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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    [Washington, D.C] : World Bank
    Language: English
    Pages: Online-Ressource
    Edition: 2009 World Bank eLibrary Also available in print
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 4862
    Parallel Title: Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús Natural disasters and human capital accumulation
    Keywords: Education, Secondary ; Natural disasters ; Education, Secondary ; Natural disasters
    Abstract: "The author assesses empirically the relationship between natural disaster risk and investment in education. Although the results in the empirical literature tend to be inconclusive, using model averaging methods in the framework of cross-country and panel regressions, this paper finds an extremely robust negative partial correlation between secondary school enrollment and natural disaster risk. This result is exclusively driven by geological disasters. Natural disaster risk exposure is a robust determinant of differences in secondary school enrollment between countries, but not within countries, which implies that the effect can be interpreted as a long-run phenomenon. "--World Bank web site
    Note: Includes bibliographical references , Title from PDF file as viewed on 5/8/2009 , Also available in print.
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Language: English
    Pages: 38 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.772
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: Bayesian Model Averaging techniques are used to analyse how robustly it is possible to identify factors that may lead to the bursting of asset price bubbles in OECD economies. A large set of variables put forward in the literature is assessed, as well as interactions of these variables with estimates of asset price misalignments to evaluate the importance of the different channels postulated by theory. The results indicate that asset price misalignments are not robust determinants of house price reversals unless their interaction with other characteristics of the economy (credit growth, population growth and interest rate developments) is taken into account. On the other hand, stock price reversals are affected by misalignments, as well as other real and monetary variables. Out-of-sample prediction exercises provide evidence that dealing explicitly with model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging techniques leads to better forecasts of reversals in asset prices than relying on model selection. Conclusions regarding the importance of dealing quantitatively with model uncertainty are drawn to improve the anticipation of asset price reversals.
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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