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  • 11
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Is There a Change in the Trade-Off Between Output and Inflation at Low or Stable Inflation Rates? : Some Evidence in the Case of Japan (2004)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 47 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.379
    Keywords: Economics ; Japan
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between the output gap and inflation in Japan by estimating Phillips curves and testing for changes since the advent of low inflation and/or the stabilisation of the rate of change of inflation. The work provides empirical support for the hypothesis of a change in the relationship between output and inflation in an environment of low inflation for Japan. In particular, there is evidence that the slope of the Phillips curve becomes flatter when the inflation rate is below ½ per cent (quarter-on-quarter, non-annualised) and also that there has been a break in the relationship between demand pressures and inflation in Japan since the beginning of the 1990s. Evidence is also found that the relationship changes when the inflation rate is either rising rapidly or falling sharply. At such times, changes in demand pressure have stronger effects on inflation. These results are robust to a wide range of specifications, including corrections for the ...
    DOI: 10.1787/685810855735
    URL: Volltext
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  • 12
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    Toward a More Efficient Taxation System in New Zealand (2007)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 37 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.557
    Keywords: Economics ; New Zealand
    Abstract: After the radical reforms undertaken in the 1980s, the NZ tax system has long been regarded as one of most efficient within the OECD, and is based on a comprehensive income approach. Looking forward, the country will require a tax regime that helps the economy to continue raising living standards, supports savings and investment and copes with emerging pressures such as increasing geographic mobility of labour and capital. In this context, it will be important to have in place a clear long-term direction for the tax system to guide reforms. There are at least two broad options that are worth considering: adapting the system within a comprehensive income approach or adopting a dual income tax system. Future changes to the tax system need to be consistent with the approach ultimately adopted. In any case, a number of limitations of current tax bases will need to be tackled. This Working Paper relates to the 2007 OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/nz).
    DOI: 10.1787/176055857625
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  • 13
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    The Effect of Financial Crises on Potential Output : New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries (2009)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 20 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.699
    Keywords: Economics
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial crises on potential output. For this purpose a univariate autoregressive growth equation is estimated on an unbalanced panel of OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2007. Our results suggest that the occurrence of a financial crisis negatively and permanently affects potential output. In particular, financial crises are estimated to lower potential output by around 1.5 to 2.4% on average. The magnitude of the effect increases with the severity of the crisis. The occurrence of a deep crisis is found to decrease potential output by nearly 4%, almost twice the amount observed for the average of crises. These results are robust to the use of an alternative measure of potential output, changes in the methodology and in the sample periods.
    DOI: 10.1787/224126122024
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  • 14
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    Explaining the Appreciation of the Brazilian 〈i〉real〈/i〉 (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 23 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.901
    DOI: 10.1787/5kg3krcwd27k-en
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  • 15
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    To what extent do policies contribute to selfemployment? (2018)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1512
    Keywords: 2005 - 2017 ; Selbstständige ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; OECD-Staaten ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: Using cross-country time series panel regressions for the last two decades, this paper seeks to identify the main policy and institutional factors that explain the share of self-employment across European countries. It looks at the aggregate share of self-employed as well as its breakdown by age, skill and gender. The generosity of unemployment benefits, and to a lesser extent, spending on active labour market policies appear to be robust determinants of the long-term share of self-employed in European countries. No significant relation is found between the stringency of employment protection and aggregate self-employment. However, there are significant, and oppositely signed, impacts on high- and low-skilled self-employed separately. Both the tax wedge and the minimum wage appear to be positively related to the share of self-employed in the long term, but the relation holds for some categories of workers only.
    Note: Zusammenfassung in französischer Sprache
    DOI: 10.1787/74c044b1-en
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
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  • 16
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    The impact of COVID-19 international travel restrictions on servicestrade costs (2020)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD trade policy papers no. 237
    Keywords: Trade ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This report casts light on the impact of regulatory restrictions on the movement of people across international borders on services trade costs. Such restrictions were implemented on health and safety grounds following the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020. The analysis relies on several illustrative scenarios in which all the countries are assumed to close their borders to passengers, but leave freight trade open. Services trade costs are estimated to increase by an average of 12% of export values across sectors and countries in the medium term in such a hypothetical scenario. The analysis identifies a large variability in the increase in services-trade costs across sectors and across countries, reflecting the stringency of initial regulations and the relative importance of business travel and labour mobility to international services trade.
    DOI: 10.1787/e443fc6b-en
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 17
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    What drives firm and sectoral productivity in the United Kingdom and in selected European countries? (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1630
    Keywords: productivity ; firm-level ; sectoral ; barriers to trade and investment ; Economics ; United Kingdom ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: This paper examines the link between barriers to trade and investment and productivity performance, in the United Kingdom and selected European countries using both firm-level and sectoral data. Barriers to trade and investment appear to be a robust determinant of productivity in the long term. Control variables such as spending on R&D and human capital also play a role, though their effects depend on the way they are measured or on the sample. The results are robust across a range of productivity measures as well as to changes in the sectoral coverage and the set of controls.
    DOI: 10.1787/36ceb723-en
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  • 18
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    Boosting productivity in the United Kingdom's service sectors (2020)
    Paris, France : OECD
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department working papers no. 1629
    Keywords: productivity ; digitalisation ; barriers to trade and investment ; United Kingdom ; Economics ; Amtsdruckschrift ; Graue Literatur
    Abstract: The United Kingdom has been among the most affected OECD economies by the COVID-19 crisis, reflecting the high share of services in output and its integration in the world economy. Productivity growth in the United Kingdom has consistently underperformed relative to expectations and was more disappointing than in most other OECD economies since at least the global financial crisis. Sluggish productivity growth in the service sectors was the main factor behind this weak performance. Raising productivity will help to sustain employment and wages but will require a broad range of policies. Keeping low barriers to trade and competition in the UK service sectors will create a supportive environment for strong productivity performance. Prioritising digital infrastructure in the allocation of the planned increase in public investment is expected to bring large productivity dividends. Reviewing the system of support to small firms in the light of the COVID-19 crisis will help to re-prioritise resources towards young innovative firms. Further increasing public spending on training to develop the digital skills of low-qualified workers, which have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 crisis, will be a double-dividend policy, boosting productivity and lowering inequality.
    DOI: 10.1787/78f4022e-en
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  • 19
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    Refining Macroeconomic Policies to Sustain Growth in Brazil (2011)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 43 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.899
    DOI: 10.1787/5kg3krfd8txv-en
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  • 20
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    Forecasting Monthly GDP for Canada (2006)
    Paris : OECD Publishing
    Details
    Language: English
    Pages: 22 p. , 21 x 29.7cm
    Series Statement: OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.515
    Keywords: Economics ; Canada
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to develop a short-term indicator-based model to predict quarterly GDP in Canada by efficiently exploiting all available monthly information. To this aim, monthly forecasting equations are estimated using the GDP series published every month by Statistics Canada as well as other monthly indicators. The procedures are automated and the model can be run whenever major monthly data are released, allowing the appropriate choice of the model according to the information set available. The most important gain from this procedure is for the current-quarter forecast when one or two months of GDP data are available, with all monthly models estimated in the paper outperforming a standard quarterly autoregressive model in terms of size of errors. The use of indicators also appears to improve forecasting performance, especially when an average of indicator-based models is used. Real-time forecasting performance of the average model appear to be good, with an apparent stability of the estimates from one update to the next, despite the extensive use of monthly data. The latter result should nonetheless be interpreted with caution and will need to be re-assessed when more data become available.
    DOI: 10.1787/421416670553
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