ISBN:
9780774805018
Language:
English
Pages:
Online-Ressource (129 p)
Parallel Title:
Print version Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas : A Primer
DDC:
304
Keywords:
Electronic books
;
Demography ; Methodology
;
Population forecasting ; Methodology
;
Electronic books
Abstract:
Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 Introduction -- The Value of Population Projections -- Projections, Forecasts, and Estimates: Definitions -- The Basic Demographic Equation -- Overview of the Book -- 2 Mathematical Extrapolation I -- The Linear Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- The Exponential Function -- Linear Transformation of the Exponential Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- Polynomial Functions -- Linear Transformation of a Polynomial Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- The Hyperbolic Function -- Linear Transformation of the Hyperbolic Function -- A Numerical Example -- Summary -- 3 Mathematical Extrapolation II -- The Modified Exponential Function -- Linear Transformation of the Modified Exponential Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- Mathematical Extrapolation: A Review -- Choosing among Extrapolations -- Measuring the Prediction Error -- A Four-Step Projection Procedure -- Summary -- 4 Comparative Methods -- Ratio Methods -- Constant Share Method -- Projected Share Methods -- Difference Methods -- Constant Difference Method -- Projected Difference Method -- Choosing among Methods -- Summary -- 5 The Cohort-Survival Population Model -- The Basic Cohort Model -- A Numerical Illustration -- An Algebraic Summary -- Mortality -- Basic Measures -- Projecting Death Rates -- Fertility -- Basic Measures -- Projecting Birth Rates -- Summary -- 6 Migration Models -- Basic Concepts -- Immigration and Emigration -- In-Migration and Out-Migration -- Gross and Net Migration -- Causes of Migration -- Estimating Past Migration -- Direct Estimation of Migration -- Indirect Estimation of Migration -- Projecting Future Migration -- Extrapolation of Past Trends -- Regression Models -- Summary -- 7 A Final Note -- Mathematical Extrapolation -- Comparative Methods -- The Cohort-Survival Model -- Migration Models -- Summary.
Description / Table of Contents:
""Contents""; ""Preface""; ""1 Introduction""; ""The Value of Population Projections""; ""Projections, Forecasts, and Estimates: Definitions""; ""The Basic Demographic Equation""; ""Overview of the Book""; ""2 Mathematical Extrapolation I""; ""The Linear Function""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""The Exponential Function""; ""Linear Transformation of the Exponential Function""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""Polynomial Functions""; ""Linear Transformation of a Polynomial Function""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""The Hyperbolic Function""
Description / Table of Contents:
""Linear Transformation of the Hyperbolic Function""""A Numerical Example""; ""Summary""; ""3 Mathematical Extrapolation II""; ""The Modified Exponential Function""; ""Linear Transformation of the Modified Exponential Function""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""Mathematical Extrapolation: A Review""; ""Choosing among Extrapolations""; ""Measuring the Prediction Error""; ""A Four-Step Projection Procedure""; ""Summary""; ""4 Comparative Methods""; ""Ratio Methods""; ""Constant Share Method""; ""Projected Share Methods""; ""Difference Methods""; ""Constant Difference Method""
Description / Table of Contents:
""Projected Difference Method""""Choosing among Methods""; ""Summary""; ""5 The Cohort-Survival Population Model""; ""The Basic Cohort Model""; ""A Numerical Illustration""; ""An Algebraic Summary""; ""Mortality""; ""Basic Measures""; ""Projecting Death Rates""; ""Fertility""; ""Basic Measures""; ""Projecting Birth Rates""; ""Summary""; ""6 Migration Models""; ""Basic Concepts""; ""Immigration and Emigration""; ""In-Migration and Out-Migration""; ""Gross and Net Migration""; ""Causes of Migration""; ""Estimating Past Migration""; ""Direct Estimation of Migration""
Description / Table of Contents:
""Indirect Estimation of Migration""""Projecting Future Migration""; ""Extrapolation of Past Trends""; ""Regression Models""; ""Summary""; ""7 A Final Note""; ""Mathematical Extrapolation""; ""Comparative Methods""; ""The Cohort-Survival Model""; ""Migration Models""; ""Summary""; ""Addendum: Qualities of a Good Demographic Analyst""; ""Appendix A: Linear Regression""; ""Simple Linear Regression""; ""Illustrative Example: Simple Linear Regression""; ""Multiple Linear Regression""; ""Illustrative Example: Multiple Linear Regression""; ""Summary""; ""Appendix B: Logarithms""
Description / Table of Contents:
""What Is a Logarithm?""""The Three Basic Rules of Logarithms""; ""Logarithms and Linear Transformations""; ""Summary""; ""Notes""; ""Selected Readings""; ""Index""; ""A""; ""B""; ""C""; ""E""; ""F""; ""G""; ""H""; ""I""; ""L""; ""M""; ""N""; ""P""; ""Q""; ""R""; ""S""; ""T""; ""V""
Note:
Description based upon print version of record
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