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  • Gonzales, Frédéric  (1)
  • Yotov, Yoto V...  (1)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Nowcasting aggregate services trade (2021)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 p.)
    Series Statement: OECD Trade Policy Papers no.253
    Keywords: Trade
    Abstract: The increasing importance of services trade in the global economy contrasts with the lack of timely data to monitor recent developments. The nowcasting models developed in this paper are aimed at providing insights into current changes in total services trade, as recorded in monthly statistics of the G7 countries. Combining machine-learning techniques and dynamic factor models, the methodology exploits traditional data and Google Trends search data. No single model outperforms the others, but a weighted average of the best models combining machine-learning with dynamic factor models seems to be a promising avenue. The best models improve one-step ahead predictive performance relative to a simple benchmark by 30-35% on average across G7 countries and trade flows. Nowcasting models are estimated to have captured about 67% of the fall in services exports due to the COVID-19 shock and 60% of the fall in imports on average across G7 economies.
    DOI: 10.1787/0ad7d27c-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Shedding light on the drivers of services tradability over two decades (2022)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (44 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Trade Policy Papers no.264
    Keywords: Trade
    Abstract: Services have become significantly more tradable in the first two decades of the 21st century. This paper documents that trade costs for financial services, communication services and business services fell by between 30% and 60% between 2000 and 2019. Information and communication technology and growth of air traffic have acted as key drivers of this development. While there is some variation across sectors, the analysis suggests that these two determinants jointly account for a quarter to half of the aggregate decline in trade costs for services during this 20-year period. Furthermore, services provisions in regional trade agreements (RTAs) can explain between 3% and 14% of the reduction in trade costs for communications services and financial and insurance services. These findings demonstrate the importance of whole-of-government strategies to promote services trade competitiveness, inter alia market access, regulatory reform, as well as investment in physical and digital infrastructure and adoption of new technologies.
    DOI: 10.1787/d5f3c149-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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