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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD trade policy papers no. 237
    Keywords: Trade ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This report casts light on the impact of regulatory restrictions on the movement of people across international borders on services trade costs. Such restrictions were implemented on health and safety grounds following the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020. The analysis relies on several illustrative scenarios in which all the countries are assumed to close their borders to passengers, but leave freight trade open. Services trade costs are estimated to increase by an average of 12% of export values across sectors and countries in the medium term in such a hypothetical scenario. The analysis identifies a large variability in the increase in services-trade costs across sectors and across countries, reflecting the stringency of initial regulations and the relative importance of business travel and labour mobility to international services trade.
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (70 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Trade Policy Papers no.257
    Keywords: Dienstleistungshandel ; Handelshemmnisse ; Handelseffekt ; Großbritannien ; Trade ; Industry and Services ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift
    Abstract: Services play a more important role in trade and employment in the United Kingdom than in most other OECD countries. The UK services sector is supported by an open and transparent trade regime, policies that support competition and innovation, and regulatory transparency that facilitates the creation of new services businesses and start-ups. That said, certain barriers to services trade remain. This report sheds light on the role of services trade in the UK economy, describing recent trends and highlighting future challenges, and explores policy options to support a sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (55 p.)
    Series Statement: OECD Trade Policy Papers no.253
    Keywords: Trade
    Abstract: The increasing importance of services trade in the global economy contrasts with the lack of timely data to monitor recent developments. The nowcasting models developed in this paper are aimed at providing insights into current changes in total services trade, as recorded in monthly statistics of the G7 countries. Combining machine-learning techniques and dynamic factor models, the methodology exploits traditional data and Google Trends search data. No single model outperforms the others, but a weighted average of the best models combining machine-learning with dynamic factor models seems to be a promising avenue. The best models improve one-step ahead predictive performance relative to a simple benchmark by 30-35% on average across G7 countries and trade flows. Nowcasting models are estimated to have captured about 67% of the fall in services exports due to the COVID-19 shock and 60% of the fall in imports on average across G7 economies.
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