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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD food, agriculture and fisheries papers no. 149
    Keywords: GHG emission tax ; abatement subsidy ; Paris Agreement ; Agriculture and Food ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This study uses GLOBIOM ‒ the most detailed global economic model of agriculture, land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ‒ to assess the effectiveness of different policies in cutting net emissions from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, with a view to helping limit long-term global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2°C. Trade-offs between emission reductions and impacts on food producers, consumers and government budgets are also evaluated for each policy package. A full complement of policy options is deployed globally across AFOLU, comprising emission taxes for emitting AFOLU activities and subsidies rewarding carbon sequestration. Using a carbon price consistent with the 2°C target (1.5°C target), this is projected to mitigate 8 GtCO2 eq/yr (12 GtCO2 eq/yr) in 2050, representing 89% (129%) reduction in net AFOLU emissions, and 12% (21%) of total anthropogenic GHG emissions. Nearly two-thirds of the net emission reductions are from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) component of AFOLU, mostly from reduced deforestation. A global carbon tax on AFOLU is found to be twice as effective in lowering emissions as an equivalently priced emission abatement subsidy because the latter keeps high emitting producers in business. However, a tax has trade-offs in terms of lower agricultural production and food consumption, which a subsidy avoids. A shift to lower emission diets by consumers has a much smaller impact on reducing agricultural emissions than any of the policy packages involving taxes on emissions.
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (78 Seiten) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers no.180
    Keywords: Agriculture and Food ; Trade ; Environment
    Abstract: This study investigates whether agricultural policy reforms could help cushion the impacts of climate change on agriculture by facilitating the relocation of production and international trade. The agricultural sector faces immense challenges in ensuring the provision of food, farm incomes, employment and environmental services in a changing climate. Its ability to meet these challenges depends, in part, on the flexibility with which agricultural production can be relocated in response to agro-ecological and market conditions being reshaped by climate change in a sustainable manner. To better understand these interactions, this study employs a quantitative model to assess the economic and environmental effects of removing market distorting policies under climate change. The results suggest that the policy reforms could reduce the extent to which climate change increases agricultural commodity prices and undernourishment and, in that sense, contribute to global adaptation to climate change. Accompanying policy measures may however be required to prevent potential trade-offs associated with the reforms, including increases in land use emissions.
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8744
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Palazzo, Amanda Investment Needs for Irrigation Infrastructure along Different Socioeconomic Pathways
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper conducts an assessment of the global costs for expanding, upgrading, and improving irrigation infrastructure in developing countries, along different future scenarios toward 2050. It uses the GLobal BIOsphere Management Model, a partial equilibrium model of the global agricultural and forestry sectors. It examines the impacts of irrigation expansion on the agriculture and food system, from the perspective of different Sustainable Development Goals, in particular food security (goal 2), land use change and biodiversity (goal 15), greenhouse gas emissions (goal 13), and sustainable water use (goal 6). It finds that irrigation support policies improve food security globally and can reduce the burden on land by limiting expansion of cropland area. However, the effectiveness of irrigation to achieve a larger set of goals depends on the regional context. In South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, the expansion of irrigation increases unsustainable water extraction practices. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of the infrastructure costs and impacts under different socioeconomic developments, levels of radiative forcing and climate change scenarios, dietary patterns, trade openness, and efficiencies of irrigation systems. The findings indicate that irrigation systems could play an important role in adaptation to the most adverse climate change; however, increased water scarcity may also limit adaptation potentials
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 4
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (56 p)
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Havlik, Petr Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors
    Abstract: This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (88 p.) , 21 x 28cm.
    Series Statement: OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers no.206
    Keywords: Agriculture and Food ; Environment
    Abstract: Reforming agricultural support is increasingly considered a viable means to enhance agriculture’s contribution to climate change mitigation, while fulfilling broader food systems policy objectives related to food security and livelihoods. This study uses a new computable general equilibrium model to investigate a set of global policy reform scenarios that reorientate governments’ budgetary transfers to agriculture to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The results suggest that removing budgetary support globally would reduce agricultural emissions by 2.1% with potential negative effects on food supply. Reorienting existing support, instead, could have significantly stronger effects: decoupling payments from production and tying these to suitable agri-environmental practices could raise emission reduction to over 4% without harming food supply. Targeted investments in productivity and abatement technologies could bring additional emission savings in the long term with co-benefits for food security. Overall, combining green decoupling and investment policies in OECD countries would reduce global agricultural emissions by 5% – or by 11% if extended to other regions – while balancing outcomes across the three dimensions of the food systems’ triple challenge.
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