ISBN:
9781844070893
Language:
English
Pages:
Online-Ressource (353 p)
Series Statement:
Population and Sustainable Development
Parallel Title:
Erscheint auch als The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century : New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development
DDC:
304.6/2/0112
Keywords:
Electronic books
Abstract:
The 20th century was the century of explosive population growth, resulting in unprecedented impacts; in contrast, the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population aging. We are currently at the crossroads of these demographic regimes. This book presents fresh evidence about our demographic future and provides a new framework for understanding the underlying unity in this diversity. It is an invaluable resource for those concerned with the implications of population change in the 21st century. The End of World Population Growth in the 21s
Description / Table of Contents:
Cover; Half Title; Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; List of Acronyms; 1 Introduction; 1.1 Contrasting Perceptions of the Demographic Future: From "Population Explosion" to "Gray Dawn"; 1.2 The Continuing Demographic Transition; 1.3 Antecedents; 1.4 Structure of the Volume; 2 The End of World Population Growth; 2.1 Why Do We Need New Forecasts?; 2.2 Our Approach to Population Forecasting; 2.3 Summary of Arguments and Specific Assumptions; 2.4 The Future Population of the World and Its Uncertainty; 2.5 The Population of World Regions and Their Uncertainties
Description / Table of Contents:
2.6 Regional Population Shares2.7 Comparison with Other World Population Forecasts; Postscript: The Latest UN Long-Range Projections; 2.8 Conclusions; Appendix 2.1: Definition of World Region; Appendix 2.2: Assumed Matrix of Inter-regional Migration Flows; Appendix 2.3: Methods; 3 Applications of Probabilistic Population Forecasting; 3.1 Massive Population Aging; 3.2 Conditional Probabilistic Forecasting; 3.3 Conditional Probabilistic Forecasts with Future Jump-Off Dates; 3.4 Conclusions; 4 Future Human Capital: Population Projections by Level of Education; 4.1 The Multistate Approach
Description / Table of Contents:
4.2 Data on Education4.3 Regional Education Levels in 2000; 4.4 Scenarios; Appendix 4.1: Sources of Data and Methods of Estimation; Appendix 4.2: Results of the Projections; 5 Literate Life Expectancy: Charting the Progress in Human Development; 5.1 A Clear and Meaningful Indicator of Social Development; 5.2 What Does Literate Life Expectancy Represent?; 5.3 Calculations with Empirical Data; 5.4 Trends in Literate Life Expectancy since 1970; 5.5 Projections of Literate Life Expectancy to 2030; 5.6 Conclusions
Description / Table of Contents:
Appendix 5.1: Data Sources, Differences in Country Rankings, and Comparison of "No Education" and "Illiterate" Categories6 Population-Environment-Development-Agriculture Interactions in Africa: A Case Study on Ethiopia; 6.1 Background; 6.2 The Structure of the PEDA Model; 6.3 PEDA Projections for Ethiopia; 6.4 Conclusions; Appendix 6.1: Model and Parameter Specifications; 7 Interactions between Education and HIV: Demographic Examples from Botswana; 7.1 Introduction; 7.2 Some Tidbits of Evidence; 7.3 Overview of the Methodology; 7.4 Examples from Botswana; 7.5 Previous Findings
Description / Table of Contents:
7.6 ConclusionsAppendix 7.1: Transition Rates between States; Appendix 7.2: The Prevalence Rate Data and Their Correction; 8 China's Future Urban and Rural Population by Level of Education; 8.1 Introduction; 8.2 Salient Demographic Features in Contemporary China; 8.3 Alternative Scenarios for China's Future; 8.4 Conclusions; 9 Population, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Climate Change; 9.1 Introduction; 9.2 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions; 9.3 Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissions; 9.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications
Description / Table of Contents:
10 Conceptualizing Population in Sustainable Development: From "Population Stabilization" to "Population Balance"
Note:
Description based upon print version of record
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