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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Assessing Forecast Uncertainty : An Information Bayesian Approach (2017)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (39 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mendez-Ramos, Fabian Assessing Forecast Uncertainty: An Information Bayesian Approach
    Abstract: Regardless of the field, forecasts are widely used and yet assessments of the embedded uncertainty-the magnitude of the downside and upside risks of the prediction itself-are often missing. Particularly in policy-making and investment, accounting for these risks around baseline predictions is of outstanding importance for making better and more informed decisions. This paper introduces a procedure to assess risks associated with a random phenomenon. The methodology assigns probability distributions to baseline-projections of an economic or social random variable-for example gross domestic product growth, inflation, population growth, poverty headcount, and so forth-combining ex-post and ex-ante market information. The generated asymmetric density forecasts use information derived from surveys on expectations and implied statistics of predictive models. The methodology also decomposes the variance and skewness of the predictive distribution accounting for the shares of selected risk factors. The procedure relies on a Bayesian information-theoretical approach, which allows the inclusion of judgment and forecaster expertise. For reliability purposes and transparency, the paper also evaluates the constructed density forecasts assigning a score. The continuous ranked probability score is used to assess the prediction accuracy of elicited density forecasts. The selected score incentivizes the forecaster to provide its true and best predictive distribution. An empirical application to forecast world gross domestic product growth is used to test the Bayesian entropy methodology. Predictive variance and skewness of world gross domestic product growth are associated with ex-ante information of four risk factors: term spreads, absolute deviations of headline inflation targets, energy prices, and the Standard and Poor's 500 index prices. The Bayesian entropy technique is benchmarked with naive-generated density forecasts that utilize information from historical forecast errors. The results show that the Bayesian density forecasts outperform the naive-generated benchmark predictions, illustrating the value added of the introduced methodology
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8165
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Uncertainty in ex-ante poverty and income distribution : insights from output growth and natural resource country typologies (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Research Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8841
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Mendez Ramos, Fabian Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution: Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015-2030. However, absolute poverty is likely to increase by 2030 in resource-output oriented countries and economies with low rates of output per capita growth. Countries with high growth rates of output are expected to achieve poverty levels below 3 percent by 2030. Global and country aggregations show a decrease in income inequality by 2030; though, significant downside risks could increase wealth inequality in high- and low-output growth economies by 2030. Substantial uncertainty, as measured by the variability of the simulated outcomes, exists on shared prosperity gaps across the studied country typologies
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8841
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth : An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (61 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Loayza, Norman V Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth: An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model
    Keywords: Commodity Price Fluctuation ; Composition of Government Expenditure ; Development Research Group ; Economic Adjustment and Lending ; Energy ; Energy and Environment ; Energy and Natural Resources ; Energy Demand ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Force Participation Rate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Oil Reserve ; Oil Sector ; Public Sector Development
    Abstract: This paper extends the World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM) with the addition of a natural resource sector to analyze how long-run growth evolves in resource-rich countries and the growth impacts of price shocks and resource discoveries. In the LTGM-Natural Resource Extension (LTGM-NR), commodity price shocks affect long-term economic growth through physical investment rates. As a large share of resource income typically accrues to the government, the size of the boost to investment in a price boom depends on the government's fiscal rule. Fiscal rules that prioritize public investment, like a Hartwick Rule, generally lead to the largest increases in long-term growth. However, structural surplus rules, which save commodity revenues, can also boost growth if they free up savings for private investment. The response of growth to discoveries of natural resources is similar to the response to price shocks, although discoveries also produce a direct effect on real GDP, in addition to an indirect effect through investment. The LTGM-NR also captures the effect of other (non-resource) growth fundamentals in resource-rich economies, and it is better suited to general growth analysis in these countries than the standard LTGM. However, the LTGM-NR is a supply-side model, and so does not capture the short-run effects of price and discovery shocks that operate through aggregate demand
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9965
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
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