1887

OECD Trade Policy Papers

This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected trade policy studies prepared for use within the OECD.

NB. No. 1 to No. 139 were released under the previous series title OECD Trade Policy Working Papers.

English

To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?

Trade deficits and surpluses are sometimes attributed to intentionally low or high exchange rate levels. The impact of exchange rate levels on trade has been much debated but the large body of existing empirical literature does not suggest an unequivocally clear picture of the trade impacts of changes in exchange rates. The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade also does not benefit from a clear theoretical cause-effect relationship. This study examines the impact of exchange rates and their volatility on trade flows in China, the Euro area and the United States in two broadly defined sectors, agriculture on the one hand and manufacturing and mining on the other. It finds that exchange volatility impacts trade flows only slightly. Exchange rate levels, on the other hand, affect trade in both agriculture and manufacturing and mining sectors but do not explain in their entirety the trade imbalances in the three countries examined.

English

Keywords: short-run effects, GARCH volatility, exchange rates, depreciation, trade deficit, currency movements, euro, long-run effects, trade, trade in agriculture, US dollar, yuan, real exchange rates, exchange hedging, exchange rate appreciation, volatility
JEL: O24: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Development Planning and Policy / Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy; Q17: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agriculture in International Trade; F31: International Economics / International Finance / Foreign Exchange; F01: International Economics / General / Global Outlook
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error