Results

5.1 Bivariate Analyses