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  • 1
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource (35 p)
    Edition: 2014 World Bank eLibrary
    Parallel Title: Riera-Crichton, Daniel Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions and Expansions
    Abstract: Using non-linear methods, this paper finds that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. For industrial countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the "true" long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In the case of developing countries, the bias results from the fact that the multiplier for recessions and government spending going down (the "when-it-rains-it-pours" phenomenon) is larger than when government spending is going up
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (66 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Ezran, Irene Measuring Global Economic Activity Using Air Pollution
    Keywords: GDP Accuracy ; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth, Economic Forecasting, Nitrogen Dioxide ; Measurement of Economic Activity ; Night Lights ; No2 Air Pollution Indicator
    Abstract: This paper uses satellite readings of nitrogen (NO2) air pollution, a byproduct of combustion, to improve the measurement of global economic activity. The proposed approach improves upon night light measures for countries where data manipulation, conflict, or other factors have led to poor national accounts. The paper also shows that existing country rankings of gross domestic product accuracy over the past 15 years are unreliable, even among advanced economies. For example, the paper shows that during COVID, in France, the UK and Spain gross domestic product in 2020 was underreported by 76, 181, and 205 basis points respectively. The methodological contribution extends previous Error-Measurement frameworks which, suffer from error-in-variables biases, with an objective, data-driven identification strategy exploiting the plausibly orthogonal measurement errors between nitrogen dioxide and night lights, which are measured at different times
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  • 3
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (90 pages)
    Series Statement: LAC Semiannual Report
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als
    Keywords: Covid-19 ; Economic Integration ; Foreign Investment ; Growth ; Inflation ; Nearshoring ; Trade ; Uncertainty
    Abstract: The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region has proved to be relatively resilient in the face of increased debt stress, stubborn inflation, and uncertainty arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Income and employment have largely recovered from the pandemic, poverty has receded, and markets remain guardedly optimistic about the near future. However, global uncertainty is rising, including a recent wave of bank failures in the US and Europe. Strengthening resilience, both on the health and macroeconomic fronts, will be paramount. Progress remains pending in both vaccination coverage and health system preparedness, while the institutionality of macroeconomic policy in some countries is being questioned. The evolution of the global economy is providing two new areas of opportunity for the region: the trend toward nearshoring-moving production closer to the US and European markets-and the imperative to combat climate change, which is giving the region a new comparative advantage in sun, wind, hydro, and natural capital. Taking advantage of these will require greater integration into the global economy. Yet, paradoxically, in the face of these opportunities. LAC is becoming less integrated. Trade intensity has largely stagnated, and foreign direct investment (FDI) to most countries has declined. Beyond the long-term structural reforms needed to reduce systemic risk, raise the level and quality of education, invest in infrastructure, and ensure well-functioning financial markets, this report calls to preserve the reputational gains of the past 20 years in terms of macro stability and streamlining regulation dealing with customs and transport to lower the cost of doing business in the region. Export promotion agencies and investment promotion agencies can also help as they have proven track records. A comprehensive approach to both shorter- and longer-term reforms could move LAC toward a renewed and more dynamic engagement with the global economy
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Economist
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8720
    Series Statement: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Gunter, Samara Policy Implications of Non-Linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    Abstract: An earlier paper titled "Non-linear effects of tax changes on output: The role of the initial level of taxation," estimated tax multipliers using (i) a novel dataset on value-added taxes for 51 countries (21 industrial and 30 developing) for the period 1970-2014, and (ii) the so-called narrative approach developed by Romer and Romer (2010) to properly identify exogenous tax changes. The main finding is that, in line with existing theoretical distortionary and disincentive-based arguments, the effect of tax changes on output is highly non-linear. The tax multiplier is essentially zero under relatively low/moderate initial tax rate levels and more negative as the initial tax rate and the size of the change in the tax rate increase. This companion paper first shows that these findings have important policy implications, given that the initial level of taxes varies greatly across countries and thus so will the potential output effect of changing tax rates. The paper then turns to some specific policy applications. It focuses on the relevance of the arguments for revenue mobilization in countries with low levels of provision of public goods and social and infrastructure gaps, as well as in commodity-dependent countries. The paper then considers some practical implications for the standard debt sustainability analysis. Lastly, it evaluates the implications of the findings for the Laffer curve
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 5
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8668
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 6
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (35 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Camarena, Jose Andree Fooled by the Cycle: Permanent versus Cyclical Improvements in Social Indicators
    Keywords: Business Cycle ; Cyclicality ; Human Development ; Poverty ; Poverty Monitoring and Analysis ; Poverty Reduction ; Social Analysis ; Social Development ; Social Indicator ; Unemployment
    Abstract: This paper studies the time series behavior of a set of widely-used social indicators and uncovers two important stylized facts. First, not all social indicators are created equal in terms of the importance of cyclical fluctuations. While some social indicators such as the unemployment rate and monetary poverty show large cyclical fluctuations, other social measures such as the Human Development Index are, by construction, dominated by long-run trends. Second, interestingly, yet not surprisingly, a large part of the cyclical fluctuations in social indicators can be explained by cyclical changes in income (proxied by real GDP per capita). For this reason, countries with large cyclical income volatility exhibit, in turn, large cyclical changes in some of these social indicators (particularly in those indicators that are more prone to cyclical fluctuations). Since cyclical income volatility is much larger in the developing world, these two critical stylized facts raise fundamental issues regarding the duration of improvements in social indicators (like the ones observed in many developing countries during the last commodity super-cycle). After a detailed conceptual and methodological discussion of these issues, and relying on a global sample of industrial and developing countries, this paper digs deeper into the importance of cyclical versus permanent components by extending the seminal contribution of Datt and Ravallion (1992). In particular, it shows that more than 40 percent of the fall in monetary poverty observed in Latin America and the Caribbean during the so-called Golden Decade can be attributed to cyclical changes in income. While in principle universal, these concerns are particularly relevant in the developing world where, compared to developed countries, output volatility is larger and driven, to a large extent, by external factors (such as commodity prices)
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  • 7
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (41 pages)
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Bracco, Jessica Social Transfer Multipliers in Developed and Emerging Countries: The Role of Hand-to-Mouth Consumers
    Abstract: This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of social transfer payments to individuals for a sample of 23 developed and Latin American countries. The findings show that the social transfer multiplier is 0.3 in developed countries, but 0.9 in Latin American economies. The paper studies the role of hand-to-mouth consumers, who have no access to financial markets and a high marginal propensity to consume, as a first order factor to explain the heterogeneity in the size of social transfer multipliers. Using survey-based data from the Global Findex dataset, the paper finds that the average share of the population living hand-to-mouth is 23 percent in developed economies versus 60 percent in Latin American countries. This evidence is interpreted with a two-agent New Keynesian model. The findings show that the difference in the share of hand-to-mouth consumers explains 80 to 90 percent of the difference in the estimated social transfer multipliers. The paper also documents that the share of hand-to-mouth individuals in emerging countries is in general 47 percent which suggests that a larger social transfer multiplier may be expected for this type of economy
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