ISBN:
9781513510668
Language:
English
Pages:
1 online resource (32 pages)
Parallel Title:
Erscheint auch als
DDC:
306.3
Keywords:
Economics-Sociological aspects
;
Electronic books
Abstract:
Cover -- Contents -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Data -- 3. The evolution of forecasts -- 3.1 Type 1 vs. Type 2 error -- 3.2 Comparing recessions and non-recession years -- 3.3 Information rigidity around turning points -- 4. Comparing consensus and IMF forecasts -- 5. Conclusion -- Appendix -- References -- List of Figures -- 1 Evolution of Forecasts in the Run-up to Recessions -- 2 Consensus Forecasts for USA (2009) and Argentina (2001) -- 3 Evolution of Forecasts during Recessions -- 4 Evolution of Forecasts during Economic Booms -- 5 Consensus Forecast Errors and IMF Forecast Errors -- 6 Summary of Accuracy Test Results - Diebold and Mariano (1995) -- 7 Summary of Accuracy Test - By Country Group -- A1 Evolution of Forecasts for Recession Episodes without Crisis -- List of Tables -- 1 Recessions in Actual and Consensus Forecasts -- 2 Performance During Recessions -- 3 Performance During Recessions, Pre- and Post-Great Recession -- 4 Falsely Forecasted Recessions (Out of 1153 Non-Recession Episodes) -- 5 Information Rigidity - Nordhaus (1987) -- 6 Information Rigidity during Recession Episodes - Nordhaus (1987) -- A1 Data Coverage of Consensus Forecasts -- A2 List of Recessions: Advanced Economies (86 Recession Episodes) and Emerging Economies (67 Recession Episodes) -- A3 List of Recessions: By Year -- A4 List of Booms: Advanced Economies (82 Boom Episodes) and Emerging Economies (93 Boom Episodes) -- A5 List of Boom: By Year.
Note:
Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
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