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Abstract: The present study analyzes the role of collective remittances in promoting democratic consolidation amid the decentralization of political decision making in Mexico. Specifically, I analyze how the remittance-matching program 3x1 para Migrantes conditions municipal politics in the state of Guanajuato, Mexico. To this end, I evaluate 3x1 para Migrantes investment patterns across Guanajuato's forty-six municipalities for the period 2001-2011. The results of my study indicate that, under the right conditions, remittances channeled through the 3x1 program stimulate higher levels of voter participation and in this manner have the potential to contribute to democratic growth. However, data patterns also indicate that 3x1 investments share a positive correlation with election cycles, demonstrating that local authorities may use the 3x1 program to garner political support. In this respect, my analysis calls into question the depth of democratic consolidation at the municipal level in the state of Guanajuato.
In the early 1980s Mexico began a tentative transition toward democratic governance. Since then, although the nation is far from a full-fledged democracy, local and national elections have become increasingly competitive, and everyday politics are arguably more transparent. This process culminated in the 2000 presidential elections in which Vicente Fox broke the Institutional Revolutionary Party's (PRI) seventy-one-year hold on the executive office. During this same period increased migration to the United States stimulated the flow of migrant remittances to households across Mexico. By 2007 remittances flowing into Mexico surpassed $26 billion dollars or roughly 2.5 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, or GDP (Banco de México 2007). The intersection of political transition toward democracy with mass emigration to the United States presents an intriguing question: To what degree do migrants-and the money they send home- influence local politics in Mexico?
Mexico presents a particularly opportune case study for exploring the relationship between emigration and politics. A nascent literature addresses this experience (Aparecio and Meseguer 2012; Burgess 2005; Duquette-Rury 2011, 2014; Duquette-Rury and Bada 2013; Pérez-Armendáriz and Crow 2010; Pfutze 2012; Smith and Bakker 2008; Tyburski 2012); still, researchers have yet to empirically analyze the relationship between emigration and politics within the context of decentralization. In this article, I address this gap by evaluating the depth of democratic consolidation amid the decentralization of political decision making in Guanajuato, Mexico....