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Methods of Strategic Trade Analysis

Data-Driven Approaches to Detect Illicit Dual-Use Trade

  • Book
  • © 2023

Overview

Authors:
  1. Christopher Nelson

    1. Strategic Trade Control Research Group, Jersey City, USA

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  • Provides a hands-on, practical guide to identifying trade in WMD-related materials and equipment
  • Puts current and cutting edge data analysis techniques in the context of non-proliferation and export control efforts
  • Provides numerous examples demonstrating the analytic techniques that can be applied by practitioners

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Table of contents (12 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xvii
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  2. Introduction

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 1-3

  3. Introduction to Strategic Trade Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 5-23

  4. Fundamental Systems of Strategic Trade Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 25-42

  5. Introduction to STA Methodologies

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 43-45

  6. Scripting an Illicit Strategic Trade Transaction

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 47-56

  7. Strategic Trade Risk Assessment

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 57-73

  8. Mirror Statistics

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 75-90

  9. Market Share Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 91-99

  10. Transshipment and Re-export Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 101-112

  11. Machine Learning for Strategic Trade Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 113-146

  12. Network Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 147-169

  13. Applying Strategic Trade Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson
    Pages 171-183
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Keywords

About this book

This book addresses ways that governments, international organizations, and other stakeholders can utilize data to uncover illicit trade in materials and equipment that could be used to support chemical, biological, nuclear, and advanced conventional weapons systems. Key concepts of strategic trade are introduced, including examples of strategic goods and their potential uses in weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and weapons systems, the interplay between the Harmonized System and strategic trade control regimes, and the data available for analysis in the field. Innovative, yet practical methodologies to analyze strategic trade cover the use of crime scripts, risk assessment indicators, mirror statistics, market share analysis, and transshipment and re-export analysis.

There are also chapters on leading-edge techniques involving machine learning and network analysis that have shown promise in other areas of crime and illicit trade investigations. Each chapter provides step-by-step instructions on applying the technique, numerous case studies and examples, and discussions of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This volume is designed to provide all types of analysts with practical pathways for understanding, detecting, and disrupting illicit procurement of materials and equipment needed to produce WMDs and advanced weapons.

Authors and Affiliations

  • Strategic Trade Control Research Group, Jersey City, USA

    Christopher Nelson

About the author

Christopher Nelson has over 14 years of experience in strategic trade analysis, export control regulations, fraud detection, and industrial capabilities research. He has served as a Safeguards Information Analyst at the International Atomic Energy Agency and a Trade and Industry Analyst at the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security. He holds a B.A. in International Studies and Mathematics from American University and an M.A. in War Studies from King's College London.

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