Uncertainty in ex-ante poverty and income distribution : insights from output growth and natural resource country typologies / Fabian Mendez Ramos

Englisch

Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Research Group, May 2019

1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten) : Illustrationen

Erscheint auch als: Druck-Ausgabe- Mendez Ramos, Fabian: Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution: Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies. - Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2019

DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8841

This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015-2030. However, absolute poverty is likely to increase by 2030 in resource-output oriented countries and economies with low rates of output per capita growth. Countries with high growth rates of output are expected to achieve poverty levels below 3 percent by 2030. Global and country aggregations show a decrease in income inequality by 2030; though, significant downside risks could increase wealth inequality in high- and low-output growth economies by 2030. Substantial uncertainty, as measured by the variability of the simulated outcomes, exists on shared prosperity gaps across the studied country typologies

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