OECD Journal on Budgeting
The OECD Journal on Budgeting is published three times per year. It draws on the best of the recent work of the OECD Committee of Senior Budget Officials (SBO), as well as special contributions from finance ministries, academics and experts in the field and makes it available to a wider community in an accessible format. The journal provides insight on leading-edge institutional arrangements, systems and instruments for the allocation and management of resources in the public sector.
Also available in: French
- 3 times a year
- ISSN: 16812336 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/16812336
How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts?
Forecasts of economic variables like GDP, inflation and unemployment are the starting points for budget planning. Most OECD countries have designated an independent fiscal institutions to scrutinise or endorse the economic forecasts prepared by finance ministries. Although external assessments of past forecast errors can help uncover systematic bias or underperformance in official forecasts, there are several conceptual and practical problems with doing so that limit their usefulness. This paper describes the limitations of ex post forecast assessments and offers some suggestions on how independent fiscal institutions can add the most value in providing them.
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