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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Assessing Real Exchange Rate Misalignments (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (73 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Kubota, Megumi Assessing Real Exchange Rate Misalignments
    Schlagwort(e): 1971-2005 ; Kaufkraftparität ; Wechselkurspolitik ; Offene Volkswirtschaft ; Probit-Modell ; Tobit-Modell ; Panel ; Welt
    Kurzfassung: There is a renewed debate on the role of exchange rate policies as an industrial policy tool in both academic and policy circles. Policy practitioners usually examine real exchange rate misalignments to monitor the behavior of this key relative price and, if possible, exploit distortions in the traded and non-traded relative price to promote growth. Anecdotal evidence shows that some countries have pursued very active exchange rate policies to promote the export sector and enhance growth by undervaluing their currencies. The main goal of this paper is to provide a systematic characterization of real exchange rate undervaluations. The long-run real exchange rate equation is estimated using: (a) Johansen time series cointegration estimates, and (b) pooled mean group estimates for non-stationary panel data. The paper constructs a dataset of real undervaluation episodes. It first evaluates whether (and if so, to what extent) economic policies can be used to either cause or sustain real undervaluations. In this context the paper empirically models the likelihood and magnitude of sustaining real exchange rate undervaluations by examining their link to policy instruments (such as exchange rate regimes and capital controls, among other policies) using probit and Tobit models. Finally, it investigates whether foreign exchange intervention can generate persistent real exchange rate deviations from equilibrium. In general, it finds that intervention can lead to greater persistence in the incidence and magnitude of real exchange rate undervaluations
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5925
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 2
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    Online-Ressource
    Estimating the Half-Life of Theoretically Founded Real Exchange Rate Misalignments (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (24 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Kubota, Megumi Estimating the Half-Life of Theoretically Founded Real Exchange Rate Misalignments
    Kurzfassung: This paper models empirically the short and long-term behavior of the real exchange rate misalignment-a key variable in academic and policy circles. The equilibrium real exchange rate is derived from a theoretical model with intertemporal external equilibrium and internal equilibrium (in traded and non-traded markets) based on the current account dynamics and Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson productivity, respectively. This provides a bridge between theory and empirics that links the real exchange rate and its fundamentals (terms of trade, the ratio of net foreign assets to gross domestic product, and productivity differentials). The paper contributes to the literature by: (a) estimating an unrestricted vector error correction model that examines the short-term dynamics of real exchange rate misalignments and links these deviations with shocks to fundamentals from 1970 to 2010, and (b) computing the speed of reversion of real exchange rate misalignments with respect to a fundamentals-based equilibrium level. The paper reconciles two strands of the empirical literature that estimate the half-life of purchasing power parity deviations: one, the linear adjustment model that renders the consensus half-life estimates of purchasing power parity deviations, and another, the non-linear adjustment model of purchasing power parity deviations. The model estimates the half-life of real exchange rate deviations from their fundamental equilibrium at approximately 2.8 years. Consequently, about 25 percent of the real exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level is corrected in the next year. Approximately 43 percent of the countries in the sample have a half-life of real exchange rate deviations from equilibrium less than 2.5 years-which is consistent with predictions from non-linear mean reversion models
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6411
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 3
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Drivers of gross capital inflows : which factors are more important for Sub-Saharan Africa? (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Africa Region, Office of the Chief Economist
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: Policy research working paper 8777
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Policy research working paper
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Calderon, Cesar Drivers of Gross Capital Inflows: Which Factors are More Important for Sub-Saharan Africa?
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: This paper discusses recent trends and investigates the drivers of capital flows across regions in the world, with emphasis on Sub-Saharan Africa. The post-global financial crisis behavior of capital flows into Sub-Saharan Africa is unique and differs from that of global capital flows. The structure of financial flows into Sub-Saharan Africa has shifted toward new sources, such as international bond issuances and debt inflows from non-Paris Club governments. The main message is that the behavior of capital flows into Sub-Saharan Africa differs from that of capital flows into global, industrial, and non-Sub-Saharan African developing countries. The regression analysis reveals that gross flows into Sub-Saharan African are predominantly influenced by external factors, such as foreign growth and uncertainty in global markets and policies. Capital flow behavior for Sub-Saharan African countries is different from that of industrial countries due to different economic structures, which render different transmission processes. The main findings suggest that pull and push factors are the driving forces of capital inflows for industrial countries and non-Sub-Saharan African developing countries-especially better economic performance, sound fiscal outcomes, a greater degree of financial openness, and stronger institutions. The impact of these drivers has become stronger in the 2000s. Macroeconomic policy can play an important role in attracting capital inflows. For instance, fiscal discipline promotes greater other investment inflows, and less flexible exchange rate arrangements (more exchange rate stability) foster portfolio investment inflows
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8777
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 4
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Assessing the returns on investment in data openness and transparency (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Africa Region, Office of the Chief Economist
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Serie: Policy research working paper 9139
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Policy research working paper
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als Megumi Kubota Assessing the Returns on Investment in Data Openness and Transparency
    Schlagwort(e): Graue Literatur
    Kurzfassung: This paper investigates the potential benefits for a country from investing in data transparency. The paper shows that increased data transparency can bring substantive returns in lower costs of external borrowing. This result is obtained by estimating the impact of public data transparency on sovereign spreads conditional on the country's level of institutional quality and public and external debt. While improving data transparency alone reduces the external borrowing costs for a country, the return is much higher when combined with stronger institutional quality and lower public and external debt. Similarly, the returns on investing in data transparency are higher when a country's integration to the global economy deepens, as captured by trade and financial openness. Estimation of an instrumental variable regression shows that Sub-Saharan African countries could have saved up to 14.5 basis points in sovereign bond spreads and decreased their external debt burden by USD 405.4 million (0.02 percent of gross domestic product) in 2018, if their average level of data transparency was that of a country in the top quartile of the upper-middle-income country category. At the country level, Angola could have reduced its external debt burden by around USD 73.6 million
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9139
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 5
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Africa's Pulse, No. 25, April 2022 (2022)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (132 pages)
    Serie: Africa's Pulse
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Schlagwort(e): Coronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Economic Growth ; Job Creation ; Labor Market ; Pandemic ; Resilience ; Social Insurance ; Staginflation ; Structural Transformation
    Kurzfassung: Sub-Saharan Africa's recovery from the pandemic is expected to decelerate in 2022 amid a slowdown in global economic activity, continued supply constraints, outbreaks of new coronavirus variants, climatic shocks, high inflation, and rising financial risks due to high and increasingly vulnerable debt levels. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the already existing tensions and vulnerabilities affecting the continent. Given the sources of growth in the region and the nature of the economic linkages with Russia and Ukraine, the war in Ukraine might have a marginal impact on economic growth and on overall poverty-as this shock affects mostly the urban poor and vulnerable people living just above the poverty line. However, its largest impact is on the increasing likelihood of civil strife as a result of food- and energy-fueled inflation amid an environment of heightened political instability. The looming threats of stagflation require a two-pronged strategy that combines short-term measures to contain inflationary pressures and medium-to-long-term policies that accelerate the structural transformation and create more and better jobs. In response to supply shocks, monetary policy in the region may prove ineffective to bring down inflation and other short-run options may be restricted by the lack of fiscal space. Concessional financing might be key to helping countries alleviate the impact of food and fuel inflation. Over the medium term, avoiding stagflation may require a combination of actionable measures that improve the resilience of the economy by shoring up productivity and job creation. Lastly, ongoing actions to enhance social protection-including dynamic delivery systems for rapid scalability and shock-sensitive financing-could be strengthened further to improve economic resilience against shocks and foster investments in productive assets
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Africa's Pulse, No. 22, Fall 2020 (2020)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Französisch
    Seiten: 1 Online-Ressource (150 pages)
    Serie: World Bank E-Library Archive
    Serie: Africa's Pulse
    Paralleltitel: Erscheint auch als
    Kurzfassung: COVID-19 has taken a large toll on economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa, putting a decade of hard-won economic progress at risk. The pandemic is pushing the region into its first recession in 25 years. In 2020, GDP per capita is expected to contract by 6.5 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and by the end of 2021, it's likely to have regressed back to its 2007's level. As a consequence, COVID-19 could push up to 43 million people into extreme poverty in Africa, erasing at least five years of progress in fighting poverty. The road to recovery will be long, steep, and must be paved with sound economic policies. Countries need to reconstitute fiscal space to help finance programs that can stimulate recovery. Better debt transparency and management, better service delivery, civil society engagement and less corruption will be critical. Ultimately, sustained recovery will depend on how fast African countries prioritize policy actions and investment that address the challenge of creating more, better and inclusive jobs. These policy priorities, in turn, operate through three critical (an inter-related) channels: the digital transformation, the sectoral reallocation, and the the spatial integration. Countries must expand digital infrastructure and make connectivity affordable, reliable and universal across Africa. Shifting resources towards non-traditional economic sectors with higher productivity, lower volatility and greater value addition, fully leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will be equally critical. Finally, fostering the reallocation of resources from less to more efficient job-creating locations through enhanced rural-urban, inland-coastal connectivity will be key to jobs and economic transformation. Interestingly, number of countries, especially in the East African Community and in the West African Monetary Union are seizing the opportunity of the crisis to accelerate these reforms
    DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1649-9
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Sudden stops : Are global and local investors alike? (2011)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (43 p)
    Ausgabe: 2011 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Calderón, César Sudden stops
    Kurzfassung: The main goal of this paper is to characterize the determinants of sudden stops caused by domestic vis-à-vis foreign residents. Are the decisions of domestic investors to invest abroad or of foreign investors to cut off funds from the domestic economy governed by the same set of determinants? Given the distribution of different types of sudden stop episodes over time and its different macroeconomic consequences, the authors argue that the determinants may not be alike. Using an effective sample of 82 countries with annual information over the period 1970-2007, the analysis finds that global investors are less likely to stop bringing their capital when their economy is growing and the world interest rate is lower. Domestic agents are more willing to invest abroad if the macroeconomic performance of the domestic economy is poor (high inflation), the financial system is weak, and there are high external savings (current account surpluses). Increasing financial openness makes the domestic country more vulnerable to sudden stops caused by either local or global investors. Finally, countries with higher shares of foreign direct investment are less prone to inflow-driven sudden stops, whereas the opposite holds for outflow-driven sudden stops
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5569
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 8
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Gross Inflows Gone Wild : Gross Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Crises (2012)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (46 p)
    Ausgabe: 2012 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Calderón, César Gross Inflows Gone Wild
    Kurzfassung: The main goal of the paper is to examine whether surges in private capital inflows lead to credit booms. The authors built a quarterly database on gross capital inflows, credit to the private sector, and other macro-financial indicators for a sample of 71 countries from 1975q1 to 2010q4. Identifying credit booms is not trivial: they use different criteria implemented in the literature. The estimates suggest that: (i) Surges in gross private capital inflows are overall good predictors of credit booms. (ii) The likelihood of credit booms is higher if the surges in foreign flows are driven by private other investment inflows and, to a lesser extent, portfolio investment inflows. (iii) Surges in gross inflows are also good predictors of credit booms that end up in a financial crisis - “bad” credit booms. This finding holds even after controlling for the appreciation of the local currency and the build-up of leverage. (iv) Bad credit booms are more likely to occur when surges are driven by other investment inflows. At best, foreign direct investment inflow-driven surges help mitigate the incidence of this type of credit boom. (v) The predictive ability of gross other investment inflows is primarily driven by bank inflows. (vi) Consistent with the literature, the analysis finds that the build-up of leverage and the real overvaluation of the currency help predict credit booms that are followed by a systemic crisis. Controlling for these factors, capital flows are still a significant predictor of credit booms
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6270
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 9
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Duration Dependence and Change-Points in the Likelihood of Credit Booms Ending (2013)
    Washington, D.C : The World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource (48 p)
    Ausgabe: 2013 World Bank eLibrary
    Paralleltitel: Castro, Vitor Duration Dependence and Change-Points in the Likelihood of Credit Booms Ending
    Kurzfassung: Whether the likelihood of a credit boom ending is dependent on its age or not, or whether the respective behavior is smooth or bumpy are important issues to which the economic literature has not given attention yet. This paper tries to fill that gap, exploring those issues with a proper duration analysis. Credit booms are identified considering two criteria well established in the literature: (i) the Mendoza-Terrones criteria and (ii) and the Gourinchas-Valdes-Landarretche criteria. A continuous-time Weibull duration model is employed over a group of 71 countries for the period 1975q1-2010q4 to investigate whether credit booms are duration dependent or not. The findings show that the likelihood of credit booms ending increases over their duration and that these events have become longer over the past decades. In addition, the paper extends the baseline Weibull duration model in order to allow for change-points in the duration dependence parameter. The empirical findings support the presence of a change-point: increasing positive duration dependence is observed in booms that last less than eight to ten quarters, but it becomes decreasing or even irrelevant for longer events. Analogous results are found for those credit boom episodes that are followed by systemic banking crisis (bad credit booms). The findings also show that credit booms are, on average, longer in industrial than in developing countries
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-6475
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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  • 10
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility ? (2009)
    [Washington, D.C] : World Bank
    Details
    Sprache: Englisch
    Seiten: Online-Ressource
    Ausgabe: 2009 World Bank eLibrary Also available in print
    Serie: Policy research working paper 4896
    Paralleltitel: Calderón, César Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility ?
    Schlagwort(e): Foreign exchange rates ; Foreign exchange rates
    Kurzfassung: "The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" argues that: (a) non-monetary factors have gained importance in explaining exchange rate volatility, and (b) trade and financial openness may have a potential role of mitigating and/or amplifying real and nominal shocks to real exchange rates. The goal of the present paper is to examine the ability of trade and financial openness to exacerbate or mitigate real exchange rate volatility. The authors collected information on the real effective exchange rate, its fundamentals, and (outcome and policy measures of) trade and financial openness for a sample of industrial and developing countries for the period 1975-2005. Using instrumental variables techniques, the analysis finds that: (a) High real exchange rate volatility is the result of highly volatile productivity shocks, and sharp oscillations in monetary and fiscal policy shocks. (b) Countries more integrated with international markets of goods and services tend to display more stable real exchange rate fluctuations. (c) Financial openness seems to amplify the fluctuations in real exchange rates. (d) The composition of trade and capital flows plays a role in explaining the smoothing properties of trade and financial openness. Although the former is mainly driven by manufacturing trade, the latter depends on the share of debt (and equity) in total foreign liabilities. (e) Financial openness would attenuate (magnify) real exchange rate volatility, the greater the share of equity (debt) in foreign liabilities. (f) The composition of flows also matters for explaining the smoothing properties of trade and financial openness in periods of currency crisis. "--World Bank web site
    Anmerkung: Includes bibliographical references , Title from PDF file as viewed on 5/7/2009 , Also available in print.
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4896
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
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