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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 22 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.515
    Schlagwort(e): Economics ; Canada
    Kurzfassung: The objective of this paper is to develop a short-term indicator-based model to predict quarterly GDP in Canada by efficiently exploiting all available monthly information. To this aim, monthly forecasting equations are estimated using the GDP series published every month by Statistics Canada as well as other monthly indicators. The procedures are automated and the model can be run whenever major monthly data are released, allowing the appropriate choice of the model according to the information set available. The most important gain from this procedure is for the current-quarter forecast when one or two months of GDP data are available, with all monthly models estimated in the paper outperforming a standard quarterly autoregressive model in terms of size of errors. The use of indicators also appears to improve forecasting performance, especially when an average of indicator-based models is used. Real-time forecasting performance of the average model appear to be good, with an apparent stability of the estimates from one update to the next, despite the extensive use of monthly data. The latter result should nonetheless be interpreted with caution and will need to be re-assessed when more data become available.
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 105 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.440
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse international trade developments. New panel data estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and exchange rate pass-through into trade prices are reported for both OECD and non-OECD economies. The model set out has already been used successfully to monitor the global consistency of the international trade projections in the Economic Outlook.
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 34 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.730
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: This paper examines the effect of economic crises on structural unemployment using an Autoregressive Distributed Lags model and accounting for the role of institutional settings. Analysing an unbalanced panel of 30 OECD economies from 1970 to 2008, we found that downturns have, on average, a significant positive impact on the level of structural unemployment rate. The maximum impact varies with the severity of the downturn. Institutions (such as Employment Protection Legislation, average replacement ratio and product market regulation) influence both the extent of the initial shock and the adjustment pattern in the aftermath of a downturn.
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  • 4
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.437
    Schlagwort(e): Economics ; New Zealand
    Kurzfassung: The paper examines the current state of competition in a number of sectors that are important for the economy. Because of the country’s small size and isolation, the analysis focuses on barriers to entry, investment and external trade, rather than some standard indicators of competition stance. The competition law and institutions are generally well-conceived, although high-profile litigation about mergers and market-power problems hasstretched their capacities and until recently, diverted attention from enforcement against price fixing. Overall, markets appear to function well in New Zealand, but progress towards liberalisation seems recently to have lost momentum. In particular, improvement could be made in three main areas: in the energy sector, lifting current barriers to investment and developing forward markets are necessary to ensure the economy will be able to cope with long-term challenges; in telecommunications markets, concerns have been mounting regarding high prices and slow deployment of broadband; and in the public sector, there is scope for further use of private delivery for public services and reducing state ownership, especially in potentially competitive markets. Some adjustments to the regulatory framework and policies in a number of other sectors would also be beneficial. This Working Paper relates to the 2005 OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/nz).
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  • 5
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 25 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.648
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: This paper examines the short-term distributional effects of a number of tax and labour market reforms in the euro area, drawing on simulations using a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium model. A heterogeneous household sector with two groups of consumers is considered. The first group maximises intertemporal utility over an infinite horizon in the presence of habit persistence. The second group is liquidity constrained and has no access to financial markets for intertemporal income transfers. It thus spends its disposable income entirely on current consumption. Although the examined reforms are estimated to boost aggregate consumption and output immediately after implementation, they have sizeable distributional effects. In particular, liquidity-constrained households may incur transitional losses after a cut in the benefit replacement ratio. Lowering employment and/or price adjustment costs could markedly reduce these short-term costs. A suitable compensation scheme could also reduce the uneven distribution of transitional losses, but at the expense of lower aggregate gains in the long run.
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 37 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.557
    Schlagwort(e): Economics ; New Zealand
    Kurzfassung: After the radical reforms undertaken in the 1980s, the NZ tax system has long been regarded as one of most efficient within the OECD, and is based on a comprehensive income approach. Looking forward, the country will require a tax regime that helps the economy to continue raising living standards, supports savings and investment and copes with emerging pressures such as increasing geographic mobility of labour and capital. In this context, it will be important to have in place a clear long-term direction for the tax system to guide reforms. There are at least two broad options that are worth considering: adapting the system within a comprehensive income approach or adopting a dual income tax system. Future changes to the tax system need to be consistent with the approach ultimately adopted. In any case, a number of limitations of current tax bases will need to be tackled. This Working Paper relates to the 2007 OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/nz).
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  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 35 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.898
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 23 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.901
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.899
    Bibliothek Standort Signatur Band/Heft/Jahr Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 20 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Serie: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.699
    Schlagwort(e): Economics
    Kurzfassung: The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial crises on potential output. For this purpose a univariate autoregressive growth equation is estimated on an unbalanced panel of OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2007. Our results suggest that the occurrence of a financial crisis negatively and permanently affects potential output. In particular, financial crises are estimated to lower potential output by around 1.5 to 2.4% on average. The magnitude of the effect increases with the severity of the crisis. The occurrence of a deep crisis is found to decrease potential output by nearly 4%, almost twice the amount observed for the average of crises. These results are robust to the use of an alternative measure of potential output, changes in the methodology and in the sample periods.
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