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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Gross capital flows, common factors, and the global financial cycle (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Development Research Group, Macroeconomics and Growth Team
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8354
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Barrot, Luis-Diego Gross Capital Flows, Common Factors, and the Global Financial Cycle
    Keywords: Kapitalmobilität ; Rohstoffpreis ; Wechselkurs ; Zins ; Globalisierung ; Welt ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper assesses the international comovement of gross capital inflows and outflows using a two-level factor model. Among advanced and emerging countries, capital flows exhibit strong commonality: common (global and country group-specific) factors account, on average, for close to half of their variance. There is a contrast across groups: common factors dominate advanced-country capital flows, while idiosyncratic factors dominate emerging- country flows and, especially, developing-country flows. The reason is the much larger role of global factors among advanced countries. Importantly, these findings apply to both inflows and outflows: their respective common factors are very similar-although global factors play a bigger role for outflows than for inflows. The commonality of flows reflects a global cycle, summarized by a small set of variables (the VIX, the U.S. real interest rate and real exchange rate, U.S. GDP growth, and world commodity prices) that explain much of the variance of the estimated factors-especially the global factors. Over time, the quantitative role of the common factors exhibits a "globalization" stage up to 2007, during which they acquire growing importance, followed by a phase of "deglobalization" post-crisis. Greater financial openness, deeper financial systems, and more rigid exchange rate regimes amplify countries' exposure to the global financial cycle
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8354
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Assessing the international comovement of equity returns (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8516
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Abate, Girum Dagnachew Assessing the International Comovement of Equity Returns
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The international comovement of equity returns has been viewed as reflecting either pervasive common shocks or local linkages between countries. This paper brings these perspectives together by assessing the comovement of equity returns in a dynamic model that allows for both common factors and spatial dependence, using quarterly data for 40 advanced and emerging countries over the past two decades, and including GDP growth, the real interest rate, and credit as fundamental variables. Estimation results employing a bias-corrected quasi-maximum likelihood approach provide strong indication that the cross-country dependence of equity returns results from both spatial effects and common shocks captured by a latent common factor-weak and strong dependence, respectively. The factor exhibits a robust negative correlation with market measures of aggregate risk. Countries' exposure to the common factor rises with their extent of trade openness and the degree of rigidity of their exchange rate regime. Despite its simplicity, the empirical model fits the data well. All these results are robust to the use of alternative spatial weight matrices. The paper also shows that ignoring cross-country dependence leads to distorted parameter estimates and a marked deterioration of the explanatory power of the empirical model
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8516
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Adding space to the international business cycle (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8786
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Abate, Girum Dagnachew Adding Space to the International Business Cycle
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Growth fluctuations exhibit substantial synchronization across countries, which has been viewed as reflecting a global business cycle driven by shocks with worldwide reach, or spillovers resulting from local real and/or financial linkages between countries. This paper brings these two perspectives together by analyzing international growth fluctuations in a setting that allows for both global shocks and spatial dependence. Using annual data for 117 countries over 1970-2016, the paper finds that the cross-country dependence of aggregate growth is the combined result of global shocks summarized by a latent common factor and spatial effects accruing through the growth of nearby countries-with proximity measured by bilateral trade linkages or geographic distance. The latent global factor shows a strong positive correlation with worldwide TFP growth. Countries' exposure to global shocks rises with their openness to trade and the degree of commodity specialization of their economies. Despite its simplicity, the empirical model fits the data well, especially for advanced countries. Ignoring the cross-country dependence of growth, by omitting spatial effects or common shocks (or both) from the analysis, leads to a marked deterioration of the empirical model's in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecasting performance
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8786
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    Online Resource
    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global Imbalances Before and After the Global Crisis (2010)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (37 p)
    Edition: 2010 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Serven, Luis Global Imbalances Before and After the Global Crisis
    Abstract: This paper surveys the academic and policy debate on the roots of global imbalances, their role in the inception of the global crisis, and their prospects in its aftermath. The conventional view holds that global imbalances result primarily from unsustainably high demand for goods in the United States and other rich countries, and that their impending correction must involve major United States trade adjustment and dollar depreciation - although recent literature argues that their extent may be dampened by financial adjustment effects. In contrast, an alternative view portrays global imbalances as the equilibrium result of asymmetries in world asset demand and supply. Absent changes in the deep determinants of these, global imbalances can persist. International capital flow patterns before and during the crisis lend support to the equilibrium view. The paper also examines different hypotheses proposed in the literature on the role of global imbalances in the generation and propagation of the financial crisis. On the whole, the evidence suggests that global imbalances were not among the major causes of the crisis. Lastly, the paper assesses alternative scenarios about the future of global imbalances, considering in particular their potential consequences for developing countries, and the policy measures that these might adopt to enhance their growth prospects in a changing global equilibrium
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5354
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Growth, inequality, and poverty : a robust relationship? (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8578
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Marrero, Gustavo A Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: A Robust Relationship?
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: An extensive literature on poverty traps suggests that high levels of poverty deter growth. However, a seemingly basic implication of the underlying theoretical models, namely that countries suffering from higher levels of poverty should grow less rapidly, has remained untested. A parallel literature has suggested a variety of mechanisms through which inequality may affect growth in opposing directions. Because inequality and poverty are different aspects of the income distribution, inequality can also affect growth through poverty, an indirect channel that has not been explicitly analyzed. This paper contributes to fill both gaps. Using a large cross-country panel data set, it estimates a reduced-form growth equation adding both inequality and poverty to an otherwise standard set of growth determinants. Given inequality, the correlation of growth with poverty is consistently negative. In contrast, given poverty, the correlation of growth with inequality can be positive or negative, depending on the empirical specification and econometric approach used. Yet, the indirect effect of inequality on growth through its correlation with poverty is robustly negative. Closer inspection shows that these results are driven by the sample observations featuring high (but not extremely high) poverty rates. These empirical findings are consistent with the predictions from an analytical framework with learning-by-doing and knowledge spillovers, in which consumers cannot save and invest if their initial endowment is below a minimum consumption level
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8578
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Striving for growth after adjustment : The role of capital formation (1993)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    ISBN: 0821324845 , 9780821324844
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (298 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Abstract: This book presents the results of about three years of work finished in early 1992 in the area of private investment and macroeconomic adjustment. Its purpose is to explore the macroeconomic determinants of investment and the causes and cures for the gap between maroeconomic adjustment and stabilization and the resumption of economic growth in developing countries, a gap that even today - 10 years after the debt crisis and the subsequent adjustment of the eighties - remains wide. This volume highlights the central role of capital formation (public and private) in the restoration of sustainable growth
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Gross capital flows by banks, corporates, and sovereigns (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 108 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8514
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Avdjiev, Stefan Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates, and Sovereigns
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper constructs a new dataset of quarterly capital flows by sector and establishes four facts. First, the co-movement of capital inflows and outflows is driven by banks. Second, procyclicality of capital inflows is driven by banks and corporates, whereas sovereigns' external liabilities move acyclically in advanced and countercyclically in emerging countries. Third, procyclicality of capital outflows is driven by advanced countries' banks and emerging countries' sovereigns (reserves). Fourth, capital inflows and outflows decline for banks and corporates when global risk aversion increases, whereas sovereigns' flows show no response. These facts are inconsistent with a large class of theoretical models
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8514
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fiscal Rules, Public Investment, And Growth (2007)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (36 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Serven, Luis Fiscal Rules, Public Investment, And Growth
    Keywords: Access to Finance ; Cash Flows ; Debt Markets ; Expenditures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Market ; Financial Market Participants ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; International Bank ; International Financial Institutions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Solvency ; Access to Finance ; Cash Flows ; Debt Markets ; Expenditures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Market ; Financial Market Participants ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; International Bank ; International Financial Institutions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Solvency ; Access to Finance ; Cash Flows ; Debt Markets ; Expenditures ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Market ; Financial Market Participants ; Financial Markets ; Fiscal Policy ; International Bank ; International Financial Institutions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Public Investment ; Public Sector Economics and Finance ; Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management ; Solvency
    Abstract: Solvency is an intertemporal concept, relating to the present value of revenues and expenditures, and encompassing both assets and liabilities. But the standard practice among policy makers, financial market participants and international financial institutions is to assess the strength of the fiscal accounts solely on the basis of the cash deficit. Short-term cash flows matter, but a preponderant focus on them can encourage governments to invest too little, especially during episodes of fiscal tightening. This has potentially adverse consequences for growth and, paradoxically, even for fiscal solvency itself. The paper offers an overview of the links between fiscal targets, public investment, and public sector solvency. After reviewing the international experience with public investment under fiscal adjustment, the paper lays out an analytical framework to illustrate the consequences of using the public deficit as a guide to solvency. The paper then discusses some alternatives to conventional cash deficit rules and their implications for investment and fiscal solvency
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Swept by the tide? : the international comovement of capital flows (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Research Group
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 79 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8787
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Fernandez Lafuerza, Luis Gonzalo Swept by the Tide? The International Comovement of Capital Flows
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper assesses the international comovement of gross capital flows in a setting simultaneously encompassing aggregate inflows and outflows. It uses as empirical framework a multilevel latent factor model, implemented on flow data for a large sample of countries over more than three decades. On average, common shocks account for over 40 percent of the variance of both inflows and outflows, although with major differences between advanced countries and the rest. Among the former, global and group shocks dominate capital flows, and the same shocks drive gross inflows and outflows. Among the latter countries, idiosyncratic shocks tend to play the leading role, and gross inflows exhibit less commonality with outflows. The latent factors configure an international financial cycle that closely tracks the trends in a handful of global 'push' variables. Recursive estimation of the factor model reveals a rising trend in the exposure of countries' flows to the international cycle-especially for advanced economies-up to the global financial crisis. Exposure to the cycle is robustly related to countries' external financial openness and the (lack of) flexibility of their exchange rate regime
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8787
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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    MPI Ethno. Forsch.
  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries (2002)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (24 p.))
    Edition: Online-Ausg. World Bank E-Library Archive
    Parallel Title: Servén, Luis Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries
    Keywords: Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development ; Capital Stock ; Currencies and Exchange Rates ; Debt Markets ; Developing Countries ; Development Bank ; Economic Stabilization ; Economic Theory and Research ; Emerging Markets ; Exchange ; Finance and Financial Sector Development ; Financial Development ; Financial Literacy ; Financial Systems ; Goods ; Income Level ; Inflation ; Investment Decisions ; Investment and Investment Climate ; Macroeconomic Management ; Macroeconomic Un ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth ; Poverty Reduction ; Private Sector Development
    Abstract: Servén examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems. This paper—a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to assess the effects of macroeconomic volatility. The author may be contacted at lservenworldbank.org
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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